Sometimes I’ll read what I’ve just published on my ipad right before falling asleep for the night and wonder how the hell I could put that jumbled mess of words together. When you have so many ideas floating around in your brain, combining doesn’t always come out as the smoothest word salad. Maybe I’ll be able to bring on an editor if I’m still doing this in a couple of years, but for now, you’ll just have to accept the rambling madness as it goes straight from brain to virtual paper.
Fifteen games for Friday, as is the norm, none during the day with 13 on the main daily fantasy slate. As mentioned on Thursday, we’re now using 2025 bullpen stats, as stated in the Legend below, but all other stats are still from 2024.
By next week, we should be fully immersed in 2025 statistics.
If you find the information on this site helpful, the tip jar is open mtrollo86@gmail.com on Paypal.
Royals @ Guardians
Kris Bubic has never averaged 92 mph in a season as a starting pitcher, but he’s done so in both starts this season. He’s completed six innings, striking out eight batters (Orioles, Brewers) in each. He’s shoving with 18.8 inches of vert on the heater, which is even a full inch above last year out of the bullpen. Every pitch he’s thrown more than six times has at least a 20% whiff rate with the changeup at 52.9%. All of his pitches are graded above average by both pitch modeling systems (3.24 Bot ERA, 122 Pitching+).
Opp wRC+: 114
DEF: 25/21
B30: 2.93
BSR: 4
Tanner Bibee’s Opening Day start against these Royals was quite marginal. He didn’t miss bats, but only generated hard contact on 25% of batted balls. He was then lit up by the Angels in LA with nine hard hit batted balls and four barrels, though he did so with a 16.9 SwStr%. His fastball, the only pitch he’s utilizing more than 15% of the time with a new cutter in play, is down about half a mph, but the pitch modeling have cratered on it (38 PB, 48 Pitching+). The vert (iVB) on Bibee’s fastball is down two inches to 13.8 and the cutter has been blasted for two home runs, having been thrown just 27 times. If you really want to get into the weeds on the new pitch, it received a grade of five in his first start, but 138 in the start where he allowed the two home runs. Anyway, LHBs have a .338 wOBA and .315 xwOBA against Bibee since last year, so if it’s not going to be the cutter (which he’s not throwing to LHBs), then he has to figure something out with a declining fastball and poor changeup. That’s not to suggest that the fastball is going to continue to decline though.
Opp wRC+: 99
DEF: 7/22
B30: 4.62
BSR: 4
Temperatures around 40 degrees in Cleveland on Friday evening. Pitcher friendly weather. I’m not buying Cleveland’s 114 wRC+ against LHP carrying over and Bubic has shown definable improvement. I have the Royals slightly favored here. Surprisingly, they’ve been the top five bullpen here where the Guardians have been a bottom five one with Clase struggling.
Pirates @ Reds
Bailey Falter has a 55.9 HardHit% through two starts with all non-FIP estimators above four and a half since last year. Batters from both side also have a wOBA and xwOBA of .320 or better since last season also.
Opp wRC+: 84
DEF: -14/-24
B30: 4.23
BSR: 5
Brady Singer has a 24.5 K-BB% through two starts, but the Brewers did smack him around a bit in his second start. Batters from the left-hand side exceed a. 360 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year.
Opp wRC+: 83
DEF: -16/-6
B30: 4.22
BSR: 2
Temperatures around 50 and I trust neither of these pitchers. If you do ever want to play Singer in any fashion, make sure it’s a predominantly right-handed lineup.
Blue Jays @ Orioles
Bowden Francis strikes out just enough batters (22.5% since last year) to be interesting in combination with a 5.9 BB% and 36.2 HardHit%.
Opp wRC+: 115
DEF: 24/25
B30: 3.35
BSR: 1
Tomo Sugano has thrown six different pitches between 13.6% and 19.8% of the time through his first two starts. The least frequently thrown of those pitches (curveball) is the one both pitch modeling systems agree they like the best.
