First large slate of the season, two short of the full 15 with 11 on the daily fantasy slate. We have a few pitchers coming around for their second start with some teams still on the backend. I was making good time on Monday night until my phone started beeping an extreme tornado warning.
We’re still using 2024 stats. Legend at bottom of page.
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Rangers @ Reds
Nathan Eovaldi was down near a mph on Opening Day, but dominated with 25.3% curveballs (never reached 20% in a season). Ten of his 17 whiffs came on that pitch. He struck out nine Red Sox. While LHBs remain a problem (.311 wOBA, .336 xwOBA last year), he’s a comfortable upper-threes ERA type starter.
Opp wRC+: 89
DEF: 25/5
B30: 4.10 – 4.07 (FG proj. ERA/FIP)
BSR: 6
Carson Spiers is place holding here for awhile. His 13.2 K-BB% this spring matches his 12.9% in a swing role last year.
Opp wRC+: 95
DEF: -16/8
B30: 4.44 – 4.46
BSR: -2
Mets @ Marlins
These two pitchers combined to make one start last year. Senga began the season on the IL, came off for five innings in July and went right back on until the postseason. His 18.6 K-BB% over 171.2 innings is very impressive. He was hit or miss in a few spring training starts, ultimately striking out nine of 37 batters with just two walks. Six of those strikeouts came in his final tune-up.
Opp wRC+: 91
DEF: 5/14
B30: 3.86/3.95
BSR: 2
Sandy Alcantara returned from Tommy John surgery as if nothing had changed. Averaging 98.2 mph, he got 16 whiffs on 91 pitches. He did walk four, but seven of nine batted balls were on the ground. Alcantara could be pitching for a New York team later in the year.
Opp wRC+: 105
DEF: -28/1
B30: 4.28 – 4.31
BSR: -5
Projections for Alcantara are around one-eighth of a run lower than Senga with both in the three and a half to four run range. We have a difference of 32 cents from the F5 line (MIA +104) to the full game (+136) and that seems a bit too much. These two pitchers may end up being of similar quality, but Alcantara has proven it already this season, while Senga has not yet this year. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network to for more information.
Pirates @ Rays
Thomas Harrington is the #6 prospect in the Pittsburgh system (Fangraphs). The 23 year-old has a 45 Future Value grade. He walked just 4.1% of batters in 117 innings at AA & AAA last season, while the changeup is his bat missing pitch. This, along with a marginal slider could make him home run prone and suggest a possible reverse split at the major league level. Projection systems are a bit above four and a half on average.
Opp wRC+: 92
DEF: -14/-24
B30: 4.11 – 4.13
BSR: -1
Shane Baz made his major league debut in 2021 and has only thrown 119.2 major league innings since, including a career best 79.2 last year after missing all of 2023. After exciting with a 21.7 K-BB% over his first 40.1 innings, he dropped to a league average 13.2% last year, which is around where he’s projected this season. The good news is that he’s hit 100 mph this spring. The bad news is that he walked more batters (five) than he struck out (four) and hasn’t thrown a competitive pitch in over two weeks.
Opp wRC+: 83
DEF: 7/-10
B30: 4.04 – 4.12
BSR: 0
This is one of the very few unprotected solid hitting spots tonight. While Baz has a great matchup regardless, he hasn’t shown any reason to trust him recently.
Diamondbacks @ Yankees
Corbin Burnes has gone from an elite pitcher to one whose outings depend more on the shape of an inconsistent cutter over the last year or so. He certainly wasn’t bad in Baltimore, but a 17.1 K-BB% was his worst since a 38 innings rookie season in 2018. He kept his ERA below three by allowing just 31.6% hard contact, but even then a 3.34 xERA was nearly half a run higher and that was the best of his estimators. He posted a 27.8 K-BB% this spring, but was smoked for seven runs in his last start. I’m not concerned. Let’s see if Burnes can get back to dominance.
Opp wRC+: 120
DEF: 27/21
B30: 3.90 – 3.92
BSR: 2
Will Warren has a very talented right arm (20 K-BB% in 109.2 AAA IP last year), but really struggled with hard contact in his 22 inning major league sample (17.3 K-BB%, 50 HardHit%). You’d rather this than an inability to find the plate or miss bats. In truth though, command has been a bit of an issue and he hasn’t shown a pitch that can consistently get LHBs out yet.
Opp wRC+: 113
DEF: 4/21
B30: 3.94 – 4.06
BSR: 12
The Yankees are very small home dogs here. That’s a bit surprising, but actually exactly what I project too. Both teams have torpedoed their way out of the gate this year. The Yankees with a 239 wRC+ and the Diamondbacks at 164. Depending on the weather, this could be another sneaky high scoring game.
Nationals @ Blue Jays
Do you know who was surprisingly productive in 2024? Trevor Williams. That’s who. With a 15.8 K-BB%, 6.6% Barrels/BBE and 39.3 HardHit%, Williams produced a 3.17 xERA without a single estimator reaching four. It’s unlikely he’ll see similar success again and forget about the 2.03 ERA (three home runs on 12 barrels with an 80% strand rate), but PitchingBot really likes the fastball (64). Stuff+ (93 overall) may want him to just go away, but at this point, he’s fine as a fifth starter if he only sustains the Ks and walks part of it.
