With 29 of the 30 pitchers for Opening Day confirmed before the weekend and the Dodgers strongly hinting at Blake Snell, I thought I’d be able to spend a few days on a detailed OD pitching article. However, Microsoft Excel had other ideas. I recently upgraded to 365 because their support team said it would solve all my problems. Admittedly, I was using a much older version (2013) because I was afraid of exactly what happened. In fact, none of my problems went away and many more were created, as the newer version did not recognize and refused to import my Fangraphs exports.
Microsoft report gave me a few tips to stop Excel from “protecting” me from everything, but after the errors persisted (like telling me my imports were blank for some reason), I got the “shrug” from them. Instead of spending the weekend writing up pitching information, I spent it reconfiguring import connections from scratch. If I have to manually import everything each day, it’s going to be a very short season.
On to the actual games. This far out (it’s Monday morning as I type this), we’re not going to have weather or umpiring information. I’d love to be able to find head/tailwind forecasts, but I imagine that will be impossible. I can’t even remember where I found umpires last season.
At least for this article, I'm going to post game by game as I write them up, but could end up going back to edit later on. The first few weeks are always a feeling out process. I’ll try to add in some DFS notes at some point, but not sure exactly how that’s going to look this season.
All stats from last season at this point. Legend at the bottom of the page.
If you find the information on this site helpful, the tip jar is open at mtrollo86@gmail.com on Paypal.
Brewers @ Yankees
Freddy Peralta was torched for 10 of the 13 runs he let up this spring in his last outing. In itself, not a big deal, but he also walked four in that game and allowed four home runs to 61 batters during the exhibition season. Walks (9.4% last season) and home runs (13.1% HR/FB last season) basically turn a strong strikeout rate (27.6%) into an average pitcher here, though with a lot of volatility from start to start. Peralta did produce a reverse split last year, though it doesn’t make a ton of sense as he threw either his fastball or slider around three quarters of the time and the change was his worst graded pitch. I wouldn’t anticipate this being a strong spot for him (without knowing weather or umpiring), despite the Yankees projected to throw six LHBs at him. There could be some strikeouts here for him though with six of nine projected at a 23.5% or higher strikeout rate against RHPs last season.
Opp wRC+: 120 (11.2 K-BB%, 15.8 HR/FB) Soto out, Bellinger + Goldschmidt in
DEF: 23/16 – While both numbers are last season, the second # is proj. LU for this game.
B30: 11 – 3.90 – 4.01 – 3.2 (Williams on other side now) Fangraphs Depth Charts proj. rank-ERA-FIP-WAR
BSR: 2 (Should be a good number. Actual proj. LU for this game’s combined #s from last year)
Carlos Rodon only posted an 8.7 K-BB% to 46 batters this pre-season, but was working on a changeup to RHBs that looked good, according to Pitcher’s List. That’s excellent news because RHBs torched him for a .330 wOBA/.323 xwOBA last year, including 28 of the 31 home runs he allowed. Like Peralta, a 13.4% HR/FB and 7.7 BB% turn a 26.5 K% into an average pitcher. While Rodon is similarly volatile as well, he’s more of a steaky pitcher with exceptional stuff. Also a fastball/slider guy three quarters of the time, those pitchers grade exceptionally well by modeling (PitchingBot, Stuff+) with some disagreement on a seldom used changeup. If the changeup can become more of a weapon this year, Rodon will go from a middle of the rotation are back into a top the rotation one. The Brewers may keep some LHBs in against same-handed pitching this year, though Yelich is probably the only given. Like the Yankee order, only three projected Milwaukee batters were below a 23.7 K% vs LHP last year. I like this spot for Rodon more than Peralta obviously with both costing the same on the FanDuel main slate, which includes the pair of early games.