Opp wRC+: 106
DEF: -1/-4
B30: 3.73
BSR: -8
Cool around 50 degrees here with a near double digit wind. In which direction? I don’t find either pitcher or any side of this matchup particularly exciting in colder weather.
Braves @ Rays
Bryce Elder had one above average pitch last year by both estimators (slider), while LHBs have a .419 wOBA and .397 xwOBA against him since last season.
Opp wRC+: 92
DEF: -3/-3
B30: 3.60
BSR: -2
Taj Bradley has struck out 14 of 44 batters with a 13.8 SwStr%, though he did struggle a bit in Texas last time out with both of his barrels leaving the yard. However, despite seven strikeouts in each of those two starts, his pitch grades were significantly lower with only a 111 Pitching+ on his splitter saving it from being a total wipeout. Bradley is a volatile pitcher and I don’t like the 10.2% Barrels/BBE last year, but he has struck out 27% of batters since last season, which will help him mitigate this park better than some others who allow too many balls in play. It’s still going to be a problem sometimes though.
Opp wRC+: 96
DEF: 7/-19
B30: 3.09
BSR: -6
It’s going to be around 80 degrees with some wind here. The ball could fly out of this park, which is certainly bad news for Elder and possibly Bradley too. I’m siding with the home side pitcher with more upside here (follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for more).
Giants @ Yankees
Robbie Ray has faced 44 batters, allowing seven hits and striking out just six with an 8.9 SwStr%, while walking just as many. He’s also allowed seven barrels (21.9%). Oh, I know this Robbie Ray. He’s thrown his slider 18% of the time this year, 27% career, no lower than 29.4% since 2018. Pitching Bot, which grades on a 20/80 scale gives the pitch a 21 overall mark, while Pitching+, where 100 is average, gives it a (-4). That’s a negative four. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a negative pitch grade before. Ray has faced only 29 LH batters since returning from Tommy John last year, but they have two home runs with a .450 wOBA and .463 xwOBA against him. The Yankees will generally leave three or four LHBs in there against southpaws.
Opp wRC+: 107
DEF: -4/20
B30: 3.45
BSR: 1
Marcus Stroman said he was a starting pitcher this spring and then went out and injured half the Yankee rotation to emphasize the point. Coming off a down year, he’s allowed seven runs over 8.2 innings with just six strikeouts (8.4 SwStr%). He doesn’t have an estimator below four and a half since last year with LHBs owning a .365 wOBA and .360 xwOBA against him over that span. If you’re looking for a positive, his pitch modeling grades have improved so far with both PB and Stuff+ loving the curveball (66, 173). In fact, Stroman has an overall 116 Pitching+ score and 3.53 Bot ERA through two starts.
Opp wRC+: 93
DEF: 4/21
B30: 2.90
BSR: 8
Cold wet and windy in the Bronx and those are the only conditions under which I’d consider backing either of these pitchers at this point and even then probably not in this spot.
Nationals @ Marlins
Mitchell Parker has struck out just seven of 50 batters with an 8.0 SwStr%. RHBs have a .313 wOBA, but .343 xwOBA against him since last year. The good news is that his pitch modeling has improved (4.23 Bot ERA, 106 Pitching+) and his fastball is from a 17.6 iVB to 18.5.
Opp wRC+: 75
DEF: -18/-10
B30: 4.85
BSR: 2
This is expected to be Edward Cabrera’s season debut. He struck out six of 18 batters over four innings in his last rehab outing and hasn’t walked any of the 29 batters he’s faced. That said, he’s coming off a 12 BB% and 45.7 HardHit% last season with LHBs above a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against him.
Opp wRC+: 95
DEF: -28/0
B30: 2.80
BSR: -2
At least this is a protected environment. Here we go with the Cabrera hype again? He is a cheap DFS arm, but note that he’s probably not going deep and the Nationals don’t strike out much. I have no opinion about utilizing Parker as an SP2 in a fine spot, but just don't love the upside.
