Friday is the home opener for many teams in the league, which gives us a large day game slate with a few more night games than Wednesday, but we’re going to stick with a similar format. Minor notes on most games with a few deeper writeups. At some point next week, we’ll get into more 2025 stats, as they start to build with pitchers coming around a third time.
Stats are from 2024. Legend at the bottom of the page.
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White Sox @ Tigers
Jonathan Cannon pitched relatively well against the Angels on a pitcher friendly day in Chicago. Nothing really stood out. ERA and estimators around four and a half as a major league pitcher with LHBs exceeding a .340 wOBA and xwOBA.
Opp wRC+: 97
DEF: -34/-29
B30: 4.51 – 4.60 (FG proj. ERA – FIP)
BSR: 2
The velocity was there and Jack Flaherty pitched about as well as one could hope for against the Dodgers, but the slider grades were surprisingly low (29 PB, 52 ST+) at 26.5% usage, so perhaps he got away with something. It got whiffs (42.9%), but weren’t otherwise strikes. Flaherty has a reverse split since last year (RHBs .315 wOBA, .311 xwOBA).
Opp wRC+: 75
DEF: 14/15
B30: 3.90 – 3.96
BSR: -2
Feels like a cold ugly one.
Cardinals @ Red Sox
Any words about Erick Fedde pitching an afternoon game in Boston are probably too many words when trying to get through 14 games.
Opp wRC+: 105
DEF: 15/-2
B30: 3.93 – 4.05
BSR: 10
Remember Walker Buehler’s postseason start at Citi Field, which encouraged me to get into the whole head/tailwind thing? Well, this wasn’t that. Buehler carried diminished stuff and poor command from the preseason into his first start and was down two mph. The slider graded positively, but everything else was awful. It wasn’t the weather either. This game was in Texas.
Opp wRC+: 101
DEF: -10/9
B30: 4.07 – 3.99
BSR: 5
As unremarkable as Fedde is, if I had a lean in this game, it would either be towards the Cards (146 wRC+ to start the year vs Red Sox below 50) or an over (game or Cards total). Early weather looks slightly pitcher friendly.
Padres @ Cubs
LHBs had a wOBA and xwOBA above .400 against Randy Vazquez last season. He threw the kitchen sink against Atlanta (six pitches), utilizing the cutter most against LHBs (15x). It graded marginally. His velocity was also down a mph, while he walked more than he struck out.
Opp wRC+: 102
DEF: 0/10
B30: 3.98 – 4.17
BSR: 2
Second start much better than the first for Shota Imanaga. Fastball received elite grades in Arizona. Should be similar to last year. A strong play early in the season at Wrigley. Despite a 40% hard hit rate and just 10 ground balls over two starts, he’s yet to allow a barrel.
Opp wRC+: 96
DEF: 15/31
B30: 3.95 – 4.03
BSR: 3
More cold and wet than windy for Wrigley, going by the early google forecast. If Imanaga just keeps it in the park, his defense should take care of the rest. I could see him running a very low BABIP (.264 last year).
Blue Jays @ Mets
Kevin Gausman recovered last season’s lost velocity and more. Let’s hope it sticks and wasn’t just the adrenaline from the first start. However, the splitter wasn’t missing bats and was graded a below average offering, even though the Orioles didn’t really do much damage.
Opp wRC+: 105
DEF: 24/19
B30: 3.99 – 4.11
BSR: -5
Against an almost entirely right-handed Houston lineup, Tylor Megill went almost exclusively fastball, sinker, slider. Curious to see if he comes back with more cutters, splitters, curves against more LHBs. After pitching well this spring, he looked strong against the Astros, up over half a mph with half his contact on the ground and just one walk. The only negative aspect was a 58.7 HardHit%, but I’m happy if he’s throwing strikes.
Opp wRC+: 106
DEF: 5/14
B30: 3.86 – 3.95
BSR: -8
Would you believe Tylor Megill has been the better pitcher, by about one-third of a run, over the last year?
Athletics @ Rockies
Osvaldo Bido can’t throw enough strikes (10.7 BB% since last year, four walks in Seattle first start) to become interesting for me and Coors turns an awful Colorado offense into an average one.