Opp wRC+: 99 (Adames out, new names like Capra & Collins proj. v LHP)
DEF: 4/21
B30: 5 – 3.95 – 4.03 – 4.0 (Added Cruz too)
BSR: 4
I find it a bit strange that both bullpens, while separated by ranking and fWAR have the same ERA/FIP projections right around league average. I tentatively project each pitcher for around six strikeouts (Rodon slightly above six, Peralta slightly below), though I don’t currently see anything except moneylines posted for games so far. I have the Yankees projected for smaller favorites than they are in this game and would generally back the Brewers mid-season, but am looking for slightly larger edges early on. As is, the Brewers are a borderline half a unit play at +140 or higher, but a likely pass for me. I wouldn’t hate some of the more powerful bats in these lineups against home run prone pitchers in daily fantasy, depending on the weather, but remember this is one of the parks where head/tailwinds could have a large effect early in the season.
Orioles @ Blue Jays
Zach Eflin is a control pitcher (3.5 BB% last year), who doesn’t strike out very many (19.6%, but 26.5% in 2023 and 20.8% career) and doesn’t get hit too hard when he’s on. It’s a boring, vanilla profile, but that’s perfectly fine in the middle of the rotation, less exciting in an Opening Day start. The velocity was down a bit in March, but that’s less concerning for veterans with a locked in spot. The Blue Jays hope to increase their modest power output with the addition of Santander, but the bottom of the lineup is still very weak. However, not a single person in this projected lineup reached even a 20 K% against RHP last year and they averaged around 15%. This is a lineup that is going to stifle daily fantasy pitching upside this year and Eflin already starts from a marginal point, while his reverse split doesn’t give him any advantage here. As we can see below, the Baltimore defense is about neutral with or without Henderson, but Toronto is one of the worst base running teams in the league. Bautista’s return has the Orioles projected as one of the elite pens in the league.
Opp wRC+: 106 (20 K% - Added Santander & Gimenez)
DEF: -1/1
B30: 2 – 3.81 – 3.88 – 4.3 (Bautista back!)
BSR: -8
Yet another volatile pitcher on this opening slate, Jose Berrios goes as the curve or slurve goes. He combined his highest walk rate in four years (6.9%) with his lowest strikeout rate (19.5%) to combine for a 12.6 K-BB%, the worst of his career in any season with more than 60 innings pitched. As he’s generally a below average contact manager, this could be the recipe for a below average pitcher. In fact, his 3.60 ERA last season was marred by indicators all at least 0.6 runs higher. Berrios didn’t have an individual pitch grade reaching 90 Stuff+ last season with a 43 PithcingBot overall grade, but 56 Command grade and 91 Stuff+ overall due to the positive command. This is still a strong lineup against RHP without Henderson, but maybe less of an elite one. Only four projected batters reach a 20 K% vs RHP last year, but three of them are above 29%. Berrios didn’t have much of a split last year, but batters from either side were slightly above a .300 wOBA, yet .330 xwOBA. One positive aspect which may point to a more sustainable ERA/Estimator gap is one of the best defenses in the league behind him. Unfortunately, the Blue Jays had one of the worst bullpens in the league for most of the season, some of that due to injuries. A healthier version projects more middle of the back, though lower half of the league still.
Opp wRC+: 115 (Santander on the other side, Henderson IL – O’Niell imported from Boston)
DEF: 24/24
B30: 19 – 3.93 – 4.05 – 2.6
BSR: 0
Eflin is the most stable pitcher of the two, but there’s not a large overall difference when including defense. Lineups aren’t that far apart either, considering the Santander flip and Henderson IL. I would have no interest in either pitcher for daily fantasy purposes, even in a controlled environment (Toronto a neutral park run factor within two points roof open or closed). Bats are kind of marginal. Some exposure to either lineup in multi-entry is fine, but not obligatory. I only project slightly above three strikeouts for Eflin and right around five for Berrios with the O’s a small road favorite here, which is exactly what they are.
Red Sox @ Rangers
The White Sox took very good care of Garrett Crochet for the Red Sox. He struck out 45.5% of the 66 batters he faced this spring and is coming off a 29.6 K-BB% last season. The gloves should be off and he may even be the Cy Young favorite this year. The only concern is a tougher park when he pitches at home and a stronger division, but drawing Garrett Crochett is like being dealt pocket Aces. The fastball and cutter are elite by model grading, batters from either side of the plate were below a .290 wOBA and xwOBA against him last year and his worst estimator was a 2.85 xERA because he allowed 9.2% Barrels/BBE.