Opp wRC+: 106
DEF: -18/8
B30: 4.30 – 4.41
BSR: -8
Jose Berrios had a very familiar performance on Opening Day. A 12.5 K-BB% (12.6% last year), but three home runs. Not every third fly ball will continue to leave the park and 43% of batted balls won’t drop for hits, but estimators ranged from 4.20 (dERA) to 4.74 (xERA) last year. That’s a below average pitcher. Stuff+ didn’t see any of his pitches as average either.
Opp wRC+: 95
DEF: 24/19
B30: 3.99 – 4.11
BSR: 1
Trevor Williams legitimately had better numbers than Jose Berrios last year. Sure, it was a smaller sample and we don’t expect a repeat performance, but some of it suggested sustainability. While Berrios can do enough to help you win a GPP, he can also win you one when you stack against him on occasion. I believe these two pitchers may be on the same level, while the Nationals weren’t that far behind the Blue jays offensively last year and may be catching up. The defense should be better as well. I see the Nationals as a team I’m likely to be on as larger dogs than they should be early on and it starts here at +136.
Twins @ White Sox
Simeon Woods Richardson ran contact neutral estimators around four and a half and contact inclusive ones a bit better than that. He did not have a very impressive spring. There were reports of 20 inches of iVB on the heater in his last start though. Both pitch modeling systems love the changeup (66, 107). This is the make or break year for SWR. The Twins have some fun prospects coming up behind him.
Opp wRC+: 75
DEF: 2/-3
B30: 3.81 – 3.80
BSR: -2
The White Sox have been doing it with pitching so far (78 wRC+ going into Monday) and now it’s Shane Smith debuting. The 24 year old is not a prospect of note, but did post a 22 K-BB% in near 100 minor league innings last season, mostly at AA. He struck out 11 of 42 with four walks this spring. He was a Rule 5 draft pick from Milwaukee with questionable secondaries. Projections are around four and a half.
Opp wRC+: 107
DEF: -34/-29
B30: 4.49 – 4.63
BSR: -3
The Twins had a 37 team wRC+ heading into Monday, when they were shut down again.
Royals @ Brewers
With a reverse split, RHBs exceeded a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against Michael Lorenzen last year, who did not have a single pitch reach a 50 PitchingBot grade and he threw seven or eight of them. He had a 3.31 ERA without an estimator below four and a half (.236 BABIP, 82.4 LOB%). His last spring start returned a single swing and miss on 78 pitches.
Opp wRC+: 105
DEF: 25/13
B30: 4.09 – 4.07
BSR: 6
The 26 year old Chad Patrick threw his first and only major league inning last year, walking and striking out one each of the six batters he faced. He struck out 10 of the 38 batters he faced this spring with a single walk. Projections aren’t terrible, a bit below four and a half, but with the expectation of a bullpen role and only 33 innings pitched. Patrick posted a 19.1 K-BB% in 136.1 AAA innings last season.
Opp wRC+: 99
DEF: 23/24
B30: 3.86 – 3.99
BSR: 4
I’m not sure what to make of Patrick, but Lorenzen is generally a guy I want to stack RHBs against.
Angels @ Cardinals
Kyle Hendricks made a living defying his estimators for years, until he didn’t. He posted a 5.92 ERA without an estimator reaching five or one falling below four and a half last year. Now he’s over here and the one thing I don’t think he’s ever experienced before is a defense as bad as this one projects to be. LHBs exceeded a .360 wOBA and xwOBA against him in 2024.
Opp wRC+: 101
DEF: -25/-10
B30: 4.18 – 4.30
BSR: 5
The Cardinals will give the Matthew Liberatore experiment another go. His 4.40 ERA last year, flipping between starting and relieving, was above, but within 0.4 runs of all estimators. RHBs exceeded a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against him. He struck out just nine of 62 batters this spring. Dude needs a changeup.
Opp wRC+: 94
DEF: 15/-2
B30: 3.92 – 4.07
BSR: -10
If the weather cooperates, I wouldn’t mind attacking these pitchers in daily fantasy.
Giants @ Astros
Logan Webb decided to lay off the changeup in his first start in Cincinnati. He struggled with his other secondaries and struggled a bit with only half his contact on the ground and half of it reaching a 95 mph EV. He’s coming off another solid season with an ERA and contact neutral estimators in the mid-threes. The FIP is below three because his barrels don’t leave the park in San Francisco, though all the hard contact (46.2% since last year) drives the xERA above four. Perhaps he’ll avoid the changeup here too with only Alvarez projected from the left-hand side.
