As expected, nothing went as expected on Opening Day, which only means the baseball season is underway. The White Sox jumped all over Yusei Kikuchi, Clay Holmes proved you can’t trust spring stats (the Astros BABIP’d near .500 on ground balls, but his sinker couldn’t find the plate) and Garrett Crochet couldn’t get the recently retired Kevin Pillar out. The one Opening Day play posted here was a push.
Also not expected, the amount of trouble I continue to have with Office 365. An upgrade I was told would save a lot of time has so far only wasted much more.
We can run through Monday, only manually importing three files, but once we start to use 2025 stats and it gets up to 17, it’s going to be a very big problem. So far, nobody at Microsoft support has given a working solution.
We’re going to be far less wordy for Friday.
All from 2024. Legend at the bottom of the page.
If you find the information on this site helpful, the tip jar is open mtrollo86@gmail.com on Paypal.
Rockies @ Rays
Kyle Freeland was a big velocity gainer last spring, held that velocity, but got smoked in his first four starts before hitting the IL. He held the velocity upon returning too, but was better (14.4 K-BB%), though still suffered from hard contact (11.3% Barrels/BBE). His K-BB (13.6%) was better on the road last season, but his ERA and wOBA against were much better at home. Go figure.
Not much has changed for the Rays offensively and the one thing Colorado has is a defense.
Opp wRC+: 105
DEF: 4/18
B30: 29 – 4.79 – 4.67 – 0.2 (FG proj. rank - ERA - FIP - fWAR)
BSR: -2
We love when Ryan Pepiot goes north (fastball), south (slider/change), but he just hasn’t developed as quickly as we’re used to in Tampa Bay. He still pitched well enough for estimators ranging from 3.64 (xERA) to 4.09 (dERA). The changeup (23.5%) was his best pitch (71 PB, 109 ST+) and one the Rockies really struggled against.
The Rockies certainly have a bottom three offense that comes with no improvements this offseason. The Rays can blame Christopher Morel for -12 of that -17 defensive mark and it’s odd to see their bullpen rank so lowly.
Opp wRC+: 84 (26.6 K%)
DEF: 7/-17
B30: 25 – 4.02 – 4.08 – 1.8
BSR: 3
I’m not touching this park until we see if really does play “like Yankee Stadium with a jet stream out to right”. I have the Rays as slightly smaller favorites than they are, but it’s not something I find actionable. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network to find out which games I do find actionable.
Orioles @ Blue Jays
The biggest difference between Charlie Morton’s 3.64 ERA in 2023 and 4.19 in 2024 was eight more barrels. He held the K-BB steady at 14.6%, but prior to 2023, he had six straight seasons above 18%. A 3.99 xFIP was his best estimator and I don’t expect him to be getting any better at this point in his career.
Opp wRC+: 106
DEF: -1/1
B30: 2 – 3.83 – 3.89 – 4.2
BSR: -8
Kevin Gausman’s velocity was down less than a mph last year with barrels holding steady at 9.7%, but the K-BB went from 23.9% to 14%. The splitter, which never had a Stuff+ grade below 114 before dropped to 99. While the fastball still graded well, batters had a .355 wOBA and .389 xwOBA against it. We usually don’t worry about veterans with declined velocity in the spring, but Gausman does have something to prove and has been down nearly two and a half mph this spring.
Opp wRC+: 115
DEF: 24/25
B30: 20 – 3.93 – 4.07 – 2.5
BSR: 0
I’m skeptical of both these pitchers coming off, essentially league average K-BB% marks last year. I’d be less surprised if Gausman found it again. He is the younger of the two after all, but I’ll make the Blue Jay small favorites for now.
Pirates @ Marlins
I remember when Mitch Keller was the big Pirate pitching prospect. He’s turned into their workhorse as an average pitcher with average stuff. There’s just not a standout pitch. He can snap off a big game (eight outings of more than six innings with two runs or less), but there were plenty of stinkers in there too. Keller was hit hard by LHBs last year (.347 wOBA, .342 xwOBA).
