A short slate (six games, mostly during the day) generally means less readership, but it’s often when I do my best work because there’s more time to dig into each individual matchup. Something you read below may not help you today, but could pay dividends the next time one of these pitchers take the mound and I can’t go into as much depth.
We’re also going to start using real bullpen stats for the season with two weeks built up. Just as it says in the legend below, an average of estimators.
All remaining stats from last season. Legend at the bottom of the page.
If you find the information on this site helpful, the tip jar is open at mtrollo86@gmail.com on Paypal.
Angels @ Rays
Jose Soriano throwing seven shutout innings at the White Sox, striking out five with just two hits is impressive, but not eye opening. However, despite being barreled up three times by the Guardians next time out (two home runs, four hard hit batted balls altogether), the 17.8 SwStr% and nine strikeouts are even more stunning. The slider got seven whiffs on 10 swings to RHBs, the splitter (12) got three whiffs on five swings, all thrown to LHBs. After just barreling through the White Sox with sinkers (64.4%), is he going to go more secondary heavy to miss bats more often or was this just matchup contingent? Ground balls are great and they can’t be hit out of the park, but see what he does here because a Soriano with ground balls and strikeouts could be coveted fantasy pitcher.
Opp wRC+: 92
DEF: -25/-17
B30: 4.58
BSR: -2
Zach Littell also dominated a weak opponent in his first start (Colorado) before struggling against a stronger one last time out (Texas). However, unlike Soriano, Littell only subsidized his breakdown with three strikeouts. While the majority of the damage was done in a single inning, That said, he’s thrown 77 sliders this year (yes, he throws it 45.6% of the time and more than twice as much as any other pitch through two starts, just 34.8%, but still his most frequent pitch last year too) with a 6.5 SwStr% and 16.1 Whiff% (per swing) and all of those swings and misses on the pitch came in his first start. Stuff+ still likes the pitch (116 overall), where PB sees it as perfectly average (50). Littell’s strength is generally his great control (4.7 BB% since last year, 16.7 K-BB%). He has about a 20 point split and could benefit a bit from the lack of LHBs in the opposing lineup.
Opp wRC+: 89
DEF: 7/-19
B30: 2.89
BSR: -10
Google weather suggests temperatures in the upper 70s with a very light wind (less than 5 mph) during game time, which probably means this park plays slightly better than average for hitters. I wonder if Soriano will revert to being more sinker heavy against power threats, particularly from the left-hand side. In the early going, the Angels have been a bottom five pen, while the Rays have been top five.
White Sox @ Guardians
Our theme continues, as Jonathan Cannon pitched well against the Angels before faltering against the Tigers. He’s struck out just two more (eight) than he’s walked (six) of the 39 batters he’s faced with hard contact on 11 of 23 batted balls, but also 13 of them on the ground. His velo was down 1.5 mph in his second start, but as he throws five pitches nearly evenly, it may not mean much. Stuff+ gave his sinker a nine grade last time out. Yes, so low I had to spell it out and he threw it 20% of the time, but the fastball and slider are both grading above 150 through two starts. This is some craziness and I’ve seen Cannon occasionally pitch competently, but a single digit K-BB%, along with too much hard contact and an awful defense seems like a terrible combination to me. Batters from the left-hand side have a .348 wOBA and .340 xwOBA against him in his career, dangerous against the Guardians.
Opp wRC+: 95
DEF: -34/-20
B30: 4.21
BSR: 5
Gavin Williams has failed to exceed 75 pitches in either of his starts, holding him to just three innings against the Angels last time out. He’s struck out seven of 37 batters with four walks and just seven hard hit batted balls (26.9%), but five of those against the Angels (50%). The velocity has been up above 97 mph in both starts (96.6 last year), but he’s throwing it 62.4% of the time with a .371 xwOBA on it and modest 8.6 SwStr% (17.1 Whiff%). The sweeper (classified as standard slider last year) has been great (42.1 Whiff%, 119 Stuff+, but only 41 PB), which should help the .354 wOBA and xwOBA RHBs own against him since last year (though all of his hard contact this year plus a .411 wOBA have come against RHBs). The curve and fastball are weapons of choice against LHBs and while PB (45) and ST+ (123) disagree again on the former, it’s held LHBs to a .281 wOBA and .284 xwOBA, so it’s doing the job.
