I’m pretty excited about some stuff I saw last week. First, there was an article on Fangraphs mentioning swing paths and then Mike Petriello reveals on MLBNow that this was information that Statcast would begin including soon.
I’ve long wondered if there were a better way to evaluate players than simple R/L splits. For a while a few years back, I would try to include ground ball/fly ball pitchers/batters with info from Baseball-Reference, but it was difficult.
I think this is what the incoming information tells us though. Why do fly ball hitters excel against ground ball pitchers and vice versa? Swing paths hit certain pitches better than others.
You might have noticed that some teams are leaning into reverse splits more with their lineups this year or that some teams, like the Mets, aren’t sticking with the full left-handed or right-handed versions of their platoons against certain pitchers. They’ve even mentioned they’re matching up by swing paths.
This is an exciting new avenue of baseball research and, much like the wind effect on pitches, I’m extremely interested to see where it goes.
We’ve moved on to 2025 stats below. Just remember that they are all still small sample sizes. Legend at the bottom of the page.
If you find the information on this site helpful, the tip jar is open at mtrollo86@gmail.com on Paypal.
Nationals @ Pirates
Brad Lord made his first major league start after three relief appearances and has thrown 97 pitches in all. Projections for him run the gamut from low fours to low fives, but with only six starts and most his work out of the bullpen. He’s both walked and struck out four with a 6.2 SwStr%. He basically just throws fastballs and sinkers, the latter graded better than the former.
Opp wRC+: 69
DEF: -1/-1
B30: 4.85
BSR: -1
Despite striking out seven of 26 Cardinals without a barrel and just one walk, a 55.6 HardHit% helped put five runs on the board against Paul Skenes. He threw a lot more sliders (27.6%) in the outing and even had his best grades of the year on the pitch (58 PB, 124 P+), but his fastball grades were just average. He only allowed seven base runners and the velocity was only very slightly down. Seems like just one of those days, unless it becomes more.
Opp wRC+: 111
DEF: 2/-3
B30: 4.17
BSR: -1
The Pirates (70 wRC+ Home, 58 L7 days) aren’t hitting at all. If we trust that the Nationals are a full 40 points or so better against RHP (I don’t), then I suppose I need to consider the Nationals at close to +200. However, the large majority, if not all of Pittsburgh’s edge exits with Skenes. Maybe a little stabby stabyy here won’t hurt too much. (Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network.)
Giants @ Phillies
Both pitch modeling systems really like Landon Roupp’s curveball (61 PB, 126 P+), but the Phillies have hit curveballs well early on (1.01 wCU/C). His command can be erratic.
Opp wRC+: 102
DEF: -4/-3
B30: 3.39
BSR: -2
Taijuan Walker hasn’t allowed a run over 10.1 innings and it’s nice to see the velocity up over a mph from last year, but with a 13.5 SwStr% against the Rockies and then just 5.3% against Atlanta, I’m not buying it. He has just a 31 HardHit%, but he’s throwing six pitches between 10% and 24% of the time and only PitchingBot grades only the splitter above 43, while nothing reaches average by Pitching+ standards.
Opp wRC+: 109
DEF: 1/3
B30: 3.77
BSR: 2
This game is off the main DFS slate and not out of line in any way. I have nothing to add here.
Red Sox @ Rays
Tanner Houck allowed a single run over 6.2 innings to the Blue Jays last time out in cold Fenway weather. However, he only struck out two (4.4 SwStr% was his worst of the season). It was his first start with a hard hit rate below 60% (still 53.1% season). The spiltter grades popped for this matchup (55 PB, 131 P+), but the slider still appears a mess. Concerning Tampa Bay’s offensive numbers, I’m not sure the park effects have been properly calibrated yet.
Opp wRC+: 127
DEF: -3/-1
B30: 3.49
BSR: 2
While Shane Baz walked four Angels in his second start, he’s struck out 16 of 51 batters with nearly half his contact on the ground (48.4%). Those may be key attributes in this park. His velocity remains above 96 mph, a full mph increase from last season. Both modeling systems love the change (63 PB, 130 P+).
