As mentioned in the season intro post, there are three significant park alterations to consider this year. Two teams have moved to temporary parks (expected to last at least the entire season), while one has made dimensional changes. We'll cover the latter first, since it's the most familiar.
Baltimore Moves the Walls Back In
Prior to the 2022 season, the Orioles moved the left field wall back and raised it's height after Gleyber Torres hit 382 home runs against Baltimore pitching there in a single season. At the time of the move, Camden Yards had a three year park home run factor of 125 for RHBs (25% above average). The result was a 79 park home run factor for RHBs since (21% below average). While that's tied with San Francisco, only Cleveland and Pittsburgh dealt bigger death blows to right-handed power.
Now that the mighty Gleyber is out of the divisions, the walls at Camden Yards are being moved back in and shortened in height. Not all the way back in, mind you, but 9 to 20 feet along various points across left field. Interesting to note, when taking only the 2024 season into consideration, Camden had a 90 park home run factor for RHBs, only ninth worst in the league or essentially middle of the pack.
How will this effect how the park plays?
We can't be sure until we see games, but perhaps we should expect something close to neutrality.
How will it effect the park overall?
Single season park run factors are generally all over the place (weather plays a part and is not stable year to year) and that's true for Camden as well.
2019: 110 - 2020: 88 (shortened year) - 2021: 117
2022: 98 - 2023: 92 - 2024: 104
Using three year rolling park factors, Camden was between 104 and 110 every three year rolling period from 2008 through 2021. It slowly dropped down below 100 for the first time since 2005 last year. Camden had a 98 park run factor in each of the rolling three years (2005 & 2024).
While it's curious to see the park play so positively last season, it may not hit that number again, even with improved hitting conditions this year. I would expect it to be back to slightly overall above average, but remember, more home runs doesn't necessarily mean more run scoring overall.
Over the last three years, Cincinnati is the top park for power hitters in the majors and has a 110 run factor over the same span, but the next seven most generous power parks have run factors over the same period no higher than 102 and as low as 94 (Milwaukee). Despite Kansas City being the fourth most power suppressing park, it has the fourth highest run factor (108). Pittsburgh has played slightly run friendly too (102), despite suppressing power just as much. The second and third most power friendly parks (Dodgers Stadium and Yankee Stadium) have played exactly run neutral (100) over the last three years.
As we move on, two teams have moved to temporary homes this season.
The Ray Will Play at Steinbrenner Field
The good news is that the Rays are staying in Tampa. Well, at least this year and I'm not even sure that's good news. The bad news is that they'll be playing at their division rivals' spring training park, named after their owner. The Trop was rendered uninhabitable after the roof was blown off the place. Not in a good way and entirely unintentional, the result of a hurricane late last year.
We know that the park has the same dimensions as Yankee Stadium, so we should expect it to play the same. No, I know you're all smarter than that. Steinbrenner Field has different wind patterns. In fact, Orioles' manager Brandon Hyde called it Yankee Stadium with a jet stream out to right field. That is going to be an absolute boon to...well, I can't think of any left-handed power hitters for the Rays immediately. At least not any that have been healthy the last few years. Regardless, that sounds like a lot of home runs for LHBs and certainly a downgrade for Tampa Bay pitchers.
Expect this park to play substantially more hitter friendly than the Trop, but by how much is very difficult to say. Since there are minor league games played there, I found park factors for 2021-22 that were essentially run neutral, while slightly inflating homers (102), which sounds much less ominous than the quote mentioned above. A more recent source has a 104 park home run factor for 2022-23, but doesn't split that into L/RHBs. Either way, the Trop was a firmly negative run environment. This park shouldn't be.
The A's Move to Sacramento
The Athletics, who are so lost they don't even have a city or state affixed to their named anymore, will play at least the 2025 season in Sacramento. The venue known as Sutter Health Park, also a minor league stadium, is where home games will be played. The dimensions are very similar to the Coliseum, but should we expect the park to play more hitter friendly due to warmer temperatures?
Baseball America park factors from 2022-23 cite an 87 overall wOBA park factor for minor league batters with the split of 86 for RHBs & 89 for LHBs. The overall HR factor is 80. That's all pretty close to, if not worse than Oakland. Perhaps the most eye catching metric is a 111 strikeout factor overall. That means Sutter increases strikeouts by 11%. Baseball America subscribers have access to recently released three year park factors. That doesn't mean it's going to play exactly the same as a major league venue, but the numbers are a bit surprising after hearing some of the players say they expected it to play better for hitters.
One aspect to certainly be aware of is that the Coliseum had, by far, the most foul territory available on the field of any park in the league. The result being a lot more foul pop ups remaining playable. While I don't know the exact ramifications of Sutter, the reasonable assumption would be something less extreme at the very least. That may be where players expect some extra offense to come from, yet the numbers are the numbers.
There was also a movement to have the A's playing on synthetic turf, but that has been abandoned in favor of natural grass.
To recap, while all three parks played pitcher friendly and/or power suppressing the last few years, at least two of the the three will likely play more hitter friendly this year with the Athletics potentially experiencing the least variance. The data suggests that we shouldn't expect Baltimore or Tampa Bay to veer far from neutrality, at least as far as run scoring goes.
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