Very small five gamer on Thursday. A very busy schedule just got even busier dealing with medical stuff, so Friday…and basically the rest of the month are on a day by day basis. I’ll be here when I can.
I find it ironic that I get the least visits on smaller slates, which is understandable because a lot of it is daily fantasy oriented, but those are also the days where I'm able to go into the most depth. Some of those notes may be able to help later on when I can't go into as much depth on a pitcher. (Shameless pleading for views.)
All stats from last season at this point. Legend at the bottom of the page.
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Red Sox @ Orioles
Tanner Houck was smoked in his final spring training start, which did in fact carry over to his first outing of the regular season. Although his velocity on all pitches was actually up half a mph compared to last season. He failed to achieve a single whiff on 19 splitters, while his sweeper was sweeping three inches less. PitchingBot grades the pitches overall at 38 and 41, while Stuff+ has them at 81 and 96. These grades include command. Quite frankly, this is yuck. Best case scenario, there is no injury and he figures it out, but I have no read on him right now.
Opp wRC+: 115
DEF: -10/9
B30: 4.02 – 3.96 (Fangraphs projected ERA - FIP)
BSR: -2
On the other hand, we know that Charlie Morton is on his last legs, though his velocity was actually up, which may have been adrenaline. The results were still poor. While he generated nine whiffs on 80 pitches, how about an 85.7 HardHit%. YIKES! The Bot and Stuff+ overall grades on his curveball (28.7% thrown) were 51 and 64, both down substantially from last season. On the fastball he threw 40% of the time? Those grades were 25 and 37. On scales of 20/80 and where 100 is average.
Opp wRC+: 105
DEF: 1/-10
B30: 3.80 – 3.86
BSR: 10
I have to see something out both these pitchers in order to trust either one after those disastrous performances and underlying numbers. One would say, why not an over? Weather in the east has been crazy. It’s hot, its cold and winds are whipping all over the place. Sometimes heavy rains too. Worst thing that could happen to an over is one or both of these pitchers leaving early due to weather.
Rockies @ Phillies
Antonio Senzatela allowed 11 of the 21 batters he faced in his first outing of the year to reach base via hit or walk. NONE of them scored! He did not strike out a batter. In fact, he has walked 10 batters, striking out only seven in 16.2 innings since the start of last season. Senzatela had a 5.07 Bot ERA without a single pitch grade reaching 50 for his first start.
Opp wRC+: 104
DEF: 4/22
B30: 4.79 – 4.64
BSR: 0
Batters from either side of the plate exceeded a .375 wOBA and xwOBA against Taijuan Walker last year with 13.4% Barrels/BBE and a 7.09 xERA. His K-BB was 5.5%. He faced 79 batters this preseason and generated almost as many home runs (six) as strikeouts (eight).
Opp wRC+: 84
DEF: 9/-2
B30: 3.97 – 4.11
BSR: 4
Yuck with the same weather issues as Baltimore.
Astros @ Twins
According to Statcast on Fangraphs, Hunter Brown was up 1.8 mph in his first outing, striking out seven on 13 swinging strikes. He did make some mistakes and Juan Soto deposited one of them deep into the right field stands, but it was an otherwise solid outing for a pitcher who generated 49.1% of his contact on the ground last year with just 4.5% Barrels/BBE. All of his offerings exceeded a 110 Stuf+ overall grade against the Mets with only the cutter (the pitch Soto homered off of) below 50 via PitchingBot. He’s becoming a solid #2.
Opp wRC+: 107
DEF: 4/-12
B30: 3.99 – 4.11
BSR: -3
After throwing his last pitch of the 2024 season in early August, it was kind of important to see what kind of start Joe Ryan got off to. The news is mixed. His velocity was down over a mph from last season, but up more than a mph from what he was throwing this preseason. Yet, he threw that fastball 65.4% of the time with fewer splitters and sliders. He struck out five of 21 without a walk, missing only seven bats over 81 pitches. Only five batters made hard contact (35.7%). Only the fastball received an above average grade from PitchingBot, but 10 points lower than last season, while Stuff+ graded it nine points better than last year (127), but no other pitch reached an 80 grade. Ryan may still be able to produce at a lesser velocity. He’s throwing as hard as he had been in 2023 and before, but also was more average than All Star in those years too.
Opp wRC+: 110
DEF: 2/-3
B30: 3.80 – 3.81
BSR: -5
Stop me if you've heard this one before. Cold and windy, but the google report for Target Field doesn’t include any rain at least. Both guys at their peak, I’m taking Joe Ryan at this price. Now, it’s more of a tossup, which is a tossup.