Opp wRC+: 98
DEF: 0/-5
B30: 4.05
BSR: 2
The Rays have been the better team so far and I think Baz may have refound himself, while Houck is still struggling to. We can avoid a strong Boston pen by taking a small Tampa Bay favorite F5 (-115). From a daily fantasy perspective, this is probably going to be the most positive run environment on the board, but the bottom six in the projected Boston order all strike out more than 25% of the time against RHP since last year. Baz is getting expensive though.
Royals @ Yankees
Seth Lugo has only allowed a single barrel through three starts, but with a 45.7 HardHit%. His 11.0 SwStr% against the Twins last time out doubled either of his first two starts. The fastball (43 PB, 83 P+) or curveball (54, 104) are still combining for 50% of his pitches, but he’ll hit you with the kitchen sink the other half of the time. Everything still suggests he’s an average pitcher.
Opp wRC+: 133
DEF: -2/-3
B30: 4.28
BSR: 1
The Tigers took Carlos Carrasco deep three times on five barrels last time out and he’s now allowed eight barrels, which comprise 20.5% of his contact. His PitchingBot grades look fine, for what they’re asking him for (4.26 Bot ERA), while the Pitching+ is only at 89. Nobody’s asking him to carry the rotation, but LHBs are now above a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year, while RHBs are above .320 too.
Opp wRC+: 61
DEF: 1/2
B30: 3.62
BSR: 0
To fill out the numbers above a bit more, NYY 169 wRC+ at home, but 76 over the last seven days, while the Royals are at 69 on the road and 57 last seven. The Yankees are basically doubling up on the Royals offensively and have a much better bullpen too. From a daily fantasy perspective, I’m not on either of these pitchers, though Lugo is not really a guy worth attacking most times either. It’s supposed to be in the high 50s on Monday night in the Bronx.
Braves @ Blue Jays
Grant Holmes struck out six of 19 Phillies last time out with 12 whiffs. However, he threw over 100 pitches and lasted only four innings. The slider was responsible for nine of those whiffs. Problematically, pitch grades are down (5.25 Bot ERA, 89 Pitching+). But they weren’t that great last year when he excelled.
Opp wRC+: 95
DEF: 2/4
B30: 4.15
BSR: -1
Easton Lucas struck out eight of 20 Red Sox last time out with 12 whiffs in 82 pitches. A simple fastball/slider/changeup mix with 17.9 iVB on the former, giving It a 58 PB and 111 P+ grade, while the slider needs a bit of work (38, 93). His major league career only consists of 38.2 innings (10.1 this year) without much prospect hype, but he’s made himself interesting. Can he capitalize on a great start in Boston or was there just something up with the wind that day? Do note that even though we’re still dealing with small samples, that’s an atrocious performance by the Braves against LHP so far.
Opp wRC+: 56
DEF: 2/-1
B30: 3.44
BSR: 0
First of all, not a single projected Toronto batter reaches a 20 K% against RHP since last year. We’re really not going to be looking to roster a lot of pitchers against them this year. On the other hands, Lucas is interesting. There are strikeouts in this underachieving Altanta lineup, but he suddenly costs more than I expected. Again, I think we’re at a point where the market may be behind some of these younger pitchers. I may be wrong too, but with a better performing bullpen too, I’ll take a shot with the Jays at pick’em.
Mets @ Twins
While Clay Holmes has now walked nine of 69 batters and recorded just one sixth inning out in three starts, he’s also struck out 20. The velocity was down last time out. Was that the cold weather or a concentrated effort to improve command? He did convert 87 pitches into 13 whiffs. He’s not throwing the new changeup all that often (14.6%), but should be (67 PB, 137 P+), though pitch modeling likes the sweeper too (57, 118).
