Under a bit of a time crunch on Monday night with 15 games to pour through. Not all are going to be in depth and only got around halfway through on the written work though the majority of the work is done on most games. The blanks will be filled in early Tuesday.
I may have to lower my value thresholds earlier than normal. I'll usually give it more leeway early in the season, while we're still getting to know and relearn players who may have changed, but I've been very closely aligned to the market on just about everything so far this season. It's not a lot of fun spending all this time pouring through games and coming up empty.
We’re still using 2024 stats. Legend at bottom of page.
If you find the information on this site helpful, the tip jar is open at mtrollo86@gmail.com on Paypal,
Yankees @ Tigers
Carlos Carrasco has not been as bad as his results so far and has a competent 12.7 K-BB% with 8.1% Barrels/BBE, Statcast brings his .363 wOBA against RHBs down to .314 since last year.
Opp wRC+: 97
DEF: 4/21
B30: 4.00 – 4.07 (FG proj. ERA – FIP)
BSR: 2
Tarik Skubal hasn’t been at his best yet, but did face the Dodgers first time out and struck out eight Mariners last time. Pitch modeling and velocity are fine. He should get there.
Opp wRC+: 107
DEF: 14/15
B30: 3.91 – 3.96
BSR: 1
Surprised to see how large a favorite Tigers are here. All three games in this series moved to afternoon due to poor weather.
White Sox @ Guardians
Both pitch modeling systems liked Shane Smith’s fastball. PitchersList believes he faded at around 60 pitches. Projections average around four and a half runs per nine.
Opp wRC+: 95
DEF: -34/-31
B30: 4.52 – 4.61
BSR: 5
Ben Lively’s 12.5 K-BB% through two starts is fine for the back of the rotation. A ground ball rate below 30% though? His 3.99 ERA matches a 4.00 ERA since last year with all other estimators more than half a run higher. I don’t supposed he’ll suppress barrels as well again (6.1% last year) without generating ground balls or suppressing hard contact overall.
Opp wRC+: 75
DEF: 7/19
B30: 3.84 – 3.93
BSR: -2
Cardinals @ Pirates
The first bit of good news here is that Sonny Gray’s velocity snapped back to 92.4 mph in his second start, more than a mph more than his first start and exactly his average velocity last season. His Bot ERA dropped 0.7 points between starts. He also may be a bit undervalued here because he went out for the seventh last time out and gave up a grand slam. He dominated the Angels through the first six innings (nine strikeouts, no walks). Gray has some contact problems, specifically against LHBs (.328 wOBA, .310 xwOBA since last year), but they’re actually three for 17 against him with eight strikeouts so far this season and it’s not like the Pirates can really take advantage of this if it is still even a flaw. They had an 83 wRC+ against RHP last year, didn’t really improve and have a 60 wRC+ over the last seven days overall.
Opp wRC+: 83
DEF: 15/-2
B30: 3.93 – 4.06
BSR: 2
It seems Statcast has trouble categorizing Paul Skenes’s pitches. Here’s a classification: unhittable. A 25 K-BB% against Miami and Tampa Bay, but the Cardinals might be a little bit tougher (101 wRC+ v RHP last year, 136 wRC+ L7 days). Batters from either side of the plate are below a .250 wOBA and xwOBA against Skenes in his career.
Opp wRC+: 101
DEF: -14/-24
B30: 4.16 – 4.16
BSR: 3
The Pirates are going to have to score to win this game and Skenes is not pitching a complete game. I’ll take the better offense, defense and bullpen as a dog with a pitcher on the mound who could certainly match zeroes with Skenes. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for more.
Dodgers @ Nationals
Justin Wrobleski’s 5.70 ERA through 36.1 major league innings last year appeared to be very befitting the underlying performance.
Opp wRC+: 85
DEF: -3/-19
B30: 3.92 – 3.97
BSR: 2
The Nationals have yet to post a pitcher.
Opp wRC+: 117
DEF: -18/-2
B30: 4.35 – 4.43
BSR: 2
Check back tomorrow. The Nationals could be interesting as a large dog here. I don't expect a ton of action on that side and am comfortable waiting to see their plans.
