Last year, the goal was to get this up and running, find my limits and see what I could accomplish here. This year, the goal will be growing traffic. The move from Twitter to Blue Sky, along with political ramblings have cost me followers and readers and I don’t really care about that. However, if I’m only doing this for 20-25 people by the time the All Star break roles around, I’m not sure I can continue to justify the time put into it. Especially with much more going on outside baseball right now.
The problem is that I’m a terrible self-promoter. You know what inevitably happens when you proclaim how great you are to the world and baseball is a game even more humbling that most. At the same time, I should be spicing up the tweets and trying to find ways to draw more eyes here at the very least.
Eleven games start the week on Monday, one in the afternoon. We’re at the backend of some rotations the second time around, but some are coming around for the third time at the top. This should be a strong pitching slate.
Still 2024 stats in most spots. Will mention where not, but should be onto 2025 stats across the board by either end of the week or start of next. Legend at the bottom of the page.
If you find the information on this site helpful, the tip jar is open at mtrollo86@gmail.com on Paypal.
Yankees @ Tigers
Carlos Rodon’s velocity dropped two full mph from his first to second start and he walked four Diamondbacks and allowed two barrels. It was just a completely different start than his opener against Milwaukee. Which guy are you expecting to show up in Detroit? It’s a far more favorable spot and we’re looking at cold and windy.
Opp wRC+: 88
DEF: 4/21
B30: 4.00 – 4.08 (FG proj. ERA - FIP)
BSR: 2
Pitching in Seattle will hide some flaws and that’s what happened in Casey Mize’s first start. To start with, he was down almost 1.5 mph. The slider was the only pitch incurring a positive PitchingBot grade, though Stuff+ was more encouraged with the arsenal as a whole. He survived three walks because he struck out six Mariners with just two hard hit batted balls (18.2%), but unlike his opponent, Mize takes a massive step up in class here. They Yankees have a 154 rolling seven days wRC+ as of Sunday.
Opp wRC+: 120
DEF: 14/9
B30: 3.91 – 3.96
BSR: 2
Both pitchers were a bit disappointing last time out. The Tigers are no longer pushovers, but may still struggle against LHP.
Cardinals @ Pirates
Despite striking out just nine of 62 batters this spring, Matthew Liberatore won a spot in this rotation over Steven Matz. He struck out just four of 22 Angels (5.2 SwStr%) first time out, but at least didn’t walk anyone and only allowed hard contact on five batted balls (27.8%). It’s a similarly favorable spot here in a park that punishes RH power similar to his home park.
Opp wRC+: 93
DEF: 15/-2
B30: 3.93 – 4.06
BSR: 0
I wrongly assumed that Carmen Mlodzinski would be serving as an opener in his first start, as he did four times last season, but they gave him 66 pitches and 19 batters. Unfortunately, that only got him through 3.2 innings in Tampa Bay. The velocity was actually up from last season (96.6 mph) despite having to throw far more pitches than usual, but that’s about all it is with just a 6.1 SwStr%. Both pitch modeling systems liked the slider though (40.9%, 68 PB, 125 ST+), which was just an average pitch last season.
Opp wRC+: 101
DEF: -14/-15
B30: 4.16 – 4.15
BSR: 5
This game is kind of just unexcitingly there. It’s likely going to be cold and potentially wet in Pittsburgh, while the Cardinals are coming off a double header, including the Sunday night game.
Dodgers @ Nationals
Dustin May looked sharp in his first start back from Tommy John surgery. It’s incredible to remember that he arrived in 2019 and has never thrown more than 56 major league innings in a season. The velocity was down substantially (95.4 mph), but it was encouraging to see him locating fastballs upstairs and still generating ground balls on two-thirds of contact with sinkers. Five of his nine batted balls were hit hard, but without a barrel and a healthy 11 whiffs on 81 pitches. I don’t think the Dodgers will go much further than that with him for a while. The Nationals like to stack six LHBs right at the start of the lineup against RHP, but LH Braves had just a .069 wOBA and .160 xwOBA against May, facing mostly sweeps (18), fastballs (15) and sinkers (13) with just four cutters.