As mentioned below, I expect a much better effort from the Texas lineup this season (assuming better health). I love Langford’s bat and would expect more from Carter if healthy. There still should be enough strikeouts for Crochet in this lineup if you’re thinking about a daily fantasy starter. I have him projected for seven. Crochet also gets an upgraded defense, as that’s part of what Boston invested in this off-season. The bullpen was a major weakness last year and I’m not sure I agree they’re a top 10 one with Chapman the closing (the Red Sox seem to be cycling through the out going generations elite closers the last few years with Kimbrell and Jansen preceding and even Liam Hendricks on this roster). The ERA/FIP portion of it looks right though.
Opp wRC+: 97 (24 K% - swapped Lowe for a Burger, expect them to be much better with a healthier 2025)
DEF: -10/9 (BOS improved defense)
B30: 9 – 4.10 – 4.04 – 3.7 (bullpen major problem last year, don’t get this ranking)
BSR: 1
Nathan Eovaldi probably isn’t an ideal Opening Day pitcher at this point in his career, but he can still get the job done when healthy (something he’s struggled with). There’s nothing wrong with a 17.9 K-BB% with a 42.6% hard hit rate generating his worst estimator, a 3.91 xERA. All of his pitches graded average or above via modeling with the splitter (59 PB, 106 ST+) the star of the show. Eovaldi did have a standard split last season, holding RHBs well below average, while LHBs were above a .310 wOBA and xwOBA against him. He struck out just 9 of 55 batters this spring, but we’re just looking for health from veteran pitchers in March, unless we see a spike in velocity.
The first six in Boston’s projected lineup against RHP last year exceeded a 120 wRC+ v RHP and Bregman (125 w/ a .190 ISO) should only improve the lineup even if he’s no longer one of the best hitters in the league. There are some strikeouts in this lineup, as Bregman (15.5%) was the only one below a 20.6 K% against RHP last year. The Texas projected lineup appears a massive downgrade from last season, despite it being very similar. Adolis, Jung and Burger seem the biggest culprits. The bullpen was also a problem for the Rangers last year and while they project top half of the league this year, it’s not by much and with both an ERA and FIP slightly above four. The Red Sox should be one of the best base running teams in the league too, though that’s almost all Duran, Abreu and Bregman.
Opp wRC+: 105 (O’Neill out, Bregman in)
DEF: 25/-4 (Yikes!)
B30: 12 – 4.13 – 4.08 – 3.1
BSR: 10
I like both of these teams to step forward and finish above .500 this year (this always assumes good health), but the Red Sox have a large pitching advantage in this game, at least through the first two-thirds or so. Texas is a perfectly neutral run environment with the roof closed, but that jumps up to a 112 run factor on the rare occasions the roof is open (generally very early or late in the season). You may have to consider Boston bats if it is. I have the Red Sox as substantial road favorites through the first five (no line available yet) and marginal favorites for this game. I would certainly consider the Red Sox at even money or better for the full game, but am waiting to see a F5 line first.
You can see if and when I do make that play by following Rocky Jade on Action Network.
Update: The Red Sox are -125 F5 on DraftKings. I have the value on that that same as the full game at even money. Unfortunately, the game is no longer at even money, so just a half unit on the F5.
Phillies @ Nationals
Zach Wheeler will be 35 years old by the time the All-Star break hits. Perhaps his very best peak seasons are behind him, but the only concern we should have about him is that LHBs (.311 wOBA/.313 xwOBA) were more than .100 points better against him than RHBs last year. That does more to establish how absolutely dominant he is against RHBs though. Wheeler through his fastball (67 PB), sinker (64) and sweeper (64) nearly three quarters of the time last year with no other offering more than 10.1%, though he appears to be working on a cutter this pre-season in order to offset some of that left-handed success against him last season. Even with his platoon issue, Wheeler’s worst estimator was a 3.36 dERA. Adding in perennially elite contact management produced a 2.80 xERA.
The Washington offense should be on the climb as some of their previous season sell offs start to really pay dividends. The bullpen rankings are a bit confusing as the Phillies are ranked third, but with an elevated ERA/FIP combination. Part of that may be their home park, but Alvarado has been dominant this preseason, regularly clocking in above the 100 mph mark. Wheeler will generally only need a couple of innings from his bullpen when sharp though.