Opp wRC+: 75
DEF: 7/19
B30: 3.88
BSR: -1
Cold (low 40s) and wet forecast for Thursday afternoon in Cleveland. How wet is the question? This should be a spot for Williams to shine, while a problem spot for Cannon.
Twins @ Royals
Bailey Ober continued the now seemingly annual tradition of getting smoked in his first start of the season (eight runs, two home runs, three walks and strikeouts each in St Louis) before recovering, though his second start this year was merely okay. He allowed a run over four innings, striking out five of 17 Astros. His velocity is down a mph from last year in his second start and a half mph below that in his first. But it’s not really about the speed with Ober, it’s the “vert”, which increased in his second start (19 iVB) and is up nearly half an inch overall vs last year. The fastball is additionally where it should be pitch modeling wise, but the secondaries, particularly the changeup (21.4%) have been below average. That could be a big deal, considering Ober has a reverse split of about 20-30 points, where RHBs have been about league average against him. If he doesn’t excel against LHBs, he’s a league average pitcher.
Opp wRC+: 99
DEF: 2-1
B30: 3.43
BSR: 4
When you’re checking in on Michael Wacha, you’re looking at just one pitch. His changeup (32.2%, 79 PB, 135 ST+ last year) is just fine (29.4%, 68 PB, 161 ST+) and that’s why I’m not too worried about his fastball (41.7%, 46 PB, 66 ST+) being down more than a mph and looking awful too much. First of all, he’s never thrown it that much (23.8% last year). And when I say not too worried, I mean I don’t expect him to sustain the 3.30 ERA of the prior three years that have come with a 78.8 LOB%. The power suppressing park and great defense could help him stay ahead of his estimators though. Batters from either side of the plate have exactly a .302 wOBA against him (though RHBs a 30 point higher xwOBA, which you’d expect from a changeup heavy pitcher).
Opp wRC+: 107
DEF: 25/21
B30: 4.25
BSR: -2
Temperatures near 70 with a strong wind, directionally southeastward according to google, but I can’t tell what direction that is relation to the stadium. Let’s see if either of these changeup heavy pitchers gets their fastball back on Thursday. Maybe live bet the one who does (Rocky Jade on Action Network).
Brewers @ Rockies
Despite a 4.3 K-BB% this spring (46 BF), there has been some recent hype regarding Quinn Priester, who has struck out six of 19 batters at AAA. The Red Sox altered his pitch usage, shelved the changeup and then traded him for a decent prospect without having him pitch at the major league level (he did start one game last year), despite starting Sean Newcomb this year. Priester did post a 19.9 K-BB% over 72 AAA innings last season. Last year, 109 LHBs (PIT & BOS) had a .389 wOBA and .378 xwOBA against him, while RHBs were more than 100 points lower. So, yeah, that changeup wasn’t helping. However, he's projected for a league average ERA just above four.
Opp wRC+: 84
DEF: 23/24
B30: 4.08
BSR: 2
Ryan Feltner pitched slightly better in his road start (Rays) than his home one (A’s), but the theme throughout his career, like most Colorado pitchers, has been a three point drop in K-BB% at home with a near six point rise in ground ball rate. However, last year, Feltner experienced a seven point rise in ground ball rate without sacrificing any K-BB (12.9%). That’s still only about average, but you’ll take it at Coors with a near 50% ground ball rate. He actually threw more sinkers and changeups on the road and more sliders at home, though that may just be the result of the A’s being more right-handed. Yet, that should call for more sinkers (1.1% vs A’s). He did drop over a mph against the A’s, but it was snowing at Coors that day. Perhaps that’s why the pitch modeling was so unfavorable too (5.49 Bot ERA, 78 Pitching+ this year).