Red Sox @ White Sox
Sean Newcomb has walked five of the 41 batters he’s faced, while striking out nine with an 11.4 SwStr%. He’s brought back a cutter he abandoned last year (55 PB, 91 P+). His fastball and sinker grades are up from last year and about average. The curveball (21.5%) grades very poorly (34, 20). Newcomb has faced 66 RHBs since last year with a .467 wOBA and .364 xwOBA.
Opp wRC+: 74
DEF: -10/22
B30: 3.77
BSR: 0
Davis Martin was up half a mph from last year in his first start and then down nearly two mph from that in his latest effort in Detroit. Perhaps it was weather related, but he has just a 5.6 SwStr% overall with five barrels and a 52.5 HardHit%. Batters from either side of the plate are between a .320 and .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year. PitchingBot likes the slider (57) much more than Pitching+ (61), but the rest of his pitches grade well in both systems, which really doesn’t coordinate with the results.
Opp wRC+: 105
DEF: -34/-6
B30: 4.40
BSR: 8
Cold, but perhaps not very windy. I’m fine if conditions have you siding with Newcomb here in an SP2 role, but I don’t think I can get to Martin.
Angels @ Astros
Jack Kocho…Jack Kochono…Jack Koch was a ground ball machine (57.5%) with a 7.1 SwStr% last year, chucking 72.4% sinkers. He’s cut that down to 45.5% through two starts this year, also cutting out his curveball (18.2% last year) in favor of more fastballs (29.4%) and a new slider (25.2%). The result has been a spike in his swinging strike rate to…9.1%, while the ground ball rate has plummeted to 37.5%. You get it because LHBs have a .332 wOBA and .365 xwOBA against him since last year. Though we know the Astros are almost entirely right-handed, so what will he do here? The new pitch mix grades marginally (4.23 Bot ERA, 92 Pitching+).
Opp wRC+: 110
DEF: -25/-17
B30: 4.24
BSR: -2
Who expected Ronel Blanco to sustain his .220 BABIP and 83.6 LOB% from last year? Good. Now that we’ve quickly gotten that out of the way, his 14.9 SwStr% is up from last year and he has only allowed a single barrel, but a 50 F-Strike% is killing him. He’s walked six of 34 batters and his pitch modeling (including command) has been terrible (5.09 Bot ERA, 83 Pitching+). The .286 wOBA LHBs have against him since last season, may start catching up to the .332 xwOBA. The good news for him today is the lack of LHBs in the LAA lineup.
Opp wRC+: 89
DEF: 4/-2
B30: 3.66
BSR: -10
While both pitchers likely gain something from the abundance of RHBs they’ll face here, I don’t see enough upside to roster either of them, especially when Blanco costs $8.6K. Sure, he could pop a 10 K, one hitter, throw him in one lineup, but I’d expect him to pitch poorly here just as often, if not more often than great. Remember that the protected environment likely makes this one of the most positive run environments on the board too, though Tampa Bay likely takes that cake on Friday.
Tigers @ Twins
Reese Olson is shutting RHBs down (< .270 wOBA and xwOBA), but has to figure out LHBs (.316, .325). In two starts this season, he struggled against the Dodgers, but wasn’t great against the White Sox either. While his sinker velocity was up a mph from last season in that first start, it was down a mph from last year in his second, but he’s allowed a hard hit rate above 50% in both starts. The fastball that he threw 9.6% of the time against the White Sox (four-seamer, not sinker) is the only pitch that’s been graded positively by both pitch modeling systems this year. His 12.7 SwStr% from last year is just 9.6% so far, though he’s still generating half his contact on the ground at least.
