We have an odd week of baseball with a ton of day games before we settle into a more normal schedule next week. A couple of days won’t even have daily fantasy night slates. I may miss a day towards the end of the week (probably Friday).
The good news is that I seem to have figured out the new excel issues. The bad news is that its just as time consuming as I feared. I have to tear apart every import (breaking tables and erasing data) to start all over again from scratch. Excel 365 won’t copy over a query/connection made from an earlier version of excel.
The good news is that all pitchers for Monday are already posted at noon on Sunday. We’re at the backend of rotations now, which does sometimes mean some interesting and undervalued arms. Or, for the Dodgers, another Ace.
We’ll be keeping with 2024 stats for one more week, unless otherwise noted. Legend at the bottom of the page.
If you find the information on this site helpful, the tip jar is open at mtrollo86@gmail.com on Paypal.
Twins @ White Sox
According to Statcast, Chris Paddack threw a 111 mph pitch in his last spring training outing. I don’t know about all that, but he still needs a pitch to get LHBs out (.347 wOBA, .365 xwOBA last season. All of his estimators exceeded four in 17 starts, but only his 4.84 xERA came within two-thirds of a run among estimators. While that may mean he deserved his results (9.9% Barrels/BBE, 43.1 HardHit%), there is upside. That rings even truer when looking at his pitch modeling grades and 3.49 Bot ERA. The bot loved the change (75) more than Stuff+ (102), as well as the fastball (59, 89). The command is what stood out among both systems though (65, 113), but that really goes against his actual results. A great changeup should be effective against LHBs. It was not. Failure to exhibit a quality pitch against RHBs, he still held them to a league average .316 wOBA, .313 xwOBA.
Opp wRC+: 75 (17.3 K-BB%, 9.1 HR/FB)
DEF: 2/3
B30: 3.81/3.80 (FG proj. ERA/FIP)
BSR: -2
So Martin Perez is back in a starting role for the worst team in baseball. His best estimator and only one below a 4.53 ERA was a 4.48 xFIP last season. Batters from either side of the plate exceeded a .320 wOBA and xwOBA against him, while RHBs exceeded .350.
Opp wRC+: 107
DEF: -34/-29
B30: 4.49/4.63
BSR: -4
The top projected bullen in Fangraphs’ rankings (which goes by projected fWAR, not ERA/FIP) faces the worst projected bullpen and also one of the worst defenses, offenses and pitchers. This is about as large a favorite as you’ll see a marginal pitcher and team be on the road and I’m on board with the Twins winning this game a bit more than 60% of the time. I’d wait for a weather report before considering the total.
Royals @ Brewers
Kris Bubic made his last three starts in 2023 before Tommy John surgery and gained 1.5 mph upon returning in a bullpen role very impressively last year. He similarly ran an impressive 20.7 K-BB% over 21.2 innings and sat similar to his bullpen velocity in his last five inning tune up for the regular season. This is somewhat interesting, but projections for him as a starter sit right around four.
Opp wRC+: 99
DEF: 25/23
B30: 4.09/4.07
BSR: 6
Elvin Rodriguez threw his last three major league innings in 2023 before landing in the NPB last season where 31 of his 32 appearances were made out of the bullpen. He appears to be rotation filler until Woodruff is ready with projections around four and a half. Only three of his five spring training outings were starts, covering just 10 innings with an impressive 27.1 K-BB%, but also three home runs (48 batters).
Opp wRC+: 99
DEF: 23/23
B30: 3.86/3.99
BSR: 7
Your guess is as good as mine here. If the Fangraphs composite projections are accurate for the starters and bullpens, than the current line is correct too.
Red Sox @ Orioles
Since the start of the 2019 season, Sean Newcomb has thrown 167 innings with only 11 starts, none of them coming in 2024 and several of those in an opening role. This looks like another place holding role (Giolito?). He’s still throwing a 91 mph fastball, but has developed a new cutter and had an 18.9 K-BB% over 14.1 spring training innings. No projection system has him below four and a half runs per nine this year though and that’s with only two starts and 60 innings.