Opp wRC+: 94
DEF: 2/1
B30: 3.01
BSR: 2
Joe Ryan’s velocity was up to 93.1 mph in his last start, still 0.9 mph from what he averaged last year. While the 23.4 K% isn’t too impressive, he hasn’t walked a batter yet. Pitch modeling still likes the fastball, even if not as much as last year. The splitter grades have dropped below average though (48 PB, 88 P+).
Opp wRC+: 82
DEF: -2/-1
B30: 3.59
BSR: 1
I’m really getting sick of cold, wet and windy already, but we’re getting more of it here. Depending on which way the wind is blowing and if the rain isn’t too bad, I could go for an under here. Neither team is hitting and while the Mets bullpen has been great, the Twins were projected to have the best bullpen this season. For daily fantasy purposes, Ryan may be a bit expensive with few swings and misses, but Holmes should be playable for $7.5K on DraftKings.
Tigers @ Brewers
After struggling a bit more than some might have expected in starts in LA (NL) and Seattle, Tarik Skubal threw six shutout innings at the mighty Yankees in his home debut. Also of concern, he’d allowed five barrels in those first two starts, but none against the Yankees and has just a 32.7 HardHit% on the season. While the 23.2 K% might be a bit light, he complements it with a 15.8 SwStr%, 1.2 points higher than last year. Skubal’s fastball received the ultimate 80 PitchingBot grade against the Yankees (166 Pitching+). Speaking of that fastball, it’s a pitch the Brewers have struggled to hit early on this season (-0.95 wFA/C).
Opp wRC+: 80
DEF: 1/-2
B30: 3.75
BSR: 1
Tyler Alexander revenge game here. After two early relief appearances against the Yankees, he’s struck out nine of 40 Reds and Rockies (9.3 SwStr%) with five walks. The contact profile is slightly towards the hard side and a poor heater (41 PB, 65 P+) that he throws about one-third of the time is a pitch the Tigers have hit well (0.1 wFA/C). Batters from the right side have a .331 wOBA and .346 xwOBA against Alexander since last year.
Opp wRC+: 93
DEF: 1/-2
B30: 4.25
BSR: 1
Protected negative run environment in Milwaukee. I bet the 94 Park Run Factor with the roof closed over the last three rolling years (not counting this month) surprised you. Skubal is my top pitcher on the board, but also the most obvious. However, he’s not the most expensive arm on FanDuel. The Tigers have a middling 4.1 implied run total and I think that’s a bit low. Torres, Tork and Malloy all exceed a 130 wRC+ and .200 ISO v LHP since last season.
Astros @ Cardinals
Despite a virus running through the clubhouse prior to Framber Valdez’s last start, concerns were unwarranted. He struck out at least eight for the second straight start and has exceeded an 11.5 SwStr% in all three starts. Everything looks good here (29.6 K%, 53.7 GB%), especially the curveball (36.4%, 60 PB, 127 P+), a pitch the Cardinals have failed to have much success with early on (-0.7 wCU/C).
Opp wRC+: 128
DEF: 6/3
B30: 2.93
BSR: 0
Damn the velocity, Sonny Gray just throws his other pitches when he doesn’t have it. Twice this season in three starts, he’s sat closer to 91 than above 92 and each time, he threw his fastball less than 20% of the time. Early results are a 27.4 K-BB% with a still problematic contact profile (15.4% Barrels/BBE, 48.7 HardHit%). However, Gray’s issues since last season have been with LHBs (.328 wOBA, .317 xwOBA), while RHBs have been held below .290. The Astros only have one mighty LHB remaining. Somehow, the fastball has remained Gray’s best graded pitch (68 PB, 105 P+) and one the Astros have not hit at all (-1.37 wFA/C). The overall 3.55 Bot ERA exceeds a perfectly even 100 Pitching+.