Blue Jays @ Red Sox
Hey! Look! I did this one already yesterday…
Easton Lucas’s first major league start saw him allow just one hit, walking two of the 18 batters he faced with three strikeouts (11 whiffs, 74 pitches). Only two batted balls reached a 95 mph EV (15.4%). He’s now a 28 year-old with 23.1 major league innings to his name and very little ink.
Opp wRC+: 101
DEF: 24/25
B30: 4.00 – 4.12
BSR: 8
Not great in Texas, Garrett Crochet followed up with domination in Baltimore. The velocity remains down a mph, as do the fastball pitch modeling grades (specifically in the second start, ironically enough). The cutter remains elite. He threw 10.8% changeups against the Orioles after 1.1% in Texas, while still using the downgraded fastball 50% of the time.
Opp wRC+: 88
DEF: -10/-5
B30: 4.05 – 3.97
BSR: -9
Pair LHPs puts the Red Sox in their worse split, but still massive favorites with Crochet on the mound against rotational depth.
Angels @ Rays
The fastball is down to 86.8 mph. PitchingBot still likes the sinker (56) and change (59). Stuff+ does not likes the change (119), but not the sinker (96). He pitched well this spring and in his first start in St Louis. Maybe he can get a young lineup to fall all over themselves, but I’m only even really covering this because it’s on the main DFS slate and LHBs exceed a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against Hendricks since last year.
Opp wRC+: 92
DEF: -25/-17
B30: 4.24 – 4.27
BSR: -2
Velocity jump 1.5 mph for Shane Baz in his first start. He struck out 10 Pirates on 13 whiffs without a walk. Seven of 13 batted balls were hard hit, but none barreled. Stuff+ put 124 and 132 grades on the heater and curve, where PitchingBot had just about everything a bit above average. Maybe this is what we can look forward to if he’s healthy again?
Opp wRC+: 89
DEF: 7/1
B30: 3.98 – 4.04
BSR: -10
I’m not touching Hendricks at a potentially more hitter friendly Yankee Stadium. Even if he pitches well, the upside is generally limited. I will have some Brandon Lowe and Jonathan Aranda. Maybe other assorted LHBs. I don’t at all mind taking shots with Baz. He’s just expensive enough to keep ownership down in what’s perceived as a tough park.
Marlins @ Mets
The numbers aren’t bad through two starts, but Connor Gillispie doesn’t have a single above average pitch via pitch modeling so far and because this game has been moved off the daily fantasy slate, I don’t have to spend much time figuring him out.
Opp wRC+: 105
DEF: -28/0
B30: 4.36 – 4.38
BSR: -5
Clay Holmes pitched better in his second game against an inferior opponent (these Marlins), but still had trouble commanding his pitches. It wasn’t even the same pitches he had trouble commanding in his first start. Thus, he’s fallen a single out clear of five innings in both starts. This may end up being a theme. Stay tuned.
Opp wRC+: 91
DEF: 5/14
B30: 3.85 – 3.93
BSR: 3
As mentioned, this game has been moved up three hours due to weather conditions. Gillispie stifled the Mets last time out, but perhaps more familiar with him now, they’ll have more success. Although, they will still have to deal with pitcher friendly weather in a pitcher friendly park.
Phillies @ Braves
This is easy. Zack Wheeler has struck out 18 of 44 batters with a 16.8 SwStr% through two starts. He’s still 40% fastball and no more than 15% any other pitch. LHBs are seeing fastballs, curveballs, splitters and cutters with fewer sinkers than they did last year, when they had a .311 wOBA against him. So far, so good (.190), but it’s only been the Rockies and Nationals.
Opp wRC+: 96
DEF: 9/-2
B30: 4.09 – 4.13
BSR: -5
While Chris Sale has a 25.6 K-BB% through two starts, a .333 BABIP and 60.3 LOB% have scarred the surface results. The velocity was down half a mph in his first start (relative to last year), but then a further full mph in his second start. As a result, his fastball grades are down (46 PB, 88 ST+), though the slider remains elite (59, 123) with the same grades as last season. Sale has faced the Dodgers and Padres on the road, so I’m less concerned with the results, but slightly concerned with the velocity as it could preclude another injury. With LHBs below a .230 wOBA and xwOBA against Sale since last year, he could benefit from facing several of them against the Phillies.