Opp wRC+: 107
DEF: 14/4
B30: 5.32
BSR: -2
David Festa makes his major league return after debuting with 64.1 innings and an unfortunate 4.90 ERA last year. This, despite a 19.5 K-BB% and 38.9 HardHit%. Festa’s estimators were much closer to three and a half than four and a half on average, so there are some high hopes for remaining, despite losing prospect eligibility last year. His pitch modeling was a bit better than average, though even with a fastball, slider, change arsenal, RHBs were his trouble spot (.332 wOBA, .335 xwOBA) and that can almost be entirely laid upon his slider (182 wRC+ against, despite a 53 PB grade and 107 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 97
DEF: 2/-1
B30: 3.94
BSR: 2
The Tigers are carrying a seven day rolling 141 wRC+ as Spencer Torkelson finally looks to be living up to some of the hype and joining Kerry Carpenter and Riley Greene in making the heart of this order a force to contend with. So, while I like Festa’s future, he’s not a slam dunk roster here (I don’t even see a price right now). It’s not going to reach 60 in Minnesota on Friday, but it’s not as cold and windy as some other spots. On the other side, I’m just not seeing the upside in Olson that I want to see.
Phillies @ Cardinals
Aaron Nola has allowed eight runs and four home runs on six barrels (16.7%) in his first two starts. Sure, one of those was against the Dodgers, but also the Nationals. He’s struck out 10 of 48 with an 11.2 SwStr%, which is about average. Since last year, Nola’s 3.72 ERA is within one-third of a run of all of his non-FIP estimators. A few more of his barrels flew out of the yard than expected because Philadelphia is a power friendly park. In that sense, this is certainly an upgrade on Friday, though the overall run environment isn’t too much different. Also, LHBs now have a .320 wOBA and .322 xwOBA against Nola since last year. This is a real problem. The good news is that his pitch modeling has been elite to start the season (2.37 Bot ERA, 147 Pitching+) even if the results have not been.
Opp wRC+: 101
DEF: 9/-2
B30: 3.95
BSR: 3
Andre Pallante has struck out nine of 41 batters with five walks and two home runs, but only one barrel that we know of (still no Statcast data on his first start against the Twins). A point of interest here is that Pallante has traded sinkers for sliders against RHBs with the result being almost doubling his SwStr so far from 8.3% last year to 14.7% this season. While the pitch has terrible modeling grades (25 PB, 3 P+), we’re missing the data for his first start and the pitch has been swung on and missed seven times over the 21 times he’s thrown it so far. With a 62.9 GB%, Pallante’s 3.79 ERA just about matches Nola’s and is also within one-third of all estimators since last year. However, batters from neither side of the plate reach a .320 wOBA or xwOBA against Pallante over that span.
Opp wRC+: 104
DEF: 15/-2
B30: 3.90
BSR: 0
While I full acknowledge that Nola has more upside in a daily fantasy sense (but still don’t love him for the price) and is likely to go deeper into the game, from market perspective, these two guys have the same value as starting pitchers over the last year plus. The defenses and bullpens have performed similarly, while the offenses have too (PHI 103 Road wRC+ last season, 102 wRC+ overall last seven days, STL 102 at home, 100 L7). Yes, despite those numbers the Phillies are the team projected to go to the playoffs, while the Cardinals are expected to rebuild, but I don’t see the massive advantage in this spot and will happily side with the home dog at +120 or better.
Rockies @ Padres
All of German Marquez’s pitches grade poorly through two starts (5.89 Bot ERA, 83 Pitching+). He hasn’t allowed a barrel yet, but has struck out just seven of 45 batters (8.7 SwStr%) and walked five A’s last time out. This is a guy who’s only pitched 35 major league innings over the last three innings, so we’re still trying to figure out what he has, but even the raw stuff grades without command are pretty rough for everything except the curveball.
Opp wRC+: 116
DEF: 4/24
B30: 3.67
BSR: 0
Nick Pivetta went from not being able to get LHBs out to not being able to get RHBs out. And the cause is likely the sweeper. If that sound strange to you, it’s because he has to change his release angle so much to throw it that everyone knows it’s coming. He’s only thrown it 17.7% this year (25.7% last year), while mixing in a few other pitches against RHBs with solid results (.299 wOBA), but he still got shelled in his second start against the Cubs after shutting down an ice cold Atlanta offense first time out. Pitch modeling still grades the sweeper as Pivetta’s best pitch (though they like his fastball too), but they can’t possibly include the fact that he may be telegraphing it. The good news is that Statcast drops RHBs from a .342 wOBA against him since last year to .311 and the park upgrade this year should help.