Opp wRC+: 84
DEF: -41/-14
B30: 4.15/4.24
BSR: 2
The Rockies have this thing where their pitchers will try to miss bats on the road (better K-BB), but opt to generate ground balls at home and Ryan Feltner is no different. I’m not sure it helps anything. He has a career 9.2 K-BB% with a 45.2 GB% at home.
Opp wRC+: 99
DEF: 4/24
B30: 4.86 – 4.69
BSR: -5
Coors is no longer an automatic over park because, partially as I mentioned above, the offense is so bad that the Coors effect only makes them average. They also have some decent pitching, which showcases better on the road.
Yankees @ Pirates
Is this a pattern with Max Fried now? He seems to start the season off with a stinker or two every year now. He ended up where he usually does last year, but took a much higher variance path to get there. The Yankees let him throw 94 pitches and face 29 batters. The secondaries graded well.
Opp wRC+: 93
DEF: 4/9
B30: 3.98 – 4.07
BSR: 2
Despite only eight whiffs, Mitch Keller made it work against the Marlins. It’s a bit of a concern that his fastball was down more than a mph, as an average pitcher, but probably the workhorse of this rotation right now. Yet, the fastball received elite grade with more iVB. Purposeful? He goes from the worst offense to maybe the best.
Opp wRC+: 120
DEF: -14/-13
B30: 4.14 – 4.13
BSR: -3
The Yankees came into Thursday with a 183 wRC+ on the season and probably increased it.
Mariners @ Giants
This was Bryce Miller when I started this article. That’s the danger of running the numbers early. Now it’s Luis Castillo. No, not that Luis Castillo. They have two? Yes, they clone their pitchers in Seattle. At least it’s not as bad as having two Max Muncy’s playing every day. Clonestillo is so far off the radar, he doesn’t even have projections. The 30 year old threw his only three major league innings in 2022 and has been pitching in foreign leagues the last two seasons.
Opp wRC+: 93
DEF: -13/3
B30: 3.81 – 3.95
BSR: 8
The velocity was actually slightly up from last year (94.1 mph) and he got 10 whiffs, but it was the Reds and half of his contact was hard hit. A lot of disagreement on pitch grading between PitchingBot and Stuff+ with the latter a little more optimistic. This is another favorable spot in a better park.
Opp wRC+: 107
DEF: -4/20
B30: 3.77 – 3.82
BSR: -2
Verlander should be able to outpitch a journeyman and it’s not like this park is much of an upgrade for the Seattle offense. Most people fail to recognize that Seattle was a top 10 offense against RHP last season because of the park suppression and all the strikeouts.
Diamondbacks @ Nationals
There are many who are lower on Brandon Pfaadt than I am. His pitches have elite modeling numbers. I understand the other side of the argument. LHBs had a .348 wOBA and .340 xwOBA against him last year. He pitched well against the Cubs, who have a balanced lineup, but allowed a 52.6% hard contact rate. It’s a good offense with some quality left-handed hitting. The fastball, the slider and even the curveball, which he threw more often, graded above average.
Opp wRC+: 95
DEF: 27/14
B30: 3.90 – 3.91
BSR: 1
As the curveball goes, so goes Jake Irvin, but he increased his changeup usage by 20 points against the Phillies. It didn’t miss bats and almost scored higher on PitchingBot (53) than Stuff+ (73), despite two completely different scales. The curveball graded extremely well, despite allowing 12 hard hit batted balls out of 18 total with just two strikeouts. Curveballs can be a platoon buster, but not for Irvin, who allowed a .331 wOBA and .339 xwOBA to LHBs last season.
Opp wRC+: 113
DEF: -18/8
B30: 4.35 – 4.44
BSR: 10
We’re now into the daily fantasy portion of our program and I’m more apt to target these pitchers with LHBs than to utilize them. Both teams stack the top half of the order with LHBs. The Nationals are an improved offense that doesn’t strike out a lot, though they are an inexperienced bunch who may chase and Pfaadt may be too cheap. There’s certainly justification for exposure to both sides of that matchup.
Dodgers @ Phillies
I feel somewhat justified in my concern about Yoshi Yama’s workload last time out at just five innings, though 91 pitches after just 73 in his first start was a bit more than I expected and he struck out 10 Tigers. The Phillies should be a tougher matchup in a tougher park. The cutter is a pitch he used a bit more against Detroit (though still just 7.7%) with an elite grade. Pitch modeling is in love with just about everything through two starts.
