Wednesday’s slate is full with 15 games, but 9 of them during the afternoon. Today’s article will only be covering games of interest or potential interest with daily fantasy notes for the late games.
Stats are through last season with a Legend below.
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Cardinals @ Pirates
With all due respect to Erick Fedde and Mitch Keller, I did all the work, but just don't see anything particularly interesting in this matchup.
Marlins @ Mets
About a half mph velocity drop across the board from Max Meyer’s first start to his second. He’s struck out 15 of 52 Pirates and Braves (13 SwStr%) with just three walks. Stuff+ really liked the slider first game (122) and changeup second time out (122).
Opp wRC+: 105
DEF: -28/0
B30: 4.35 – 4.37 (FG proj. ERA - FIP)
BSR: -5
A few more curveballs in his second start, but facing a pair of predominantly right-handed offenses (Astros & Blue Jays), Tylor Megill has stuck with the fastball, sinker, slider combo for the most part. His velocity was down in his second start, but the iVB was retained. Perhaps there was a headwind at Citi against the Jays. Megill’s command faltered in the sixth, so the final line three walks and four strikeouts (nine whiffs, 82 pitches, 21 batters faced). If this is going to be his breakout finally, it’s probably going to remain bumpy.
Opp wRC+: 91
DEF: 5/10
B30: 3.84 – 3.92
BSR: 3
I have some interest in both these pitchers, believing neither has found their peak yet. I also may have some interest in the Marlins if they reach +200. Stay tuned (Rocky Jade on Action Network).
Update: The price has dropped. A bit surprising.
Yankees @ Tigers
The good news is that Max Fried bounced back immediately after his perennially poor first start of the season. Last season it took him a while to get grounded. Rumor that the Yankees are working on single seam fastballs with some of their pitchers.
Opp wRC+: 88
DEF: 4/21
B30: 3.97 – 4.06
BSR: 1
Jack Flaherty pitched well first time out in Los Angeles, against the team he won a championship in his first start, sitting 93.6 mph. He was down to 92 mph in his second start, but also pitched well because it was against the White Sox. Both pitch modeling systems really liked his slider in the latter start much more too.
Opp wRC+: 120
DEF: 14/1
B30: 3.90 – 3.96
BSR: 2
Rangers @ Cubs
While Tyler Mahle couldn’t have been worse than his first start, it was surprising how much better he was in his second in five shutout innings, allowing a hit and two walks with 13 whiffs against the Rays. This, despite his velocity being down nearly a mph. Yet, just about all of his pitch grades spiked because he commanded them better. In five starts since returning from Tommy John last season, RHBs are 100 points better than LHBs against him (wOBA & xwOBA).
Opp wRC+: 102
DEF: 25/-2
B30: 4.10 – 4.08
BSR: 3
While Shota Imanaga has only struck out 10 of 68 batters, he’s faced the Dodgers, Diamondbacks and Padres, posting consecutive seven inning one run outings in the last two, while holding a 13.5 SwStr%.
Opp wRC+: 97
DEF: 15/42
B30: 3.96 – 4.03
BSR: 0
As an extreme fly ball pitcher, the early season weather should remain a positive to Shota’s game. I’ve jumped on an early under here (8.5) because I had this one nearly a run under with neutral weather and I can’t imagine there’ll be too much change to the forecast. I only worry about rain.
Padres @ Athletics
Nope
Orioles @ Diamondbacks
Dean Kremer is just a very volatile pitcher I don’t want to deal with if I can help it, especially when I can’t stack against him.
Opp wRC+: 113
DEF: -1/-4
B30: 3.78 – 3.85
BSR: 9
While Brandon Pfaadt is still allowing a wOBA and xwOBA within three points of .350 to LHBs since last year, he’s throwing more curveballs and changeups to them with positive results and pitch grades. This development could turn him into an All-Star. However, he's also allowed six barrels through two starts and four home runs to LHBs.
Opp wRC+: 115
DEF: 27/8
B30: 3.91 – 3.90
BSR: 1
I want to see Brandon Pfaadt start consistently battling, if not shutting down, LHBs before I jump on this against a balanced lineup or worse.