Opp wRC+: 91
DEF: -14/-15
B30: 17 – 4.10 – 4.12 – 2.7
BSR: 2
Connor Gillispie makes his first major league start here. A 2019 9th round pick, he’s already 27, seeing his first major league work with eight innings out of the bullpen for Cleveland last year. He was not impressive (9.4 K-BB%). He has not been impressive this spring (6.6 K-BB%) or really in his minor league career either. His pitch modeling in those eight innings last year was atrocious and projection systems all have him above four and a half runs per nine. Nothing to see here, unfortunately. Weren’t the Marlins loaded with pitching prospects not too long ago?
Opp wRC+: 85
DEF: -28/1
B30: 27 – 4.30 – 4.33 – 0.8
BSR: 1
Bleh.
Red Sox @ Rangers
Tanner Houck was a Cy Young candidate with a 19.6 K-BB% through the end of June (17 starts), but collapsed to a 6.6 K-BB% in 13 starts after that. The splitter solved his issues with LHBs (.263 wOBA), while the sweeper held RHBs in check (.289), although xwOBA pulls both sides up to within a point of .315. What happened to some Boston pitchers (particularly Nick Pivetta) is that batters were picking up on arm angle changes on the sweeper and since they were thrown mostly to RHBs, that was the side that benefited. Houck was smoked for 10 runs in his final spring warmup. Do we care? I don’t know. He’s facing a good lineup with only a few projected batters striking out more than average.
Opp wRC+: 95
DEF: -10/9
B30: 8 – 4.10 – 4.04 – 3.8
BSR: -1
Al Leiter was a late bloomer with the same issues his son, Jack, has exhibited. He couldn’t consistently find the strike zone. He certainly has the stuff (60 grade FB via PB, 59 grade slider) and posted a 22.7 K-BB% at AAA last year. He has nothing left to prove there, but his 8.1 K-BB% last season (35.2 IP) and 12.6 K-BB% this spring need to improve. As does the wOBA and xwOBA above .360 for batters from both sides of the plate against him.
Opp wRC+: 105
DEF: 25/1
B30: 15 – 4.17 – 4.10 - 2.8
BSR: 10
For now, I have the Red Sox as small road favorites, but don’t hate it if you want to take a few shots with Leiter in GPPs. He’s cheap. There should be plenty of strikeouts for him in the bottom two-thirds of the Boston lineup.
Mets @ Astros
Statcast records eight different pitch types for Tylor Megill. Perhaps he needs to cut that in half. Keep the heater (57 PB) and maybe the cutter (57), change (53) and splitter (44). Are you surprised to learn he struck out 27% of opposing batters last year? Because of continued control and barrel issues, he still claimed estimators ranging from a 3.55 FIP (eight home runs on 18 barrels) to a 4.20 xERA. Megill has continued to elevate his fastball and posted a 21.2 K-BB% this spring (66 BF) with just one home run. Perhaps this is the year. It’s probably the last chance he’ll get in this uniform, but there’s reason to be optimistic.
Opp wRC+: 110
DEF: 5/14
B30: 9 – 3.89 – 3.97 – 3.7
BSR: -2
After struggling through the early stages of the season, Hunter Brown posted a 19.4 K-BB% and 2.27 ERA/2.91 FIP/3.18 xFIP split over his final 21 starts. Would you believe increased sinker usage got him there? I mean, he only threw it 23.5% of the time over that 21 start span, but maybe it was more important that he reduced his four-seam usage. PitchingBot grades them similarly, but Stuff+ has the sinker seven points higher (111-104). Brown allowed just a 27.8 HardHit% with 49.2% of his contact on the ground over this run too.