Opp wRC+: 95 (Only 20.6 K% and should improve w/ Wood and Crews development)
DEF: 9/2
B30: 3 – 4.11 – 4.14 – 4.1 (Romero/Alvarado/Kerkering trio could dominate)
BSR: 1
MacKenzie Gore started out last season as a ball of fire, then went into a sharp and long decline before finishing on more of an up note. Estimators mostly ended up matching his 3.90 ERA for the most part, though the dERA and xERA both sat at 4.20. An 8.9 BB% was his biggest problem and some of those command issues have carried over to this spring. Gore walked seven of 68 batters in Feb/March. The fastball was not the problem at all (64 PB, 103 ST+). The slider (14.3%, 32 PB) command was an issue and part of the reason LHBs were around a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him with RHBs league average (.310).
The Phillies may keep as many as four LHBs in there against LHP and it won’t appear to hurt them here. This is going to be a very tough lineup for Gore to navigate. A massive amount of that positive defense for the Nationals is Jacob Young in center. In fact, Wood, Bell and Ruiz grade strongly negative. Kyle Finnegan went from All Star to released in just a few months, but the Nationals re-signed him to close again only about a month ago. That tells you much of what you need to know about that unit.
Opp wRC+: 118 (Kepler only real change)
DEF: -18/8 (Could be a much better defensive unit)
B30: 28 – 4.36 – 4.44 – 0.7
BSR: 0
Wheeler is probably a strong, but expensive daily fantasy option with a high floor. I could easily see him going seven innings on Opening Day, but have the strikeout projection around five and a half tentatively. Gore, on the other hand, I’d be inclined to have more exposure against than with. I believe the Phillies are slightly too large a favorite here against an up and coming Washington team, though not really enough to be actionable here unless than Nationals move a bit above +150.
Guardians @ Royals
The recently extended Tanner Bibee is now 6’4. (That’s not what extension means?) Regardless, all of Bibee’s estimators exceeded his 3.47 ERA with only the dERA (4.07) above four. A 19.1 K-BB% and average contact profile seems like it deserves better, but he gets punished for the 34.6 GB%. Bibee has strongly graded secondary pitches (all at least 58 PB/105 ST+), throwing a mediocre fastball (51 PB/88 ST+) 43.4% of the time. His velocity was down 1.5 mph in his last tune up, but the Guardians aren’t worried and he has the least to prove in this rotation.
Bibee does have a significant split, but tell me which LH Royals you fear, especially with the Pasquatch potentially starting the season on the IL (hamstring). Go ahead, I’ll wait…
The real problem, from a daily fantasy standpoint is that it’s a contact prone lineup (only Melendez above a 20.5 K% vs RHP among those projected). The Royals have done virtually nothing to compliment Witt in this lineup and Perez is getting up there in age. Kansas City was also awful against sliders last year, Bibee’s best pitch. Despite trading Gimenez, Cleveland still sports an elite defense and the bullpen should be one of the best in the league again, though bullpens are volatile.
Opp wRC+: 99 (19.3 K% - only import India)
DEF: 7/22 (despite trading Gimenez)
B30: 7 – 3.82 – 3.93 – 3.8 (potential to be best in baseball again)
BSR: 4
Cole Ragans followed out his break out season with the Royals (17.6 K-BB%) with a 20.5 K-BB%, allowing just 6.2% Barrels/BBE without a single estimator reaching three and a half. Ragans dropped in velocity as the season went on and showed a tendency to drop late in games too, but only dropped below a 19 K-BB% in September (15.8%), but returned to dominance in the post-season (22 K-BB%). The velocity was up early in the preseason, dropping back to last year’s average (95) in his last start and maybe that’s for the best. I would argue that Ragans is a top five pitcher in the American League this season. The fastball (41.8%) and change (23.7%) grade as elite pitches via PB and Stuff+.
The first four in the projected order all struck out less than 20% of the time against LHP last year, but the last five were all around a quarter of the time or higher. I don’t like this Cleveland lineup at all. It may have more thump now, but Carlos Santana should not be a middle of the order bat for a playoff contender anymore. Both defenses are elite with Witt and Isbel getting most of the credit for the home team. This was a marginal pen last year and projects the same in 2025.