Reds @ Giants
Two more struggling pitchers I won't take the time to deal with today, except to note that RHBs now have a .367 wOBA and .330 xwOBA against Justin Verlander since last year. Keep in mind for his road starts.
Dodgers @ Nationals
Last week, the Dodgers were going to be to blow the '27 Yankees off the map with the greatest team and rotation ever. Suddenly, Freddie Freeman is on the IL, followed by Blake Snell and they hope not Tyler Glasnow, who hasn't looked good and the team that might not have room for Clayton Kershaw has shown us Jason Wrobleski and now Landon Knack less than two weeks into the season.
Astros @ Mariners
The other Luis Castillo, who lasted three innings with a 5.9 SwStr% across 18 batters in his first start.
White Sox @ Guardians
RHBs have a .321 wOBA, but .446 xwOBA against Sean Burke in his small career sample and a .405 wOBA and .391 xwOBA against Logan Allen since last year.
Blue Jays @ Red Sox
Kevin Gausman’s velocity is up. The whiff rate on the splitter has gone from 33.5% in a down year last season to 11.1% this season. He’s allowed five barrels and struck out four batters. While both pitch modeling systems LOVE the fastball (68, 135), they both grade the splitter below average (48, 95) for the first time. Of course, this demise has been well hidden by the .094 BABIP. The guy who generally runs BABIPs well above .300.
Opp wRC+: 105
DEF: 24/25
B30: 3.99 – 4.11
BSR: 8
Tanner Houck has allowed four barrels with a 65.5 HardHit%, striking out eight of 43 with five walks. The fastball velocity is down a bit and the sweeper still isn’t sweeping as much, even with a nice headwind in his last start. The splitter has gone from a well graded pitch to a pitiful one. It’s concerning.
Opp wRC+: 106
DEF: -10/22
B30: 4.07 – 3.99
BSR: -8
I’m worried about both of these pitchers, but more so Gausman and have a slight lean towards the home team. We’ll see where the line moves. It’s a very hitter friendly park, but we have to see what kind of weather we’re dealing with. Regardless, I’m off both of these pitchers for daily fantasy purposes. Even under better circumstances, the Blue Jays just don’t strike out.
Angels @ Rays
Yusei Kikuchi has been down a mph from last year in both starts, walking five Cardinals in his most recent outing. The result has been batters hitting the ball hard (five barrels) with just a 12.2 K-BB%. Stop me if you’ve heart this before, but it’s concerning.
Opp wRC+: 105
DEF: -25/-17
B30: 4.23 – 4.26
BSR: 0
After finally dominating the way we’ve always wanted to see Ryan Pepiot do so in his first start of the season against the Rockies, he went changeup heavy (35%) against the Pirates and struggled with his command. The good news is that all three main pitches now (fastball, slider, changeup) grade exceptionally well by both PitchingBot and Stuff+. And so we wait and hope again.
Opp wRC+: 89
DEF: 7/-16
B30: 3.97 – 4.04
BSR: -8
Beautiful baseball weather expected in Tampa Bay on Wednesday night, which is not great news for these pitchers, but considering the Angels don’t have many LHBs (RHBs .279 wOBA, .285 xwOBA) vs Pepiot since last year), Pepiot is certainly a guy I’m looking at for $7.9K on DK on a small slate. Kikuchi may be a pitcher I’m looking to attack, if anything.
Phillies @ Braves
Batters from either side of the plate have exceeded a .360 wOBA and xwOBA against Taijuan Walker since last year and RHBs are above .400. Of course, all the terrible things we could say about his awful 2024 season apply. All that said, he threw very few fastballs in his first start of the year and only walked one. He was out there chucking everything in his first start on his way to a 13.5 SwStr%. The bad news is that it was against the Rockies and it all graded poorly.