Opp wRC+: 95
DEF: -3/-10
B30: 3.91 – 3.96
BSR: 1
MacKenzie Gore didn’t get to feature his new wipeout slider as much against the Blue Jays as he did the Phillies without LHBs. The fastball still graded strongly, though not as elite as his first start, while the curveball (up to 25% against Toronto) was marginal at best. Gore allowed four barrels with just three ground balls in this start and has a 52.5 HardHit% through two. Still a work in progress apparently and we’re unlikely to get much insight from this matchup.
Opp wRC+: 121
DEF: -18/8
B30: 4.36 – 4.45
BSR: 2
With Freeman on the IL, Gore will still get to test out that slider some more on Ohtani and maybe Conforto, but few lineups will throw more than a LHB or two at a southpaw like the Phillies, so even if he now has that new weapon against him to knock down that reverse split, RHBs still have a .315 wOBA and .311 xwOBA against him since last year. He needs to be better than average against them.
Blue Jays @ Red Sox
Easton Lucas’s first major league start saw him allow just one hit, walking two of the 18 batters he faced with three strikeouts (11 whiffs, 74 pitches). Only two batted balls reached a 95 mph EV (15.4%). He’s now a 28 year-old with 23.1 major league innings to his name and very little ink.
Opp wRC+: 101
DEF: 24/25
B30: 4.01 – 4.12
BSR: 8
Richard Fitts drew some hype with a velocity increase and was, in fact, up a full mph (95.5) over his four major league starts last season in his first start of this season. Though, it was still not the fastball we saw in spring training and the results were marginal (eight whiffs, 71 pitches) in Texas. He threw his slider 56.3% in this start (50 PB, 102 ST+).
Opp wRC+: 106
DEF: -10/-5
B30: 4.07 – 3.99
BSR: -8
Red Sox are playing the same double header the Cardinals are on Sunday, but without having to travel. Cold, wet and windy is the forecast.
Marlins @ Mets
With Sanday Alcantara hitting the paternity list, the Marlins have yet to name a starter. Roster Resource is guessing Tyler Phillips, which is as good a guess as any. Two multi-inning relief spots this year, seven starts for the Phillies last year. Batters from the right-hand side exceed a .390 wOBA and xwOBA against him. Phillies has just a 16.9 K% and has allowed 13.8% Barrels/BBE in the majors.
Opp wRC+: 105
DEF: -28/1
B30: 4.36 – 4.38
BSR: -5
Kodai Senga was down a mph from 2023 and his lone start last year first time out, but the splitter dominated the Marlins, responsible for half of his 16 whiffs (77 pitches). Stuff+ gave it a 156 grade. PitchingBot does not grade the pitch. Seven of 11 batted balls were on the ground and Senga did walk one batter early to go with his eight strikeouts.
Opp wRC+: 91
DEF: 5/14
B30: 3.86 – 3.95
BSR: 2
We’ve reached the DFS portion of our program. Cold and wet is the forecast for Monday. If they are able to play this game, Senga is in a great spot in a great park, but costs at least $9K and could be limited to 85 pitches or so. The only thing holding players from attacking Miami pitching would be the weather and park. There is no market for this game yet, but expect the Mets to be substantial favorites.
Rangers @ Cubs
Nathan Eovaldi six innings of two run ball against the Red Sox by shutting out the Reds in Cincinnati. He’s struck out 17 of 51 batters without a walk and a 17.2 SwStr% (in each start). He’s generated contact on the ground on 60.6% of batted balls. However, he was down a further mph (93.5) after being down from last year in his first start (94.6). While the heater graded below average, secondary pitches were all graded strongly in this start. The Cubs have a rolling 165 seven day wRC+ going into Sunday.
Opp wRC+: 102
DEF: 25/5
B30: 4.10 – 4.08
BSR: 3
Justin Steele is already making his fourth start of the season. He’s allowed five home runs, as all of his barrels have left the park. He otherwise struck out six of 28 A’s with just one walk, but only seven swinging strikes and Steele still hasn’t hit 80 pitches in any of his three starts. It’s been a tough start, but I don’t see any reason yet that Steele shouldn’t put it together at some point.