Diamondbacks @ Yankees
Merrill Kelly made just 13 starts in 2024 with the results you might expect from a decent pitcher suffering through an injury plagued season. All of his estimators were up from the previous season and above four. Kelly posted a 16.7 K-BB% with three home runs in 15.1 preseason innings (66 BF), which seemed like a favorable omen, but he couldn’t find the plate, walking four of 23 Cubs in his first start. Kelly struck out just one on eight whiffs. Only his fastball graded above average, which is concerning, considering he threw six different pitches at least five times. However, considering the 27.8 HardHit%, the low grades probably had to do with command more than stuff. Last season, LHBs had a .319 wOBA, but .379 xwOBA against Kelly, who has no actual split for his career (.304 both sides).
Opp wRC+: 120
DEF: 27/21
B30: 3.90 – 3.92
BSR: 2
I’ll say this much for Carlos Carrasco. He wasn’t the worst pitcher in the league least year. In fact, he didn’t have a single estimator reaching five, despite the 5.79 ERA. He was a bit unfortunate that 19 of his 26 barrels left the park, while his 12.7 K-BB% was closer to average than terrible. All that said, he didn’t actually have a single above average pitch and no one would confuse him with peak Carrasco, which we haven’t seen in half a decade now. The same 12.5 K-BB% and several pitching injuries shipped him a spot in the Yankee rotation to start the year. Carrasco has already faced 11 batters in relief, striking out two. His velocity was up a mph, in line with 2023, when he was much worse. Though that was also a mph lower than most of his career. It may have been the short appearance though because Carrasco was sitting lower than last year this spring, while fighting to keep his career afloat. The end is near, but maybe Carrasco has a few starts in him.
Opp wRC+: 113
DEF: 4/21
B30: 3.94 – 4.06
BSR: 12
Wet and windy, though not as cold. Two more struggling pitchers. I think these teams are fairly close, though I’ll still give the Diamondbacks a starting pitching edge in this one. Adding in the home field advantage for the Yankees and I have this one about even. Hey, so do the sportsbooks. Will ya look at that?
Reds @ Brewers
Aside from the lack of strikeouts (just one of 23 batters), Nick Lodolo was fine in his first start. He only allowed a single barrel without a walk, while 13 of 21 batted balls were on the ground. Ground balls aren’t a bad deal in that park and it’s not like nine whiffs on 86 pitches is nothing. It’s actually perfectly league average. His pitch modeling grades were solid. Lodolo made 21 starts last year with a slight split (RHBs .313 wOBA, .311 xwOBA) and a 4.67 ERA that was two-thirds of a run above his worst estimator (4.01 FIP). His strand rate was a bit low (68.2%) with a perfectly average profile (16.7 K-BB% since last year, 8.2% Barrels/BBE). A lot of people seem to think he still has more upside in him. The ground balls would be new, since he’s never generated more than 46% in a season, but not something I’d trade strikeouts for as a daily fantasy player.
Opp wRC+: 99
DEF: -16/4
B30: 4.44 – 4.46
BSR: 6
Let’s try and put a positive spin on this. Nestor Cortes’s fourth pitch of the game against the Yankees was not hit more than 400 feet. His first three…(shrug emoji). He gave up five home runs overall, but in order to make his home runs not feel lonely, he also walked five. I don’t know why he was allowed to go through the order twice. He was down a mile and a half per hour, but his PB grades weren’t terrible and Stuff+ really liked the slider (121). What’s that? Oh, he only threw four? It’s not like Cortes was cooked last year. His ERA and most estimators are now slightly above four if we add this start to last season, but without it, he generated a 3.62 xERA with 7.9% Barrels/BBE. Also, only three of his five home runs were barreled. He only allowed four hard hit batted balls (out of 10). Yes, in fact, one of the home runs he allowed wasn’t even classified as hard hit. The wind was blasting out of Yankee Stadium that day.
Opp wRC+: 84
DEF: 23/23
B30: 3.86 – 3.99
BSR: 5
Using the overall numbers, I see some value on the Brewers, but watching that Cortes start, I can’t pull the trigger on him just yet, but could next time out if he gets the velocity back and does a bit better here. I’d be more concerned about the walks. The good news? At least this one is in a dome.
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented/projected lineup(Roster Resource) Fielding Run Value (Statcast)
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
BSR: Projected Lineup Base Running Runs
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