Opp wRC+: 104
DEF: -3/-11
B30: 3.87 – 3.93
BSR: 0
We targeted Jesus Luzardo in his first start and paid for it. We got the good version against the Nationals, striking out 11 on 18 whiffs. The secondaries were smoking. His overall pitch grades were spectacular. The fastball was up over a mile and a half per hour after being down as much last year. A good sign after an injury plagued season. Luzardo had about a 50 point reverse split last year, but Statcast gives him a 50 point normal split.
Opp wRC+: 121
DEF: 9/-2
B30: 4.08 – 4.12
BSR: 4
Concerns over Yamamoto’s workload have been quelled, but now the price is high in a tougher spot. Luzardo intrigued in his first start, but I’d still rather attack him than roster him in this matchup. If he shines here again, we’ll have to reevaluate.
Marlins @ Braves
Twelve whiffs and seven strikeouts against the Pirates, Max Meyer was up 1.5 mph, retaining his spring training velocity, throwing more sinkers and sliders too, the majority of his whiffs on the latter (58 PB, 126 ST+). The faster fastball only graded out as an average pitch and I’m not sure he has anything to shut down LHBs (.378 wOBA, .337 xwOBA), but he’s a more interesting pitcher than he was last year, reclaiming some of his last prospect shine if this continues.
Opp wRC+: 96
DEF: -28/1
B30: 4.35 – 4.37
BSR: -5
Also twelve whiffs, but only four strikeouts for Spencer Schwellenbach in San Diego, but I’m less concerned against a contact prone lineup like that, especially with just one hit and a walk. He should dominate this lineup. His pitch grades were down compared to last season, but still better than average. LHBs did own a .327 wOBA and .320 xwOBA against him last season, but I don’t think that’s an issue the Marlins can exploit.
Opp wRC+: 91
DEF: -3/3
B30: 3.94 – 3.91
BSR: 2
Hear me out. I’m not saying I have the gumption to pull the trigger on this, but if the line climbs much higher, Meyer may be an improved pitcher and while the Marlins have just an 89 wRC+ this season, that’s twice the Braves (44), who had just a 96 wRC+ last year compared to the Marlins 91. We do have to factor in that the Braves have faced mostly stud pitchers in San Diego and Los Angeles so far though and Schwell is the top pitcher on this slate, though also the most expensive.
Orioles @ Royals
Dean Kremer can occasionally spike a big one to make you reconsider, but more often than not, it’s a lot of barrels (9.8% last year). While he held RHBs to a .276 wOBA last year, batters from either side of the plate exceeded a .320 xwOBA. Stuff+ liked him (105 overall), but PitchingBot didn’t (4.50 Bot ERA with only one above average pitch). Six of 15 batted balls against Toronto were hard hit with just five on the ground.
Opp wRC+: 99
DEF: -1/-10
B30: 3.79 – 3.86
BSR: 4
I feel like I have to keep defending my position on Seth Lugo. He’s a nice pitcher, but not a Cy Young contender. Pitching in a power suppressing park, non-FIP estimators are all more than two-thirds of a run higher than his 3.06 ERA since last season. Statcast classified 10 different pitches for him last season, none of them thrown more than 20% of the time and only the curveball (59) an above average PitchingBot grade, while both the cutter and curve received a 106 from Stuff+ with everything else below 100. He struggled against a predominantly left-handed Cleveland lineup in his first start (.301 wOBA, .308 xwOBA last year) with the changeup his only PitchingBot grade above 45 or Stuff+ one above 90. I feel lots of people are going to be disappointed when he’s a league average pitcher this year.
Opp wRC+: 115
DEF: 25/21
B30: 4.11 – 4.08
BSR: -2
Kansas City remains the sneakiest positive run environment in the league. Because it suppresses power, it’s more of a stacking situation, but I would rather attack either pitcher than roster them.
Rays @ Rangers
Zach Littell was a bit more spectacular than usual, striking out seven Rockies without a walk on 14 whiffs (87 pitches). The splitter was his only above average pitch last year (68 PB), but he still generated a competent 3.98 Bot ERA. Pitch grades were a bit better against Colorado, but that’s barely a major league offense. With 9.6% Barrels/BBE last year and a 21.8 K%, his real value is in making batters earn their way on base (4.6 BB%). Batters from either side of the plate exceeded a .310 wOBA and xwOBA against him in 2024 though.