Opp wRC+: 114 (Gimenez & Naylor out, Jones in but not yet in projected lineup on RR, also brought back Santana)
DEF: 25/21
B30: 14 – 4.12 – 4.11 – 2.9
BSR: 4
Two of the reasons I like Detroit as the dark horse in this division is because Cleveland has declined and Kansas City has done nothing to take the next step. They had a 10 fWAR player on their roster last year! Is Bobby Witt going to turn into Mike Trout in another decade? Sitting on the outside of the playoffs for the rest of his career? Kansas City is a funny park in that it greatly suppresses power, but enhances run scoring. I conservatively have Ragans barely above five strikeouts here and see him as a marginal DFS choice for the price. I don’t see much value in exposure to either side of the Bibee/Royals matchup and have the Royals as small to marginal favorites here, which is exactly what they are.
Mets @ Astros
The Mets signed Clay Holmes this offseason with the intention of converting him from the bullpen. Last week, he was named the Opening Day starter. While this would probably have been Sean Manaea if he were healthy, make no mistake. Holmes has earned it this spring. He struck out 23 of the 81 batters he faced. His new kick-change all the rage. It’s a nasty pitch for a guy who didn’t throw anything but sinkers and sliders last year. While spring is a different animal than regular season and Holmes did walk 11.1% with a much reduced 43.9 GB%, David Sterns and friends have to feel great about this. Holmes is fully built up to a full starter’s workload on a per game basis, though I imagine they’ll look to keep his innings reasonable later in the year.
It's difficult to know how Holmes’s platoon splits will play with the change, but that’s not going to be much of a factor against a Houston lineup that projects just one LHB against RHP. We may not see much of the change. Loosing Tucker and Bregman, even with the addition of Walker and Houston possibly the perfect for Paredes’s pull tendencies, is a net downgrade for the Houston lineup. The Mets should have a fine defense with Siri and Lindor elite up the middle and Alonso the only real albatross with Marte and Winker expected to mostly DH. The Mets pen will live and die with Diaz, though if Garrett and Nunez can add a portion of what they did in the early part of the season last year, it could be really good.
Opp wRC+: 110 (19.2 K% - Tucker & Bregman out, Paredes & Walker in)
DEF: 5/14
B30: 8 – 3.92 – 3.96 – 3.8
BSR: -3
Framber Valdez posted a 12.4 K-BB% over the first three months of the season and a 21.3 K-BB% after that, his strikeout rate rising 8.7 points. His ground ball rate sustained at 60% in either half. The key being an increase in curveball usage, a pitch he was throwing just as often as his sinker during the summer months. It’s his best graded pitch (62 PB, 120 ST+) and only makes a ton of sense with a 39.8 Whiff%. Valdez walked 10 of the 68 batters he faced in preseason, but that curveball is the key.
While batters from either side of the plate were below a .300 wOBA and xwOBA against Valez last season, LHBs exceeded RHBs by 30 points of wOBA, while it went the opposite way by 50 points in terms of xwOBA. Simply put, if he’s sustaining a 20 K-BB% throughout the season with that ground ball rate, he’s a Cy Young candidate, rather than the league average pitcher he was in the first half. The Mets were great against LHP last year and add Soto, who hits LHP well. There may be some holes at the very bottom of the lineup, but this is going to be a tough one for Valdez to negotiate. Houston should have a solid pen with Hader at the top, followed by Abreu, though it becomes questionable afterwards.
Opp wRC+: 118 (Add Soto to an already great LU v LHP)
DEF: 4/7
B30: 13 – 3.99 – 4.12 – 3.0
BSR: -2
I have this game close to even, which doesn’t leave me as much room as I’d like (Mets +112) for Opening Day. It would probably be a half unit play once we had a feel for the season. I’ve been calling for the decline of the Astros for the last two years, but I really think this is the year it starts to show. With talent continuously aging or disappearing and little coming up behind it, the window must be closing and the organization seems to want to blame analytics for the cheating scandal, while forgetting where it got them for the last decade. Holmes isn’t Valdez, but the Mets gave a much better lineup and potentially better pen, which makes up for home field edge. I also think Holmes has the potential to be a steal for $6K on DraftKings, though this is certainly not an offense that strikes out a lot.