Opp wRC+: 115
DEF: -10/21
B30: 4.02/3.96
BSR: -1
It remains to be seen whether Cade Povich will maintain his spot in the rotation once Grayson Rodriguez and Kyle Bradish return, but this audition will last An 80 inning rookie season featured just a 9.9 K-BB% with 8.9% Barrels/BBE. However, his 5.20 ERA was above all estimators, running as low as a 4.11 xERA and Statcast drops his .350 wOBA against RHBs to .312. He does have some prospect pedigree and posted a 19 K-BB% this spring. His PitchingBot grades range from 43 (sinker) to 55 (sweeper), though that sweeper was his only above average pitch by Stuff+ (111).
Opp wRC+: 101
DEF: -1/-4
B30: 3.80 – 3.86
BSR: 8
They’re all small edges, but the O’s have every one of them, including home field, except for base running. The line and total feel right.
Rockies @ Phillies
German Marquez threw his only four innings last season the week of the All-Star break. He threw just 20 in 2023 as well. Prior to that, he recorded three straight seasons with a sub-15 K-BB%, so we’re probably not getting that 21.2 K-BB% from 2018 back. In fact, there isn’t a projection system on Fangraphs that doesn’t have him above four and a half. I would say that the Rockies are just looking for him to be healthy enough to trade, but whoever knows what the hell the Rockies are thinking? His spring was extremely unimpressive (2.8 K-BB%).
Opp wRC+: 104
DEF: 4/22
B30: 4.79/4.64
BSR: 0
I have shares of Christopher Sanchez for Cy Young at 40 to 1 and think he’ll out-perform Aaron Nola to be the second best pitcher on the Phillies at worst. Sanchez stifled hard contact last season (57.4 GB%, 34.5 HardHit%, 5.4% Barrels/BBE) with great control (5.8%) and I think his strikeout rate (20.3%) has a chance to improve with increased velocity this spring (26.2 K-BB%). After 181.2 innings last season, he may even hit 200 this year.
Opp wRC+: 78
DEF: 9/-2
B30: 3.97 – 4.11
BSR: 4
I very much have the Phillies as the substantial favorite they are and have not found even a small positive edge on any of the four games covered so far. It’s baseball, so things seldom go as expected, but I would be greatly surprised if Sanchez had trouble with the Rockies.
Rangers @ Reds
After posting a 36 K-BB% in three levels of minor league play last year (36.2 IP), Kumar Rocker got a three start cup of coffee with the Rangers, striking out 14 of 55 batters, but also walking six. It was odd to see him not hold his minor league velocity (98.1 mph), but 96 will get it done too and he was back up to 98 this spring. The slider (39 PB, 110 Stuff+, -1.5 RV) has been replaced by a curveball. Perhaps it will be enough to counter LHBs, but he’ll still need another pitch. It was good enough to strikeout out eight in his last tune up. The Rangers will probably go as far as Rocker and Leiter allow them this year and I don’t necessarily think that’s a bad thing.
Opp wRC+: 89
DEF: 25/5
B30: 4.10 – 4.07
BSR: 6
Brady Singer moves from the most power suppressing park to the least and I don’t think that’s good for him. Sinker/slider over 80% of the time and neither pitch modeling system liked either of those pitches. Yet, he rode them to a 3.71 ERA that was within one-third of a run of all his estimators, except for a 4.65 xERA. It wasn’t necessarily, the barrels (8%), but 41.7 HardHit% overall that led to a .302 BABIP and that’s 12 points lower than his career average. Batters with the platoon advantage blasted him for a .371 wOBA and xwOBA last year.
Opp wRC+: 95
DEF: -16/8
B30: 4.44/4.46
BSR: -2
Having this game even, I thought this might be a chance to take the Rangers at plus money, but that’s not the case. In fact, the Reds are slight dogs (+105 DK), showing my first positive value of the day, but at just one percent.
Mets @ Marlins
Despite going off-season hip surgery limiting him to 21 starts last year, David Peterson threw a career high 121 major league innings with a 2.90 ERA. In part, only eight of his 26 barrels left the yard (3.67 FIP), but every other estimator exceeded four. Peterson had just a 10.8 K-BB%, though he did keep 50.1% of his contact on the ground. The main disconnect was against RHBs (.312 wOBA, .356 xwOBA). There as also some disconnect on his slider, previously his best pitch, which returned a -1.3 RV/100 last year and fetched a 40 PB grade last year, in stark contact to it’s 109 Stuff+ with the latter model still considering it Peterson’s only above average pitch.