Opp wRC+: 96
DEF: 9/-2
B30: 4.09 – 4.13
BSR: -6
Grant Holmes acquitted himself well both out of the bullpen and in a starting role last season. He was spanked by the Dodgers in his first start though. While that’s not the end of the world and an awful matchup to make an analysis on, the pitch modeling was terrible. That said, this is still a guy sitting on estimators around three and a half with an 18.4 K-BB% since last year.
Opp wRC+: 104
DEF: -3/-3
B30: 3.93 – 3.90
BSR: 0
While daily fantasy players are certainly justified in attacking Walker, I’m a bit up in the air on Holmes here. I could go either way or just leave him alone. The positive is that he’s the cheapest arm on the board outside Coors and if you’re playing DraftKings and not taking Holmes, you’ll have to pick at least one guy from the next game.
Twins @ Royals
Reduced velocity in his Joe Ryan’s first start dropped even more in his second, as he’s down 1.5 mph on average against last year. Several have correctly pointed out that he was previously successful at this velocity prior to last year. That’s true, but last year was when he entered All-Star territory. The iVB on his fastball this year is below both years. He hasn’t walked anyone yet, striking out 11 of 42, so it’s not incredibly concerning, but be cautious.
Opp wRC+: 99
DEF: 2/-1
B30: 3.83 – 3.77
BSR: 4
Seth Lugo, who has a pitch for each finger only generated an above average pitch modeling grade on his curveball last year and the absolute same is true through two starts this year. In fact, he doesn’t have another pitch exceeding a 41 PB or 80 Stuff+ grade. He’s allowed just a single barrel, but a 51.5 HardHit% with a 4.7 K-BB% so far. Do I believe he’s toast? No. I didn’t believe he was as good as his surface numbers last year either. The truth is likely somewhere in between. His command has been a bit off.
Opp wRC+: 107
DEF: 25/21
B30: 4.10 – 4.08
BSR: -2
It’s generally not a great idea to roster daily fantasy pitchers against the Royals. The two main reasons are the sneaky high run environment and that the Royals don’t strike out much. The weather is supposed to be around 70 degrees on Wednesday, so we shouldn’t see too much of an effect. Still, I expect Joe Ryan to be a popular pitcher on a five game slate. He’s the most expensive (or second on FD) and I’m perfectly willing to fade him here. That means I’m going either Grant Holmes or Seth Lugo as my SP2 on DK or also paying up for Pepiot (the highest priced pitcher on FD). I think I’d rather go in that direction. Whether I’m going to roster batters against these pitchers depends on how things workout salary wise, but I’m not looking forward to the decision because this park enhances run scoring, while suppressing power at the same time, which means to gain offensive value, you need to roster multiple players generally.
Brewers @ Rockies
Tyler Alexander no hit the Reds through 5.2 innings, striking out six of 21 batters in his only start with a modest nine whiffs on 83 pitches. Mostly fastball, cutter with some sinkers and changes, none graded exceptionally well. RHBs have a .329 wOBA and .342 xwOBA against him since last year.
Opp wRC+: 78
DEF: 23/24
B30: 3.92 – 4.02
BSR: 4
Antonio Senzatela has walked just two of 41 batters, but also allowed 19 hits and stranded them all. He’s struck out three with a 7.6 SwStr%, while 61% of his batted balls have reached at least a 95 mph EV. Since returning from the IL last season (five starts in total), batters from both sides of the plate exceed a .400 wOBA and xwOBA against him.
Opp wRC+: 105
DEF: 4/19
B30: 4.85 – 4.69
BSR: 6
Considering the 60 degree temperatures and double digit wind in form left-center, I’ve waffled a bit on Tyler Alexander at $6K on DraftKings. It might work out for you on this slate, if necessary. If Coors is reduced to something like Fenway normally plays by weather, then Colorado’s 80ish wRC+ against LHP isn’t even average. Maybe the numbers don’t work out exactly like that, but it’s not a terrible spot. On the other hand, I don’t see how Senzatela can possibly keep this up. He’s getting smoked without repercussion. There are likely to be plenty of Milwaukee stacks out there though.
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented/projected lineup(Roster Resource) Fielding Run Value
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
BSR: Projected Lineup Base Running Runs
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