Opp wRC+: 110
DEF: -4/20
B30: 3.74 – 3.81
BSR: -2
Seven of Hayden Wesneski’s 28 appearances last year came in a starting role. The swingman had numbers similar to Webb overall with contact neutral estimators just a bit higher and the contact profile driving the xERA above four (9.3% Barrels/BBE). He also exhibited a bit of a reverse platoon with some fortune that a .335 xwOBA against RHBs was just a .296 actual wOBA. That’s actually a bit surprising, considering his sweeper is the best graded pitch via PB and Stuff+.
Opp wRC+: 93
DEF: 4/-2
B30: 3.99 – 4.11
BSR: 8
Guardians @ Padres
Trying to separate Logan Allens is tiring and entirely not worth the time. His best estimator was a 4.58 dERA last year with RHBs owning a wOBA and xwOBA above .400. Too bad it’s a pitcher friendly park with cool weather.
Opp wRC+: 96
DEF: 7/21
B30: 3.79 – 3.87
BSR: 3
Much like last year, Michael King had an extremely rough initial outing, putting himself in a hole to start the season. He was all over the place and couldn’t generate whiffs, though the stuff looked fine. With a 27.5 K% and 30.3 HardHit% since last year, he should be fine.
Opp wRC+: 95
DEF: 0/10
B30: 3.98 – 4.17
BSR: 5
While this is a great environment for pitching, neither team strikes out enough to make these pitchers very daily fantasy relevant. I don’t hate King in a bounceback spot here, but I would never consider Allen, a low strikeout pitcher against a contact prone offense.
Tigers @ Mariners
Casey Mize posted a career high 49 GB% last year and his rate of barrels dropped below 10% for the first time (7.9%), but he also complied just a 10.8 K-BB% with the worst hard hit rate of his career (44.6%). However, he struck out 25 of 75 batters this spring, leaning into his slider, while dialing back the heater in favor of sinkers to RHBs. This has potential. His command grades have been strong.
Opp wRC+: 107
DEF: 14/4
B30: 3.83 – 3.90
BSR: -2
Pure domination by Logan Gilbert in his Opening Day start. He generated 16 whiffs, while allowing just two hits without a walk, striking out eight. Building upon a 25.9 K-BB% at home last year, Gilbert should be the Cy Young if he can avoid road starts.
Opp wRC+: 97
DEF: -13/3
B30: 3.78 – 3.94
BSR: 2
Once again, T-Mobile is here for all of your daily fantasy pitching needs. Gilbert is the unquestioned top overall arm tonight, while Mize may be one of the better values if his March performance carries through.
Cubs @ Athletics
Justin Steele is the first pitcher to make his third start of the season, though he’s pitched just nine innings because the first start was in the middle of spring training still. There was a bit of a carryover into his stateside Opening Day start. He’s throwing more sinkers, not really commanding well or missing bats (9.0 SwStr%). It should all eventually work itself out. His worst estimator is a 3.75 SIERA since last year with batters from either side below a .280 wOBA and xwOBA last year.
Opp wRC+: 106
DEF: 15/42
B30: 3.93 – 4.00
BSR: -3
Luis Severino really leaned into his sweeper in his first start in Seattle, much like he did late last year and continued to have success, striking out six of 25 batters with just one barrel, though he did walk four. The sweeper merited strong pure stuff grades from both pitch modeling systems in the start, but dropping back to average when including command and location of it.
Opp wRC+: 102
DEF: -41/-20
B30: 4.09 – 4.22
BSR: 3
Similar weather to last night at Sutter Health, which you would think leaned more towards pitchers, but the Cubs nearly put up 20 runs. Severino probably has less upside in this matchup than he did in Seattle, while I don’t hate Steele for less than $9K in a high upside spot. Again, the temperature should make this park play hitter friendly tonight, though there is a bit of wind out to right, probably hurting Severino more than Steele.
Braves @ Dodgers
Chris Sale’s Opening Day start in San Diego was impressive in the fact that he struck out seven of 22 Padres with a 14.3 SwStr% with seven of 13 batted balls on the ground and only one barrel. The slider and change both graded as above average offerings. The fastball graded just average though and he was BABIP’d a bit (.429). As long as he’s healthy, he should be fine, but this is an even tougher spot.
Opp wRC+: 121
DEF: -3/-6
B30: 3.89 – 3.88
BSR: 4
Can you believe Dustin May came up in 2019. He was referred to as Gingerguard because Noah Syndergaard was still a thing at that point. In six seasons of major league service, he’s totaled 191.2 innings with none of those coming in 2024. May struck out 12 of 42 batters this spring (good), but also walked six (bad). However, the PitchingList blurb on his last spring start noticed that he was favoring high heat to LHBs. He struck out six and walked two in 68 pitches. I’m intrigued, but not so much here. Not necessarily because of the Braves, but because he’s unlikely to hit 80 pitches.
Opp wRC+: 96
DEF: -3/-20
B30: 3.90 – 3.95
BSR: -6
Weird weather in Los Angeles. It’s mid-fifties, but with a 20 mph wind out to right. Probably hurts May more than Sale. This is really a tough spot to figure out.
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented/projected lineup(Roster Resource) Fielding Run Value
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
BSR: Projected Lineup Base Running Runs
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