Opp wRC+: 75
DEF: 5/14
B30: 3.86 – 3.95
BSR: 2
Cal Quantrill is probably on his last legs as a starter after failing in Colorado and landing in Miami. A 4.87 xFIP was his only estimator below a 4.98 ERA and batters from both sides of the plate exceeded a .345 wOBA and xwOBA.
Opp wRC+: 105
DEF: -28/0
B30: 4.28/4.31
BSR: -7
Even a heavily regressed David Peterson should be able to handle this spot. I do find the strikeout prop for Quantrill a bit high though (3.5u +120). He went under this number in 13 of 29 starts last year and only faced 41 batters in four spring starts (just 12 last time out). I don’t think they’re looking for length from him here.
Pirates @ Rays
Carmen Mlodinski was used in an opener role four times last season and was also used that way ths spring. The conclusion is that he may be serving as an opener for a bullpen game here.
Opp wRC+: 92
DEF: -14/-17
B30: 4.11/4.13
BSR: -2
Drew Rasmussen underwent Tommy John surgery after eight starts in 2023 and returned as a reliever for 28.2 innings last season. He’ll now be re-converted into a starter for the second time in his career. His only full season of starting merited a 16.1 K-BB% in 2022 and he was on his way to improvement in 2023 (20.3%), returning with a 25 K-BB% out of the bullpen in 2024. Projection systems average around three and a half. Rasmussen has thrown just 10.1 innings with a 17.1 K-BB% this spring. You may not get much length out of him here, but I like his prospects returning to a starting role.
Opp wRC+: 83
DEF: 7/-11
B30: 4.04 – 4.12
BSR: 0
I show value on the Pirates, as is, but who knows what we’ll get from Rasmussen in a starting role, who’ll come in behind Mlodinski or what this park plays like after only a few games (5, 3 & 10 runs)?
Nationals @ Blue Jays
Last year was the first time Mike Soroka threw more than 32.1 innings since 2019. It started with a 0.0 K-BB% through nine starts, but then a 26 K-BB% in 36 more innings out of the bullpen. Seven of those relief outings were at least three innings and increased slider usage (41.6%) convinced some teams he could be a quality starter again. That’s not really what happened this spring (2.9 K-BB%). I’m a bit skeptical.
Opp wRC+: 106
DEF: -18/2
B30: 4.30/4.41
BSR: -8
Bowden Francis got some hype with a 1.53 ERA over his last nine starts, which included a .125 BABIP. He also pitched very well in those starts with a 23.2 K-BB% (just seven walks) and nine barrels (6.3%, 33.6 HardHit%). Both the fastball and splitter graded extremely well via PitchingBot over that span, while remaining above average by Stuff+ too. Some of that BABIP came from having a great defense behind him (.268 allowed), a luxury he’ll once again be afforded.
Opp wRC+: 95
DEF: 24/25
B30: 3.99/4.11
BSR: 1
Despite feeling that Francis is the better pitcher here and a reasonable DFS option on a rough slate, I can see myself siding with the Nationals if this line gets much higher. They have a lot of young talent and should improve in many areas.
Angels @ Cardinals
The changeup is worth something (60 PB, 97 ST+, 1.6 RV/100). It’s why he was much better against RHBs, but are you trusting him to .258 BABIP again? Also, seven of 83 runs were unearned. With a 33.3 HardHit%, a 4.37 xERA was his best estimator.
Opp wRC+: 91
DEF: -25/-10
B30: 4.18 – 4.30
BSR: 7
Every one of Miles Mikolas’s pitches exceeded a 50 Pitching Bot grade. Only his slider (114) exceeded a 100 Stuff+ grade. Batters from either side of the plate were between a .325 and .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him las year with all estimators well below his 5.35 ERA, but still above four. He still doesn’t walk anyone (3.5%), but the strikeout rate was down to 16.9%. This may be one of the few offenses he should still be able to handle.