Opp wRC+: 95
DEF: 7/1
B30: 4.00 – 4.07
BSR: -2
Tyler Mahle pitched just 12.1 innings returning from Tommy John last year. The good news is that the fastball averaged 93.1 mph in his first start, up from last year, spring training and even 2023. If you want more good news, avert your eyes because you’re not getting any here. He threw 61 pitches, lasting just 11 batters into the Boston lineup, walking four. The splitter (21.3%) and slider (9.8%) did grade well. The Rays may have a bit of strikeout in them if he can recover, but I’m not ready to bet on that yet.
Opp wRC+: 92
DEF: 25/5
B30: 4.13 – 4.09
BSR: -2
Most people expect a much better performance from a Texas offense that underperformed last year, but it hasn’t started off that way (74 wRC+). Littell is far too expensive in a marginal at best spot though, for what he provides. I’m not sure what to do with the other side of this, but I’m not expecting Mahle to pitch deep into this game.
Reds @ Brewers
I admit that I kept waiting for the bottom to fall out on Nick Martinez last year, but he legitimately earned his spot in this rotation. The Giants did pop him for two home runs and four runs in six innings, but he only allowed four hard hit balls (23.5%), striking out five of 23 with a walk. His 3.09 Bot ERA and 108 Stuff+ mark point to better work than a 6.00 ERA. Martinez set a career high 17.2 K-BB% last year, holding batters from either side of the plate below a .285 wOBA and xwOBA splitting time between the rotation and pen.
Opp wRC+: 105
DEF: -16/8
B30: 4.50 – 4.46
BSR: 6
This sounds like it’ll be 23 year-old Carlos Rodriguez, who started three games last year, but doesn’t have much in the way of projections this year (12 innings in relief). He struck out five of 29 this preseason with one walk, but hit three batters. Fangraphs last updated his prospect status in 2024 (40 FV grade).
Opp wRC+: 89
DEF: 23/24
B30: 3.93 – 4.04
BSR: 6
I know very little about Rodriguez, but don’t trust that Cincinnati offense on the road aside from a bat or two. Martinez looks to be a nice value around the $8K price point or less.
Guardians @ Angels
Everybody seems to be waiting for Gavin Williams to find that secondary pitch that will allow him to break out. The fastball is great (64 PB, 121 ST+) and even up a mph (97.5) in his first start, which made him throw it 62.2% of the time, but what else you got? He generated just six whiffs and two strikeouts against the Royals. RHBs were within three points of a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him last year and the Angels bat predominantly from that side.
Opp wRC+: 89
DEF: 7/19
B30: 3.83 – 3.92
BSR: -10
Jose Soriano also likes to throw the ball hard, in his case the sinker (46.4% last year, 64.4% first start), though it was down a mph. Didn’t stop him from dominating a poor White Sox offense. His five strikeouts came on only five whiffs and he has just a 20.8 K% since last year. There’s not a lot of upside here unless you love ground balls (59.7% last year, 73.3% first start) and I don’t imagine it’ll increase against a contact prone Cleveland offense. However, he too had a reverse split (RHBs .340 wOBA, .331 xwOBA) and Cleveland generally stacks a lineup full of LHBs against RHP.
Opp wRC+: 95
DEF: -25/-10
B30: 4.20 – 4.27
BSR: 5
I have no extra particular insight into this game from a daily fantasy perspective. It’s the game I’d most likely attempt to avoid, but I do want to point out that I went through 14 games tonight and only found two sides with even a little bit of value (Cardinals and Marlins, though I’m not pulling the trigger on either yet because I still have too much doubt). I’m generally more conservative with less information earlier in the season, but that books seem particularly sharp early on this year. There were three or four lines I cooked up where I thought I would surely be on a team here, but was surprised to see the market matching my line. Often times, the best bet is the best bet.
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented/projected lineup(Roster Resource) Fielding Run Value
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (remember that teams will only be throwing their top arms and even backend starters out of the pen in a short series, making these numbers less useful)
BSR: Projected Lineup Base Running Runs
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