Opp wRC+: 84
DEF: 0/-7
B30: 3.58
BSR: 2
Pivetta is fine here, one of the better pitchers on this slate in a great spot, but he’s also adequately priced above $9K. Alternately, in the small sample we mentioned above, RHBs have a .338 xwOBA against Marquez (that nullifies stadium). I’m not shying away from them when most unprotected parks are going to play poorly for bats tonight.
Rangers @ Mariners
A 96.7 mph average fastball velocity and 16.8 SwStr% sounds monstrous, but it’s somewhat pedestrian for Jacob deGrom, who announced his intention to tone it down, hoping for better health as a tradeoff. It worked fine against the Red Sox, but the Rays smoked two home runs on three barrels, while striking out just three times in the same building. That said, a 16.8 SwStr% is going to mean much more than his current 20.5 K% going forward, but maybe this is All Star deGrom instead of best pitcher of the last the last decade deGrom? The guy hasn’t thrown anything except a fastball or slider more than 10% of the time since 2020. He’s gotta dust off that changeup (45 PB, 76 P+) a bit.
Opp wRC+: 107
DEF: 25/-3
B30: 3.32
BSR: -2
Bryce Miller, who’s home K-BB (24%) more than doubled his road mark (11.2%) last year, struck out just four A’s in his first home start of the season, then he pitched in the park most similar to T-Mobile and only struck out four Giants. His velocity is down nearly a mph, more so in his second start, while he’s generated a mere average 10.4 SwStr%. His curveball usage has spiked (4.4% to 19.1%) in lieu of the fastball (42.3% to 29.5%) and pitch modeling systems grade both below average. Heck, they don’t like anything this year except PitchingBot on his splitter (56). The splitter seemed to solve Miller’s issues with LHBs since last year (.291 wOBA). Or, again, was that just the park (.332 xwOBA)?
Opp wRC+: 95
DEF: -13/-2
B30: 3.87
BSR: -5
If you get a chance, watch Mike Petriello’s segment on MLBNow Friday. He talks about how this park spikes strikeouts, so maybe we get the old deGrom back for one night. Not the velocity, but the results. He’s my top overall pitcher (no secret) and maybe even one of the better values on the board for less than $10K. However, that may also make him more popular than we like, even on a 13 (or perhaps 11 or 12) game slate. Miller doesn’t cost much less in a lower upside matchup. Needless to say, with a game total of 6.5, we’re not interested in bats in the least here.
Brewers @ Diamondbacks
Still not confirmed, Roster Resource is listing Jose Quintana for this spot. He did not have a single estimator within two thirds of a run of his 3.75 ERA last season and is unlikely to repeat a BABIP 40 points below his career average or a strand rate nearly five points above. Batters from either side of the plate were between a .308 and .333 wOBA and xwOBA against him. His K-BB% has declined every year since 2020, but he’s kept the barrels to a minimum (5.9% with a 35.9 HardHit% since 2022).
Opp wRC+: 119
DEF: 23/24
B30: 5.11
BSR: 11
Eduardo Rodriguez struck out 12 Nationals last time out on 13 whiffs. I count 10 fastballs that were taken for called strikes and another seven that were swung and missed on. That is not going to happen often. Pitch modeling grades the heater perfectly average, while disliking the cutter, while really enjoying the change (60 PB, 112 P+). His 4.12 Bot ERA and 97 Pitching+ are both his best marks since 2021. If he keeps it up and stays healthy, maybe he returns to being a league average pitcher, which the Diamondbacks could use. RHBs are within two points of a .360 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year, so that has to improve and perhaps the changeup will solve that problem.
Opp wRC+: 99
DEF: 27/7
B30: 2.55
BSR: 4
Roof already confirmed closed, this is a neutral run environment, also one of the best on Friday. I am not high on the upside of either pitcher, especially with ERod above $8K now. I’m certainly looking hard at Arizona bats, likely no matter who is determined to start here. Their 4.71 team run total is behind only a pair of teams playing in minor league stadiums tonight.