Opp wRC+: 118
DEF: -3/-9
B30: 3.94 – 3.90
BSR: 0
First of all, mid-50s is cold for Atlanta, but a double digit wind out to center does soften that somewhat, but also creates a headwind situation (more movement on pitches with decreased velocity potential). Wheeler is the my top arm on the slate and the most expensive. I’m a bit on the fence with Sale here. I can take or leave him on this slate without strong opinion. I’d avoid bats altogether here, but could understand if you want to sneak in an ATL LHB or two.
Rangers @ Cubs
Patrick Corbin posted yet another terrible 5.62 ERA with a 5.53 ERA to match (46.7 HardHit%). However, he also posted a not too far below average 4.41 SIERA, FIP and dERA, while also posting a 4.14 xFIP and Bot ERA. Kind of neat how that worked out, but the point is, the development of a cutter (62 PB grade, 101 Stuff+) may have saved his career. An 11.1 K-BB% isn’t terrible. That said, RHBs still whacked him for a wOBA and xwOBA above .350 last year. Corbin has worked up to six innings in the minors, so we don’t have any workload concerns. Projections are around four and a half.
Opp wRC+: 99
DEF: 25/7
B30: 4.12 – 4.08
BSR: 2
A completely different pair of starts for Jameson Taillon, first against the Diamondbacks (bad) then the A’s (good). Taillon literally swept the A’s off their feet, swinging and missing five of the 14 times he threw the pitch. Only three of 15 batted balls were hard hit and not on the ground. The velocity is up over half a mph from last season, as are most of his pitch grades, bordering elite territory. LHBs still have a .314 wOBA and .322 xwOBA against him since last season and the sweeper isn’t going to correct that. That’s going to be the cutter, curve and heater with only the latter grading above average through two starts.
Opp wRC+: 95
DEF: 15/39
B30: 3.96 – 4.03
BSR: -1
While Taillon’s issues with LHBs may persist, we have another near freezing night at Wrigley with the wind blowing in around 10 mph from near the right field pole. I’m still not rostering Corbin, but it is the one thing that can convince me not to attack him so strongly. I’m fine with Taillon on DraftKings for $6.2K, where I see him as one of the better values. Weather has me generally refraining from bats here overall.
Twins @ Royals
Pablo Lopez looked much better in his second start than in his first, caveat being that it was against the White Sox. Still, he’s struck out just eight of 48 batters with a 9.7 SwStr% (just nine whiffs vs White Sox). A far cry from the 20+ K-BB% each of the last two seasons. Modeling grades on his top three pitches are up though, so that’s a positive. Lopez has struggled with LHBs since last season (.324 wOBA, .317 xwOBA).
Opp wRC+: 99
DEF: 2/3
B30: 3.83 – 3.77
BSR: 4
Cole Ragans struck out 10 of 22 Brewers, generating 20 whiffs last time out. The fastball has been doing the main work (28.6 Whiff%) with PitchingBot grades slightly down through two starts. Stuff+ likes the changeup more this year (135). Since the start of last season, Ragans doesn’t have an estimator reaching three and a half, holding RHBs below a .275 wOBA and xwOBA, while we haven’t seen teams stack LHBs (.319, .300) against him yet and I don’t think the Twins will start here.
Opp wRC+: 107
DEF: 25/21
B30: 4.11 – 4.08
BSR: -4
We’re still looking at cooler temperatures here and I think Ragans could dominate this one. Lopez should be fine, but the Royals aren’t an ideal opponent for daily fantasy points because they make contact. There are only two projected Minnesota batters (Roster Resource LU v LHP) below a 21 K% vs LHP since last season.