Opp wRC+: 97
DEF: 15/42
B30: 3.96 – 4.03
BSR: 0
Considering it’ll be near freezing, wet and windy, you’re probably going pitching or nothing here. It’s not a great matchup for Eovaldi though and I can’t tell you why the Rangers still aren’t hitting (60 wRC+ L7 days).
Twins @ Royals
The overall line doesn’t look terrible, mostly because he was facing the White Sox, but Simeon Woods-Richardson was down 1.5 mph (91.6), generating just a pair of ground balls and 54.5 HardHit%. He generated a 4.90 Bot ERA and 93 Stuff+ for the performance and took 80 pitches to get through four innings. Batters from either side of the plate are between a .301 and .311 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year.
Opp wRC+: 99
DEF: 2/-1
B30: 3.87 – 3.81
BSR: 7
Michael Lorenzen struck out seven of the 24 Brewers he faced (12 whiffs, 97 pitches) with half his contact on the ground, while his velocity was up half a mph from last season. Lorenzen threw seven pitches last year and none were graded above average, while his 3.38 ERA since last season is still more than a run below all of his estimators. Do note though, he has a massive reverse split with RHBs above a .350 wOBA and xwOBA since last year, but LHBs below .300.
Opp wRC+: 107
DEF: 25/23
B30: 4.12 – 4.09
BSR: -2
Not exactly warm and it may be windy, but this may still be one of the better offensive environments on the slate. I’m looking to stack RHBs against Lorenzen and anyone against SWR, who has very little value against a contact prone lineup.
Orioles @ Diamondbacks
Zach Eflin still isn’t walking anybody (2.2% through two starts), but has struck out just seven of the 45 batters he’s faced with a 56.8 HardHit%. He was down a mph last time out against the Red Sox. Pitch model grading is still strong however. He’s just not going to walk you and Eflin usually doesn’t give up that much hard contact, even if he doesn’t miss a lot of bats. He does have a reverse split though (RHBs .318 wOBA, .314 xwOBA since last year).
Opp wRC+: 113
DEF: -1/-4
B30: 3.80 – 3.87
BSR: 9
Despite not gaining back any of the velocity he had lost in his first start, Zac Gallen proceeded to strike out 13 of the 24 Yankees he faced after struggling against the Cubs first time out. He threw 101 pitches, 24 of them whiffs. Gallen’s secondaries were really sharp and when he commands them well, the fastball velocity won’t matter as much. It’s just that we don’t know when he’s going to do that and he must to be efficient if his velocity remains down.
Opp wRC+: 115
DEF: 27/8
B30: 3.92 – 3.90
BSR: 1
At least we don’t have to worry about weather here and the neutral run environment roof open or closed will probably be the top run environment on the board on Monday night (maybe Sacramento?). Eflin is a daily fantasy black hole. He doesn’t have a lot of upside and this is still a tough spot without Marte, but you don’t really want to go nuts against him. This is a tough spot for Gallen here and I’m not sure what you’re going to get, but he isn’t that expensive on DK ($8.3K).
Astros @ Mariners
Hayden Wesneski went fastball heavy in his first start against the Giants (54.5%). He’s never thrown more than 36.5% fastballs in any season. It wasn’t particularly elevated, but did earn a 26.9 Whiff%. However, PB gave it just a 41 grade and Stuff+ was even worse (78). They did like all the secondaries, but none were thrown more than 15.9% of the time. Wesneski has a reverse split with RHBs owning a .305 wOBA, but .335 xwOBA since last year.
Opp wRC+: 107
DEF: 4/-2
B30: 3.98 – 4.11
BSR: -2
Logan Gilbert lasted only five innings, allowing three runs to Detroit in a home start last time out, but also struck out 10 on 22 swings and misses. He’s struck out 18 of 44 batters so far and while Houston will be his toughest matchup to date, it’s not the same offense without Bregman and Tucker (and others they’ve lost along the years). The Astros also strike out around league average now too. Expect Houston to only run out a single LHB or two against Gilbert, who has held RHBs to a .231 wOBA and .265 xwOBA since last season.