Opp wRC+: 90
DEF: 6/3
B30: 3.72
BSR: 0
Why play the Cardinals as even money home dogs last night (up to -110 now)? It’s not Valdez I don’t believe in. It’s the Houston offense. A lineup stacked with marginal RHBs stacks up well for Gray (though he did struggle most with a similar Angels’ lineup). Temps around 60 with a double digit wind out to right field is a bit of a waste with one LHB for the Astros and the left-handed Framber keeping most contact on the ground. I do like Gray as a daily fantasy option too. In fact, he may be my top value. There are enough strikeouts in this lineup generally now. Valdez should be fine too, but is the most expensive bat on FD and the Cardinals still have some quality lefty mashers.
Cubs @ Padres
After getting pounded by the D’Backs first time out, Jameson Taillon has responded with two straight quality starts (A’s, Rangers). He’s not a guy they expect to dominate, so a 14.1 K-BB% is fine, in line with last year and not too far below his career rate. The six barrels are a bit much, but with three coming in that first start and a league average hard hit rate, it’s not too concerning. Taillon has posted some stunning pitch modeling results so far (2.86 Bot ERA without a below average pitch and 107 Pitching+). Additionally, with Cronenworth and Merrill out, the Padres can’t take advantage of his platoon issues (though they aren’t enormous anyway). Gavin Sheets is hitting cleanup against RHP these days.
Opp wRC+: 130
DEF: 3/4
B30: 4.13
BSR: 0
Dylan Cease’s 18.2 K-BB% is right on his career rate (18.3%), but he’s struggled in two of his three starts, including getting smoked by the A’s for nine runs last time out and faces his toughest test here. The .390 BABIP and 46.3 LOB% are completely unsustainable and with three of his five barrels first time out, the contact profile isn’t too harsh (38.1 HardHit%). He still doesn’t have a strong out pitch against LHBs, but the Guardians, the most left-handed offense he’s faced, is the only one he’s had success against and he’s still held them below a .300 wOBA and xwOBA since last year. The slider remains dominant (65 PB, 133 P+), but the fastball has graded poorly (below 40 PB and below 80 P+) in each of his last two starts. Likely more due to command than anything else.
Opp wRC+: 125
DEF: -4/-3
B30: 3.24
BSR: 3
I was borderline on the Cubs last night and think I convinced myself here, but the line has dropped past a point I’m comfortable with (want +140 or better). That said, I think Cease will be alright and would take a shot with him for just $8.4K on FanDuel, $1.4K below his cost on DK. The problem with rostering Taillon in a great park is that the Padres, like the Jays, offer so few strikeouts. Even with the injured bats, nobody projected reaches a 21 K% against RHP since last year. I don’t buy into San Diego being able to keep up this pace, but the Chicago offense might be legit. I don’t hate a contrarian Cubbies stack here.
Rockies @ Dodgers
After allowing 19 hits and two walks to 46 batters without a run in his first two starts, Antonio Senzatela finally had his comeuppance in his first home start against the Brewers. Two of his three barrels left the park and nine of the 22 batters he faced crossed the plate. He’s now faced 122 batters since returning from injury last year and batters from both sides of the plate reach a .400 wOBA and xwOBA against him.
Opp wRC+: 122
DEF: 2/4
B30: 5.40
BSR: 1
Dustin May has allowed just four hits and one earned run over 11 innings and 43 batters faced, but after striking out six Braves (with three walks), he struck out just a single National last time out (with three walks). He’s also sitting at 95 mph now, more than two mph below his career average. It gets even worse because May throws his sinker just as much as his fastball and that was down to 93.8 mph last time out from a career 97 mph. Pitch modeling systems are still grading the sinker well (64 PB, 117 P+), but it’s his only above average pitch so far (3.94 Bot ERA, but 92 P+).
Opp wRC+: 59
DEF: -1/1
B30: 3.18
BSR: -1
I’m slightly concerned about May, but it’s just one poor start and he should be fine here even if he throws underhanded to this lineup. However, I’d prefer to go underweight on him tonight. It’s not like the Dodgers are going to let him hit 100 pitches anyway. Dodger bats, yeah, obviously, jam them all in, but note that it is so obvious.
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented/projected lineup(Roster Resource) Fielding Run Value
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
BSR: Projected Lineup Base Running Runs
Add comment
Comments