Brewers @ Rockies
Freddy Peralta has posted a 32.6 K-BB% against the Yankees and Royals, which is quite impressive. His velocity has been up about a mph in both starts, allowing him to dominate with the heater (62 PB, 130 ST+) on 55% of his pitches, saving curves and changeups to put batters away. The latter is the only one of his three pitches not grading above average. The 18 inches of iVB on his fastball is nearly two full inches above last year and the curveball is the only pitch he’s thrown more than 20 times with a whiff rate below 25%. This may be the best version of Peralta possible.
Opp wRC+: 84
DEF: 23/23
B30: 3.96 – 4.06
BSR: 2
With increased velocity and a brand new cutter, Kyle Freeland has been solid in starts in Tampa Bay and Philadelphia. Pitch modeling systems disagree on the effectiveness of the pitch (55 PB, 93 ST+), but a 3.51 Bot ERA and 101 Stuff+ mark overall are easily the best of Freeland’s career so far and individual pitch metrics should solidify pretty quickly. The question is whether or not they try to turn the 16.8 SwStr% so far on the road into ground balls at home. I hope not. Batters from either side still exceed a .330 wOBA and xwOBA against Freeland since last year.
Opp wRC+: 99
DEF: 4/24
B30: 4.85 – 4.69
BSR: 6
The weather is slightly cool, but mid-60s will still play this park above average. I’m just not sure the two pitchers here are worth attacking. I’d certainly have at least some Milwaukee exposure in multi-entry, but can certainly see going underweight on them. On the other hand, not only am I not afraid to roster Peralta here, but I have him as the second best overall arm on the board and maybe the best value. I don’t mind Freeland exposure at all for $5K either. Yup, I’m endorsing pitching at Coors tonight.
Orioles @ Diamondbacks
While posting an impressive 24.4 K-BB% through two starts (though a pair of vastly different ones against the Jays and Sawx), Charlie Morton has also allowed a 72% hard hit rate and four barrels (16%). The good news is both pitch modeling systems still love the curveball (58, 125). The bad news is the fastball he throws 40% of the time (25, 51). Batters from either side now exceed a .320 wOBA and xwOBA against Morton since last year.
Opp wRC+: 113
DEF: -1/-4
B30: 3.79 – 3.85
BSR: 9
While Merrill Kelly survived walking four Cubs with a single strikeout, allowing just a run in 5.1 innings, the Yankees absolutely smashed him for nine runs with three walks and SIX barrels (33.3%). He’s now down almost a full mph from when he was last really healthy in 2023 with the curveball (16.4%) his only above average pitch by grading. This is a problem, considering he’s thrown five more than 10% of the time. While this outing skews things, since he only had 12 last year, batters from either side now exceed a .310 wOBA and xwOBA against Kelly since last year and LHBs are above .340.
Opp wRC+: 115
DEF: 27/8
B30: 3.92 – 3.9
BSR: 1
The roof is confirmed open here tonight and that actually is a very slight negative adjustment to the run and power environment in Arizona on average. It’s not even worth worrying about. Despite a pair of cheap pitchers (and I have more confidence in Kelly finding it again than Morton because, well, age), I’m all about the bats here. Both of these pitchers are being smoked on contact. Kelly possible because of command, while Morton probably needs to stop throwing his fastball so much.
Astros @ Mariners
I’m a little concerned that the Astros still haven’t officially listed Framber Valdez here with the reasoning given that there’s a virus going around the clubhouse. While he may have been more fortunate than effective in his Opening Day start against the Mets, he struck out nine Giants last time out, but with four walks, two home runs and five runs (60% hard hit rate). The curveball (37.1%) is still a monster by pitch grading standards, while the sinker has been average. I’m not concerned yet. He started off slow last year too. I am slightly concerned with the illness factor for this particular start.
Opp wRC+: 96
DEF: 4/-2
B30: 3.97 – 4.1
BSR: -4
Luis Castillo at home, against RHBs, which is essentially the entire Houston lineup minus Alvarez, is still fine. He’s pitched well in home starts against the Tigers and A’s, while RHBs overall have a .250 wOBA and .272 xwOBA against him since last year, .198 wOBA at home this year, .208 at home last year. That all said, he is down a further mph from last season, two from the year before and there will be starts on the road where I’m going to stack LHBs against him. For now, almost all of his pitch grades are up and well above average. That could be a park effect.