Giants @ Reds
Logan Webb is somewhat the right-handed Framber Valdez of the National League. He throws a ton of innings and keeps the ball on the ground. Since striking out 26.5% of batters in 2021, Webb has held steady around 21.3% over the last three seasons. The problems occur when opponents infrequently elevate the ball. Webb allowed a 46.2 HardHit% last year, resulting in just 7% Barrels/BBE, due to the ground balls. He ran a 3.47 ERA a run below his 4.31 xERA because of a great park and defense and does help himself by keeping his walk rate around six percent. While I hate this park for him, this was not a good lineup last year and I don’t see how Cincinnati has improved it at all this year. A lot of young players are going to have to eventually take that next step.
Patrick Bailey is one of the very few game changing defenders in the game, while Chapman remains elite at third base. The Giants are otherwise average or worse everywhere else. Camilo Doval has regressed (gone backwards). With Ryan Walker closing games, this is one of the worst projected pens in the league, but with ERA/FIP projections below four, which makes little sense. It’s not like Webb utilizes his bullpen much anyway.
Opp wRC+: 89 (24.7 K% - big offseason imports were Gavin Lux and Austin Hays)
DEF: -4/20 (this is actually all Bailey and Chapman)
B30: 23 – 3.91 – 3.94 – 2.2
BSR: 5
I’m going to tell you that Hunter Greene’s 20.9 K-BB% in 2023 declined to 18.3% last year and that it was still a breakout season. That is because Greene cut his barrel rate in half (5.2%) and dropped his hard hit rate by 10 points (32%). He also increased his K-BB to 21.4% in July and 27.4% in August before missing almost all of September. The pitches are elite (17” iVB with a 99 mph fastball, slider with a 39 Whiff%). Pitch modeling is not in agreement on that slider though (49 PB, 124 ST+). The command and decisions are improving. I have some Cy Young shares of Greene at 30-1, despite hating this park.
The Giants are more of an average offense with the addition of Adames and loss of Conforto. It’s a net upgrade. The Reds benefit defensively from the acquisition of Trevino, but the bullpen no longer has Cruz and a disappointing Diaz will start on the IL. This could be one of the worst pens in the league.
Opp wRC+: 93 (Adames the major addition w/ Lee back, Conforto gone)
DEF: -16/8
B30: 26 – 4.50 – 4.46 – 1.5
BSR: 8
As much as I like Greene, it’s going to be difficult to roster him this year at high prices in this park. However, he is just $7.4K on DraftKings. With he and Holmes, you can do whatever you want offensively. This is a matchup he should be able to handle. That said, they’re also facing a pretty damn good pitcher who keeps the ball on the ground. Some people believe the Reds are going to take a big step forward this season, but Terry Francona can’t play the games. I just don’t see anything special about this group outside Greene and De La Cruz. The one positive for both teams should be improved defense. I think the Giants with their Ace on the mound are still the slightly the better bet here, especially once the Cincinnati bullpen enters the chat. This is another spot where I’d side with the Giants at even money if we were mid-season and I don’t hate a live bet once Greene exits if close, but I’m not willing to bet against Greene here.
Braves @ Padres
Chris Sale exceeded 158 innings for the first time since 2017 last year. In fact he hadn’t even totaled that many innings combined since 2020. And not only did he compile those innings, he did so in dominant fashion, running up the second best fWAR total of his career (6.4). Unfortunately, he did go down at the worst possible time in September/October, throwing his last pitch of the season on 9/19. Sale posted a 26.5 K-BB%, his best mark since 2018 and all estimators were within half a run of his 2.38 ERA. Every pitch graded above 55 via PitchingBot and Stuff+ loved the slider (118). A healthy Sale should contend for a Cy Young once again.
The Padres did virtually nothing to help the lineup this offseason, but did lose Jurickson Profar. Tatis and Machado are the only two in the projected lineup who were above average (100 wRC+) against LHP last year and former just barely (105). Still, they did not strike out a lot. The Braves picked up Profar, but the defense still projects below average. Expect the Atlanta bullpen to continue to be a strength.