Opp wRC+: 105
DEF: 4/-2
B30: 16 – 3.98 – 4.13 – 2.7
BSR: -5
I find both these pitchers interesting, although this is not a great spot for either of them. It may be the only thing really separating them is defense with the Mets having that edge, but Houston’s home field advantage cancels that out. I have Houston slightly smaller favorites than they actually are.
Cubs @ Diamondbacks
Jameson Taillon is another perfectly average pitcher on the docket. His 3.27 ERA undercut all estimators by at least two-thirds of a run last year because 10% of his runs were unearned and the Chicago defense was top notch. Sounds odd to say because of errors and great defense in the same sentence, but we know defense isn’t just about errors anymore. Both pitch modeling systems loved the slider (63 PB, 118 ST+), but the latter did not see him throwing another above average pitch. LHBs were a bit above average against him last year and he will not find many strikeouts in this Arizona lineup.
Opp wRC+: 113
DEF: 15/34
B30: 19 – 3.90 – 3.98 – 2.6
BSR: 12
Merrill Kelly made just 13 starts last season, missing nearly four months between April and August. His 22.7 K-BB% in September (five starts) was far better than his previous eight starts (10%). He also allowed just four of his 19 barrels in September. Kelly had a 16.7 K-BB% this spring, so its like he’ll be back to his perfectly average self as well. LHBs had a .379 xwOBA last year, but just a .319 wOBA. The Cubs’ projected lineup includes three batters above a 25 K% vs RHP, but otherwise does not strike out much.
Opp wRC+: 102
DEF: 27/21
B30: 7 – 3.89 – 3.97 – 3.9
BSR: 3
This is a pretty vanilla, even matchup, where I give the Diamondbacks some small edges for bullpen, base running and home field advantage.
Athletics @ Mariners
Jeffrey Springs has thrown a total of 49 innings over the last two seasons, 33 of them last year, where his 18.3 K-BB% was his lowest mark since before the pandemic. This could be one of the great pickups by Oak…er…the no city Athletics. Springs did struggle for part of the spring, but finished it with an eight strikeout performance.
Opp wRC+: 96
DEF: -41/-14
B30: 24 – 4.10 – 4.21 – 1.9
BSR: -1
I believe the park disguised a significant decline in Luis Castillo’s stuff last year. His velocity was down 0.7 mph, which itself was down 0.8 mph from 2022. However, he sustained a 22.8 K-BB% at home last season, but just 11.8% on the road. His wOBA allowed increased 43 points on the road. Interestingly, LHBs exceeded a .350 wOBA against him both at home and away. Pitch modeling both still like the sinker/slider combo, but that could be partially park effects too. I think Castillo is a guy we’re looking to attack on the road this year. I think he’ll be fine in this spot at home, but beware there aren’t as many strikeouts in this A’s lineup as you’d think and his velocity was sitting at 94 mph (down another 1.5 mph) this spring. Will he or can he pick it up now that it’s for real?
Opp wRC+: 99
DEF: -13/15
B30: 14 – 3.80 – 3.93 – 2.9
BSR: -4
I can’t make Oakland the better team here. The defense and bullpen are atrocious (aside from Miller), so the Mariners should be small to moderate home favorites here. I don’t hate a live play on the A’s here if Springs comes out strong and Castillo sluggish (DK offering a live bet profit boost pack). Springs is very affordable on DraftKings and could have some value if the defense doesn’t kill him.
Braves @ Padres
It’s not that Reynaldo Lopez was bad in 2024, but I’m absolutely not buying into the 1.99 ERA or even the 2.92 FIP. His next best estimator was a 3.44 xFIP because only 10 of his 31 barrels (8.8%) left the yard. The good news is that none of his estimators reached four, but a 3.94 xERA may give us the best indicator of what could have happened if more of those barrels turned into home runs and he didn’t strand 87% of his runners. Statcast also brings RHBs up 50 points to a .283 xwOBA and LHBs up 24 points to a .329 xwOBA. PitchingBot liked the fastball (56), but Stuff+ did not (99). Stuff+ liked the slider (107), but PB did not (45). He still needs a quality third pitch to excel as a starter and I can buy that he can remain effective in that role, but don’t look for him to be anywhere close to his 2024 performance. Something to at least be aware of is that he was down two mph, while striking out just five of 54 batters this spring.