Opp wRC+: 110
DEF: -13/5
B30: 3.82 – 3.94
BSR: -2
Welcome to T-Moblie, your one stop shop for all of your daily fantasy pitching needs…except when it’s not and tonight might be that night. Framber is expensive and I don’t know if he’s pitching. I don’t know if he’s healthy. Castillo may be too expensive in a still favorable matchup, but I’m not sure he can rack up enough Ks. I’m still not really attacking them either, though I’m certainly fine with Alvarez.
Reds @ Giants
With a 14.8 career HR/FB, it’s not a shock that Nick Lodolo has decided to throw more sinkers this year at the expense of his normal fastball. It’s resulted in a career high 53.7 GB% and ground balls can’t fly out of Cincinnati. However, it’s also generated an 8.3 SwStr% and 10.4 K%. At least he hasn’t walked a batter yet. Without that concern here, in one of the most pitcher friendly parks in the league, will he feature more fastballs? Maybe more curveballs, which is the bigger whiff pitch? RHBs have a .233 wOBA against him through two starts, they had a .390 wOBA against him at home last year with eight of the 13 home runs he allowed. They had a .243 wOBA against him on the road last season.
Opp wRC+: 107
DEF: -16/3
B30: 4.55 – 4.49
BSR: 6
Landon Roupp lasted just four innings, three runs with four walks against the Astros in his first start of the season. He also struck out eight of 20 batters with a 15.7 SwStr%. There is some hype here, but it’s really built around one above average pitch (curveball 59 PB, 128 ST+). All other pitches grade well below average, as they did last year as well. Now, let me give you the reason all those other pitches are below average. Command. On pure stuff alone, they all grade out fine. He just can’t consistently put them where he wants them, which means he can improve. One fantastic pitch and this park?
Opp wRC+: 89
DEF: -4/18
B30: 3.81 – 3.84
BSR: 7
Just below 60 with an inconsequential wind is not too far from the norm in San Francisco. I don’t mind Roupp in a fantastic spot at home, but $7.3K on both sites is probably a bit more expensive than I’d like for a pitcher who can blow up too. I’m not sure what to do with Lodolo here. He’s too expensive (> $8K) to just throw in there and hope he changes his pitch mix in a better environment. I do know I’m not very intrigued with bats here, but if you’re going to side with a Roupp blowup, it’s a stack because of the walks.
Padres @ Athletics
Dylan Cease has struck out seven Braves and Guardians each in his first two starts, though did struggle and get knocked out in the fifth in the former outing. The strong performance against Cleveland is a bit more surprising considering he doesn’t have a real put away pitch against LHBs and the Guardians don’t strike out much. His slider was just so dominant (75 PB, 156 ST+) that nobody could touch it and he’s fine featuring it against LHBs instead of a mediocre changeup. The fastball, while graded below average against the Guardians, is featuring nearly 20 inches of iVB as well. This is a more interesting spot against a lineup that only features a few LHBs, but they are dangerous LHBs.
Opp wRC+: 99
DEF: 0/10
B30: 4.00 – 4.17
BSR: -5
After dominating Seattle first time out, Jeffrey Springs didn’t have it at home against the Cubs, a much tougher offense. It was the four walks. He only allowed a single hard hit ball, a barrel. The bread and butter changeup still graded extremely well. It appears fastball command was at fault.
Opp wRC+: 96
DEF: -41/-14
B30: 4.11 – 4.22
BSR: 3
A bit below 70 with similar dimensions to Oakland, maybe this park plays slightly pitcher friendly tonight? That’s a guess. Either way, the Padres aren’t a team you can utilize pitches against because they return such low upside in their strikeout rates. This should be a strong spot for Cease, although he’s very expensive and I wouldn’t be shocked if a lefty or two touched him up. I think I’d prefer Wheeler (a more consistent pitcher with a higher floor) at the same price or Peralta at a lower one.
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented/projected lineup(Roster Resource) Fielding Run Value
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
BSR: Projected Lineup Base Running Runs
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