Opp wRC+: 89
DEF: 15/4
B30: 3.92 - 4.07
BSR: -10
I have the Cardinals as larger favorites than they are here. They’re off to a hot start and St Louis was one of the best offenses in the league against changeups last year, which would neutralize Anderson’s only real strength. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network to track plays.
Giants @ Astros
The Jordan Hicks starting experiment ended a bit prematurely when he was moved to the pen after the break and allowing 20 runs over his final 22 innings as a starter. After reaching 100 innings, he made just a single September appearance. Despite the plethora of young pitching available to the Giants, they’re going back to the well. The velocity was there in his last spring start. You’re going to get ground balls (50.9% last year), but he’s also going to walk batters (9.8%) and not miss a ton of bats (20 K%). Batters with the platoon advantage destroyed Hicks for a .372 wOBA and .398 xwOBA. Not really a problem here, except for a major problem against Yordan Alvarez.
Opp wRC+: 110
DEF: -4/20
B30: 3.74 – 3.81
BSR: -2
Ronel Blanco can pop a big game every once in a while, but the 14.5 K-BB% is just average. He allowed hard contact on just 35.5% of batted balls, but that still generated 9.3% Barrels/BBE. He won’t sustain the .220 BABIP or 83.6 LOB% that procured a 2.80 ERA without an estimator below four, but he should be a fine back end arm. His changeup was the only pitch either pitch modeling system saw as above average (59 PB), though Statcast brough a .290 wOBA against LHBs up to a .338 xwOBA.
Opp wRC+: 93
DEF: 4/-2
B30: 3.99 – 4.11
BSR: 8
I don’t really buy in to either of these starters, but they’re fine as back end pitchers and Blanco is probably even usable in a daily fantasy lineup. The Giants have small edges here and the right-handed nature of the Houston lineup should play into Hicks’ hands. I thought I might be on the Giants here, but the line is surprisingly in line with my projections.
Guardians @ Padres
Luis L. Ortiz showed signs of competence last year. Enough so that the Pirates moved him to the starting rotation around the All Star break. He ran through a rough patch where he struck out just 14 of 116 batters afterward, but finished with a league average 14.5 K-BB% (21.8%, 7.3%) over his last seven starts. Some people see more in him, but I think that’s his ceiling in a starting role. His 3.32 ERA was the product of six unearned runs and a .243 BABIP. A 4.25 FIP was his only estimator within a run, while his arsenal grades as average across both pitch modeling systems. It’s not a terrible matchup in a favorable park, but there are still few strikeouts here from a daily fantasy perspective. LHBs had a .300 wOBA, but .352 xwOBA against Ortiz last year.
Opp wRC+: 116
DEF: 7/20
B30: 3.79 – 3.87
BSR: 3
Kyle Hart has taken the Erick Fedde path to relevance, doing his thing in the KBO last year. He only has 11 innings for the Red Sox in 2020 to his major league resume, while most projection systems have him around four and a half or higher. The lefty has to be crafty because his fastball is barely hitting 90 mph this spring. He did record a 13.9 K-BB%, but across only 36 batters with three home runs allowed.
Opp wRC+: 114
DEF: 0/3
B30: 3.98 – 4.17
BSR: 4
Both of these teams declined this off-season, though they still also have enough bats to do damage on occasion. The Guardians were great against LHP last year and that shouldn’t suffer this year. I still see the Padres as the slightly better unit though the Guardians will have the better defense.
Tigers @ Mariners
Jackson Jobe is here. Let’s see what you got prospect. After striking out just two of 16 batters at the end of last season, Jobe’s projections lean above four and a half runs per nine after posting a mere 13.6 K-BB% throughout the minors last year, including double digit walk rates at AA and AAA. An 11.1 K-BB% and five home runs across 63 batters was enough to win him the job this spring. Some people feel he has relief risk and the Tigers haven’t had a lot of success turning pitching prospects not named Skubal into successes in recent years.
Opp wRC+: 107
DEF: 14/13
B30: 3.83 – 3.90
BSR: -2
Emerson Hancock has been the pitching depth in Seattle the last few years. He made 12 starts last year with a 14.6 K% and 46% hard hit rate. He didn’t have a single estimator below five and some were even more than a full run above his 4.75 ERA. While LHBs were held to a .309 wOBA against him, batters from either side exceeded a .360 xwOBA. His pitch metrics grade out marginally on Pitching Bot and negatively via Stuff+. He did post a 17.7 K-BB% across 62 batters this spring though, so maybe he’s found something.