Opp wRC+: 116
DEF: -3/-8
B30: 4 – 3.83 – 3.85 - 4
BSR: 3
Dylan Cease was also working on a third pitch to neutralize LHBs this year, but he still held them below a .300 wOBA and xwOBA anyway. It wasn’t all smooth sailing, but Cease rode a 20.9 K-BB% and average contact profile to a 3.47 ERA that either matched or exceeded all of his estimators, while remaining within half a run. His slider (61 PB, 112 ST+) remains one of the better pitches in the game (it was best by Statcast run value in 2023). Cease did get four whiffs on the changeup in his last spring training start, in which he struck out nine.
Opp wRC+: 96
DEF: 0/3
B30: 13 – 3.99 – 4.15 – 2.9
BSR: -4
I thought this game would be closer to even and that I would be on the Padres in some form here, but that was surprisingly not the case. I still have San Diego as slightly larger favorites than they are, but not by much. It’s not an easy matchup for either pitcher, but the park does make Cease playable. He’s actually my top overall DFS pitcher on a weaker than expected Day Two board.
Tigers @ Dodgers
It’s funny how these things worse. Jack Flaherty returns to the team where he had his greatest success last season and immediately faces off against the team he was traded to and won a World Series with. Aside from having some familiarity with him, Flaherty went from a 27.5 K-BB% and 93.5 mph fastball in Detroit, with his fastball and slider both owning 56 PB grades to 17.9% at half a mph slower with 49 and 40 grades on the fastball and slider. He was still good with the Dodgers, but this is a pitcher who has gone as his velocity has. Flaherty had an odd reverse split last year, which you don’t normally see from fastball/slider types, though he did add in a curve 21.2% of the time.
Opp wRC+: 117
DEF: 14/10
B30: 22 – 3.92 – 3.96 – 2.1
BSR: 0
We already have 2025 data on Yoshi Yama and it was fine. He only struck out four of 19, but did garner a 15.1 SwStr% with only four hard hit batted balls, none of them being a barrel. A fastball he failed to elevate last year, and there’s some debate on whether it would take away from his splitter if he did, was hit hard at times. However, everything else was so exceptional (splitter 58 PB, 109 ST+, curve 64 PB, but 92 ST+ with a 33.3 Whiff% and .253 xwOBA) that the end result was a 3.00 ERA with all estimators within half a run. Yamamoto had an 80 point reverse spilt, though just 15 points by xwOBA. Not all that surprising for a spitter/curve type. I do think that Carpenter (a very under-rated bat) and Greene could handle mis-placed fastballs, but there should be enough strikeouts here for Yamamoto to thrive here.
Opp wRC+: 97
DEF: -3/-19
B30: 7 – 3.89 – 3.97 – 3.9
BSR: 0
I do see enough value here that the Tigers would be a later season play for me around +160 or above, but I’m a bit more conservative early in the season. This could be another live bet situation if Flaherty appears to have it tonight. Yamamoto falls behind Cease for the top overall spot on the board only because he threw just 73 pitches in his Tokyo start and went five innings or less in 10 of his 18 starts last year. There was an injury involved and they should open it up a bit more this year, but probably not immediately.
I have a busy schedule for the next two weeks. It remains to be seen if we'll have to skip some days, which is more likely if I can't get the excel problems sorted out over the weekend. Hopeful to be back Monday. All my remaining baseball comments will be on bsky.app, same name as Twitter.
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented/projected lineup(Roster Resource) Fielding Run Value
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (remember that teams will only be throwing their top arms and even backend starters out of the pen in a short series, making these numbers less useful)
BSR: Projected Lineup Base Running Runs
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