Wednesday’s slate is full with 15 games, but 11 of them during the afternoon. Today’s article will only be covering games of interest or potential interest. The early theme through the first week has been losing games late, including two in extra-innings in St Louis already. Let's go for a third.
Stats are through last season with a Legend below.
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Rangers @ Reds
Not covering this game in depth, but both Jack Leiter and Hunter Greene looked better in their first starts of the season. For Leiter it was a low bar, but a start. For Greene, he's headed towards All-Star territory and maybe more. This should be a fun watch.
Pirates @ Rays
Ditto for this game, but while Paul Skenes is already a Cy Young candidate, Ryan Pepiot is looking to break out and took a big step forward in his first start (19 inch iVB on the heater with 16 swings and misses and just one walk).
Royals @ Brewers
Both Cole Ragans and Freddy Peralta struggled on Opening Day, but considering what the Yankees did to the rest of the Milwaukee staff in that series, I'm at least a bit impressed with the eight strikeouts, though six of his 11 batted balls against were hard hit.
Angels @ Cardinals
After convincing myself that Yusei Kikuchi was a reasonable Opening Day option, especially against the White Sox, he got 11 whiffs without a walk, but did not look good. His velocity was down and his pitches had less break.
Opp wRC+: 91
DEF: -25/-10
B30: 4.18 – 4.30
BSR: 7
Sonny Gray’s velocity was also down, as it has been all of March, but unlike Kikcuhi, Gray recognized this and just stopped throwing his fastball (11%), pitching very well against Minnesota. These pitchers are very similar in many ways. Both had ERAs much higher than their contact neutral estimators due to problems in the contact profiles. And both were down in velocity in their first start.
Opp wRC+: 89
DEF: 15/4
B30: 3.92 – 4.07
BSR: -10
Two similar pitchers with similar problems, though Sonny Gray is still probably the better of the two if both had to pitch with the reduced velocity. At least he should be able to find ways to keep the ball on the ground if need be. I’m willing to admit that the Cardinals may not have an offensive edge here, but they certainly have significant edges in defense and base running and home field advantage. I like St Louis F5 here (-135). Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for more.
Twins @ White Sox
I got nothing, but I'll leave it here in case somebody else does.
Nationals @ Blue Jays
The Blue Jays haven't confirmed it, but have suggested Easton Lucas will get the start here. He's a 28 year-old lefty reliever with just 18 major league innings to his name, but I want to talk about the other guy for a minute.
I did very well riding MacKenzie Gore's breakout early in the 2024 season. He did hit a wall and hit it hard mid-season, but also endured that and came out of it towards the end of the season. Regardless, I read some negative things about him (his pitching, not his character) over the offseason and this spring (PitcherList ranked him last among 28 Opening Day starters), enough to turn my opinion around. Even to the point of playing LH Philadelphia bats against him because of his large reverse split. And wouldn't you know the son of a bitch broke out a new slider and dominated LHBs. There may be some classification issues between it and the cutter, but he got 20 swings and misses overall. I guess I'm back on board and surprised that Washington are small favorites here.
Cubs @ Athletics
Jameson Taillon got smoked in his first start, but the A's don't have the LHBs to take advantage of his platoon problems. Jeffrey Springs turned it on towards the end of spring and carried it into his first start, striking out nine Mariners. Tougher test here, obviously.
Guardians @ Padres
Ben Lively was pressed into Opening Day service when Tanner Bibee was scratched and was fine on short notice, but don't expect him to sustain his 3.81 ERA from last year with all estimators above four.
Dylan Cease has been the only pitcher to struggle against the Braves so far, but he did look good early, striking out seven before hitting a wall in the fifth. I wonder if a predominantly left-handed Cleveland offense that does not strike out much could give him more trouble.
Tigers @ Mariners
Even Cy Young winners struggle against the Dodgers. If Tarik Skubal has another tough time in Seattle this afternoon, then I might be concerned. Luis Castillo's velocity remains down. T-Moble can hide him a bit, but watch out on the road.
Giants @ Astros
Landon Roupp is a 26 year-old who can miss bats, but needs to get his walk rate into single digits. Framber Valdez shut down the Mets three times through the order, despite not having his best stuff. Only 47.4% of his contact was on the ground with four strikeouts.
Mets @ Marlins
Clay Holmes had trouble finding the plate on Opening Day and didn't last five innings. He walked eight of 72 batters this spring. Connor Gillispie projects for an ERA near five. The Marlins have already opened the roof four times this year after just 12 all of last season. And they've been winning when they've done so.
I think I'm supposed to grab the fish with this line creeping above +170, but I can't fire on Gillispie.
Red Sox @ Orioles
Shouldn't the Red Sox have waited to see if this Garrett Crochet kid is any good before giving him all that money? The Orioles struggled against fastballs after the break last year. Zach Eflin two hits, two runs, two strikeouts in his first start.
Rockies @ Phillies
Kyle Freeland spiked velocity to start last season, still got bombed, then got injured. But he did come back sustaining that velocity and pitched well. He dominated the Rays on Opening Day and I don't know why there are no velocity readings. Does that park not have Statcast? No, I'm not suggesting you go out and play the Rockies. Zack Wheeler should have a field day with this lineup after carving up the Nats. I'm just saying maybe we pay attention.
Diamondbacks @ Yankees
I don't like this spot at all for Zac Gallen, whose velocity is now below 93 mph, after getting spanked by the Cubs on Opening Day and even though Carlos Rodon looked great against the Brewers, the Diamondbacks punish LHP. However, the forcast for Wednesday in the Bronx is mid-40s and rain.
Braves @ Dodgers
The Dodgers are going to make Music from the Elder. If that was too obscure a musical reference for you, Blake Snell wants to get rid of That Smell from his first start. He walked twice as many Tigers as he struck out, but that's Snell sometimes.
Elder had an xERA and Bot ERA over five last year, while LHBs had a .400 wOBA and .373 xwOBA against him. Let's go with the Dodgers to exceed their run total (4.5 -118).
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented/projected lineup(Roster Resource) Fielding Run Value
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
BSR: Projected Lineup Base Running Runs
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