Opp wRC+: 110
DEF: -13/3
B30: 3.82 – 3.95
BSR: -2
Yeah, absolutely Gilbert here, especially on FD, where he’s not even the most expensive pitcher and if Houston’s past reputation is going to keep his ownership down at a high price, then even more Gilbert. And, of course, you always have to look at the opposition pitcher against the Mariners in Seattle, if only for the strikeouts and Wesneski is cheap. Keep in mind that dependent upon weather, T-Moblie may not be the most negative environment on play Monday.
Reds @ Giants
Hunter Greene followed up a strong first start by striking out eight Rangers on 22 whiffs, averaging an even 100 mph on his fastball, which he hasn’t done in a game since his rookie season (2022). His slider has a 59.3 Whiff% through two starts. With batters from either side of the plate no higher than a .270 wOBA or xwOBA against him since last year, does he really need to find a third pitch? The fastball grade is up five PB points and 20 Stuff+ points since last year.
Opp wRC+: 93
DEF: -16/8
B30: 4.54 – 4.48
BSR: 8
Logan Webb has been effective, despite only throwing his changeup, his bread and butter pitch, only 12.9% through two starts. Understandable against the Astros, but less so in Cincinnati on Opening Day. Webb does allow hard contact at a high rate (48.4% so far), so the park and ground ball rate (54.8% this year) are necessary, though his 17.9 K-BB% through two starts is up from last year.
Opp wRC+: 89
DEF: -4/20
B30: 3.80 – 3.84
BSR: 6
Right now, I only have Gilbert and potentially Senga (depending on variables) ahead of Greene without having gone into King yet, but he costs just $7.9K on DraftKings, where he may be the top value on the board. I’m find going with whoever is projected for the lowest ownership among the three on FanDuel.
Padres @ Athletics
Like last season, Michael King was roughed up in his first start outing. Unlike last season, when it took him until around late May to finally put it together, King rebounded to strike out 11 of the 19 Guardians he faced, generating 18 swings and misses on 88 pitches. His fastball had a 36 Whiff% in this one. He doesn’t allow a lot of hard contact and King has a K-BB approaching 20% since last season. He’s a stud, plain and simple and he’s going to get paid by somebody this winter.
Opp wRC+: 99
DEF: 0/3
B30: 4.03 – 4.19
BSR: -5
Luis Severino has walked seven of 53 Cubs and Mariners so far with 12 strikeouts and a 9.2 SwStr%. Those who saw him exceed a 20 K-BB% over his last 10 starts of 2024 with increased sweeper usage may have been expecting more, but the pitch has just a 25.9 Whiff% through two starts (38.9% all of last season). He’s still using it as an out pitch against LHBs two, throwing his fastball the same amount, but his cutter only half as much to them. And batters from that side are within four points of a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against him since the start of last year. The fastball has graded extremely poorly through two starts (both PB & ST+)
Opp wRC+: 116
DEF: -41/-14
B30: 4.14 – 4.23
BSR: 3
The early weather report for Sutter Health is around 70 degrees without much wind tomorrow. With the same dimensions as Oakland, I don’t expect the park to play too strongly on Monday, perhaps close to neutral, which still makes it likely the most or second most positive run environment on the board. You weren’t jumping on Severino against the most contact prone lineup in the majors anyway. The Athletics projected lineup is either feast or famine for strikeouts, which actually leads to a lower rate than they had last year with Wilson, Andujar and Urshela all very contact prone. I’m leaning towards slotting King slightly below the three mentioned above here, but he’s one of the few pitchers costing less on FD than DK.
Despite lowering my threshold a week and a half in, I still can’t find much value anywhere. I usually look for more than five percent difference between my line and the market early on, but I can’t find anything about three and a half today and even that’s on a game where we have just one game of data from Dustin May in nearly two years.
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented/projected lineup(Roster Resource) Fielding Run Value
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
BSR: Projected Lineup Base Running Runs
Add comment
Comments