Opp wRC+: 105
DEF: 4/24
B30: 5.25
I guess we’ll find out what Quinn Priester learns here. Or will we? While people may brush away a bad start because it’s Coors, a terrible home offense only upgrades to around league average there. Wether is expected to be near neutral. The breakers may not break as much. Still, I’m currently showing Priester and the Brewers as my larges edge so far. That’s mostly relying on composite Fangraphs projections for Priester, along with a little bit of last year mixed in. It’s also partially because the Colorado pen has been even worse than advertised and they were advertised to be the worst.
Blue Jays @ Red Sox
Chris Bassitt’s fastball was down more than half a mph from last year in his first start and then more than another mph from that in his second. But he’s struck out 16 of 51 batters. First, the 11.1 SwStr% is not much above average. Second, he’s allowed four barrels with a 48.5 HardHit%. There’s some good news too though. Bassitt’s pitch modeling grades are WAY up. Where he only had a pitch or two above average last year (he throws a lot of different pitches), almost all of them are well above average right now. Small sample of course, but LHBs still have a .334 wOBA against him this year and are above .370 (wOBA & xwOBA) since last year. Maybe he can bounce back, but I want to see more success against LHBs.
Opp wRC+: 105
DEF: 24/25
B30: 3.53
BSR: 8
Walker Buehler was down exactly two mph from last year in his first start and was only up half a mph from that in his second. He’s been blasted for three home runs and four barrels to just 43 batters. The 9.8 SwStr% is mediocre, but it’s all sweeper (33.3 SwStr% with no other pitch above 8.3%). That’s fine for RHBs, but what about LHBs (.387 wOBA, .341 xwOBA since last year). In this year’s small sample, batters from both sides are above .420, so there’s that.
Opp wRC+: 106
DEF: -10/22
B30: 3.51
BSR: -8
Another cold day at Fenway (40s) with some wind, though I can’t tell which direction. Perhaps some pitcher friendly weather is what Walker Buehler needs again to get back on track, but I’m skeptical and also more in awe of last season’s wind aided Citi Field post-season performance. He’s certainly the one of the two less likely to have a bounce back season at this point, but I’m still not sure either one of them can get quality LHBs out. Both will run out around four of them, but the Boston ones are of a higher quality.
Phillies @ Braves
Jesus Luzardo has struck out 19 of his first 46 batters this season with four walks, three barrels (13%) and a 43.5 HardHit%. Keep up a 41.3 K% and the contact profile means less. His fastball is up over 1.5 mph, back where it was in 2023 before pushing through an injury filled 2024. One of those was against the Dodgers. He seems to have added a sweeper to his slider and both are generating a 50+ Whiff% and he’s throwing them to RHBs too. The changeup also has a 40% whiff rate. Now pitching modeling doesn’t differentiate between sliders and sweepers, but at 61 (PB) and 183 (ST+), I’ll take it that whatever he’s been throwing has been great. The fastball (54 PB, 78 ST+) has actually been his worst and only pitch with a below average grade from either system.
Opp wRC+: 114
DEF: 9/-2
B30: 3.77
BSR: -9
Spencer Schwellenbach only has a 28.4 K-BB% through two starts. having not allowed a barrel with a 60 GB% and only one third of his contact hard hit. His velocity is up a bit and five of his six pitch mix grade exceptionally on both systems with the cutter being the only one slightly below average. I have some Cy Young shares here at 40 to 1 and these are the types of guys who take the least words to describe. He was great last year and maybe even better this year.
Opp wRC+: 104
DEF: -3/1
B30: 3.96
BSR: 0
Neutral weather expected here and this is our NL Cy Young race if the season were only one month long. Once again, I’m only more than two percent removed from the line on any of these games and it’s the one mentioned above with the only pitcher who has yet to throw a major league pitch this season. And that’s the end of that.
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented/projected lineup(Roster Resource) Fielding Run Value (Statcast)
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
BSR: Projected Lineup Base Running Runs
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