Opp wRC+: 97
DEF: -13/3
B30: 3.78 – 3.94
BSR: -1
Safeco or T-mobile or whatever they’re calling it these days is generally your one stop for all your daily fantasy pitching needs. While these aren’t generally the profiles you’re looking for in a daily fantasy starter, the board is weak enough that they can be considered though each reaches $8K or more on DraftKings. This is another spot I thought I might be on the Tigers as a dog, but that’s not the case.
Cubs @ Athletics
Ben Brown was used in a swingman role in 2024 with eight of his 15 appearances coming in a starting role. He posted an extraordinary 20.2 K-BB%, but was smashed on contact (51.4 HardHit%), resulting in a 4.17 xERA about half a run above his ERA (3.58) and remaining estimators. Statcast raises his .226 wOBA against RHBs over 100 points (.329 xwOBA). Brown threw his fastball or curveball over 98% of the time. While PitchingBot graded both pitches averagely, Stuff+ loved the curve (124), but hated the fastball (85). He does have some numbers on the board this season already, striking out five of 15 batters in a 2.2 inning relief outing, throwing 65 pitches in Japan. Brown impressively walked just two of 58 batters this spring, but still probably needs a third pitch to remain effective in a starting role.
Opp wRC+: 99
DEF: 15/26
B30: 4.09 – 4.22
BSR: -5
Joey Estes posted a 5.01 ERA last year and only his FIP (4.94) was below that number. He struck out just 16.9% of batters, while a 29.6 GB% led to 9.7% Barrels/BBE despite a 39.6 HardHit%. Batters from either side exceeded a .320 wOBA and xwOBA against him. Still competing for a job, he was down a mph in his last spring start and was smashed for eight runs, finishing with a 9.3 K-BB% across 75 batters faced. I’m not sure why he’s the best choice here.
Opp wRC+: 102
DEF: -41/-14
B30: 3.93 – 4.00
BSR: 3
Sutter Health was the most pitcher friendly park in a very hitter friendly PCL. Unknown how it will play as a major league park. It’ll be warmer with less foul ground than Oakland and could play more neutrally. Brown is a sneaky DFS option because he could pile up strikeouts here, but there’s risk he gets smashed too. I have the Cubs as only slightly larger favorites than they actually are here.
Braves @ Dodgers
Grant Holmes pitched well out the bullpen and also surprised in seven starts last year. In his 68.2 total innings, a 3.56 ERA was within half a run of all estimators and one-fifth of a run of all non-FIP ones. Approaching a 20 K-BB% (24.8%, 5.3%), Holmes managed contact well (38.5 HardHit%, 6.3% Barrels/BBE) and held batters from either side of the plate between a .289 and .312 wOBA and xwOBA. Pitch modeling is not in love with his arsenal, but do see the slider and curve as at least major league offerings. Holmes struck out two of three Padres in an inning of relief already, but posted just an 8.1 K-BB% across 62 batters this spring.
Opp wRC+: 117
DEF: -3/-8
B30: 3.89 – 3.88
BSR: 0
Tyler Glasnow threw his last major league pitch on August 11th of 2024, but still hit a career high 134 innings pitched. A 69.8 LOB% pushed a 3.49 ERA more than half a run above all estimators with a near average contact profile behind a 25.5 K-BB%. Glasnow struck out nine Angels in his last tune up. The Braves ran just a 42 wRC+ and 26.1 K% in San Diego this weekend. If there’s any concern here, it’s workload. The Dodgers are often cautious with their starters.
Opp wRC+: 96
DEF: -3/-19
B30: 3.90 – 3.95
BSR: -4
The Dodgers are healthy favorites here, as they should be. I would be hesitant to trust Holmes (or anyone) against this Dodger offense and I’m sure Glasnow will be in most daily fantasy lineups tonight. He costs $1K more than anybody else.
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented/projected lineup(Roster Resource) Fielding Run Value
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
BSR: Projected Lineup Base Running Runs
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