Mets @ Athletics
The Mets have dialed back Griffin Canning’s fastball usage to 30.7%, which is probably still too much. The pitch has never reached a league average score from either modeling system, including a 35 mark from PB since last season and below 75 via Pitching+. The slider and change, which he’s now throwing two-thirds of the time, are both league average or better pitches. He’s not an All-Star, walking five of 40 batters with 10 strikeouts and a 56 HardHit% so far, but it’s the least he has to do to become relevant again. Batters from the left-side have a .359 wOBA and .345 xwOBA against him since last year. Stop throwing them fastballs.
Opp wRC+: 99
DEF: 5/2
B30: 3.46
BSR: -5
J.P. Sears has a pair of quality starts pitching in the two most diverse parks in the league so far (Seattle, Colorado). Of course, the numbers in the former were better, including his velocity by a full mph. Sears has posted an 11.8 SwStr%, but 45 HardHit% so far and doesn’t have a single estimator below his 4.32 ERA since last season, while RHBs have a .332 wOBA and .340 xwOBA against him over that span. Both pitch modeling systems really like the slider, as they did last year, while the fastball, already below average, has declined further in grade so far.
Opp wRC+: 118
DEF: -41/-14
B30: 3.27
BSR: -4
Around 70 degrees with a near double digit wind out to left-center and the same dimensions as Oakland. How will that play here? Canning may not be the worst choice for his cost on DK ($7.3K), but I’d rather focus on RH Mets against Sears. They have the top team total on the board (5.02).
Cubs @ Dodgers
Matthew Boyd has been a quality arm since returning from injury last year. Over 10 game starts now, he’s posted a 26.5 K% with just 6.7% Barrels/BBE, while batters from either side of the plate have been below average against him. Boyd had a 14.3 HR/FB through 2020, but just 9.4% since. His velocity has been up around a mph in both starts, but that said, pitch modeling is not favorable (4.53 Bot ERA, 87 Pitching+). That’s not far from last year’s marks though, or his career. So either there’s something they’re not capturing here or we’re still dealing with a small sample size over this 10 start span.
Opp wRC+: 121
DEF: 15/42
B30: 3.39
BSR: 2
Three starts in already, Yoshi Yama has worked himself up to 97 pitches and six innings last time out. Is he going to be their workhorse this year? Ten of his 19 strikeouts came against Detroit, but also his only two home runs and two thirds of his earned runs. His 13.4 SwStr% is up a bit from last year with just a single barrel allowed. All of his pitches grade well above average (2.73 Bot ERA, 117 Pitching+ are both improvements on last year) and perhaps most importantly, the wRC+ against the fastball has dropped from 114 to 39. He’s throwing the pitch up in the zone more often this year, which is a pleasant development. Perhaps that will improve upon the .326 wOBA and .305 xwOBA RHBs have against him in his career.
Opp wRC+: 102
DEF: -3/-19
B30: 4.51
BSR: 3
Neutral weather in Dodger Stadium, making it a neutral run and power friendly environment. After glowing about Yamamoto, the most expensive pitcher on the board tonight, why am I siding with the Cubs. As seen above, the Cubs have a massive defensive edge on the Dodgers, easily their biggest edge in this game, but the offenses have virtually the same wRC+ so far too. I don’t think Boyd is nearly as good as his 2.13 ERA in 10 starts since last year, but he may be as good as estimators that don’t exceed four, which are better than his pitch modeling grades. As far as daily fantasy goes, I don’t hate paying up for Yamamoto, but I’d rather go deGrom in a much superior situation. Otherwise, I don’t have a ton of interest in this game either way.
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented/projected lineup(Roster Resource) Fielding Run Value
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (remember that teams will only be throwing their top arms and even backend starters out of the pen in a short series, making these numbers less useful)
BSR: Projected Lineup Base Running Runs
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