Opp wRC+: 96 (17.2 K%)
DEF: -3/-8
B30: 6 – 3.86 – 3.89 – 3.9
BSR: 3
I neglected to mention that I had Michael King Cy Young shares at 50 to 1 when he came out of April with a 5.00 ERA and 11.7 K-BB%. However, he didn’t post an ERA above 3.00 (and only that in May) or K-BB less than 17.8% in any month of the season after that. He deserves this Opening Day start. Anybody thinking of a Yankee rotation with Clay Holmes and Michael King in it right now? His season estimators all wound up around three and a half, but King was also a master contact manager (6.2% Barrels/BBE, 30.3 HardHit%). Despite a true standout offering, all of King’s pitches exceeded a 50 PitchingBot grade, though only the slider (109) merited a Stuff+ grade above 100. King held RHBs below a .280 wOBA and xwOBA with LHBs around .300.
I remember when the Atlanta offense unexpectedly broke out a few years back and I couldn’t understand why a lineup that had Ozuna and D’arnaud in the heart of it was good. Yet, they stayed that way for several years. Until posting a teamwide 96 wRC+ against RHP last season, mostly centered around major injuries and the collapse of Matt Olson. I expect a bounce back this year. Even if they’re not great once again, this offense should at least be good. Sean Murphy (another crasher in 2024) begins the season on the IL, but will be replaced by top prospect Drake Baldwin, which I don’t see as much of a negative. Arraez is a terrible defender, Merrill is an elite one and everyone else was in between for the Padres last year. I can’t remember the last time the Padres did not have an elite bullpen, but here we are.
Opp wRC+: 96 (23.9 K% - added Profar with no significant losses)
DEF: 0/10
B30: 16 – 4.01 – 4.21 – 2.8
BSR: -4
Neither one of these pitchers are in high upside spots, but it is a favorable park. Sale should be able to handle this San Diego lineup, but is one of the most expensive pitchers on the board. King, in a worse spot, is still underpriced on DraftKings ($8K). I actually project King for half a strikeout more than Sale (6 to 5.5). I have this game around even. The Padres are +110 on DraftKings, which is not enough to be actionable. The good news is that DraftKings now has props up so I’ll be going back through games already covered to see if anything pops.
Angels @ White Sox
Yusei Kikuchi is a nice, often undervalued pickup, but I fear he falls short of Opening Day material on most rosters. This isn’t most rosters. Kikuchi had a 4.04 ERA in 2024, but a 3.70 xERA (9.7% Barrels/BBE) was his only estimator reaching three and a half. With a 22 K-BB%, Los Angeles is probably the worst west coast city for his long ball proclivities. The Astros changed his pitch usage (more sliders, fewer curveballs), the result being a 5.8 point increase in K-BB% and .100 point reduction in BABIP. The latter, of course, not sustainable. The curve and slider graded similarly with the slider four points better by Stuff+, the curve six points superior via PitchingBot. They even have a similar whiff rate. Batters slugged .100 points higher against the curve, though the xwOBA against it was .046 points less than the slider. He's struck out 16 of 55 batters this spring sticking with the slider.
The White Sox did more jettisoning than importing this winter and they’ll probably continue to ship out anything that shows life for prospects for the next couple of years. This is a terrible situation. RHBs were within five points of a .300 wOBA and xwOBA against Kikuchi last year, while LHBs had a .340 xwOBA, but .279 xwOBA. Benintendi projects as the only LHB here anyway. The Angels at least tried to improve the team somewhat this year, but will still have a terrible defense and bottom half bullpen, though even that is a likely improvement over last year.
Opp wRC+: 74 (24.2 K%)
DEF: -25/-10
B30: 21 – 4.19 – 4.23 – 2.5
BSR: -2
I guess Sean Burke is as good as anybody here for the White Sox. Twenty-five years old. Made three starts, pitched 19 innings for the big league club last year. Struck out 22 of 76 with seven walks and foru barrels. Quality work. The third round pick in 2021 projects estimators and an ERA above four and a half. He has posted strikeout rates around 30% everywhere he’s traveled throughout the minors, but also double digit walk rates. Fastball, slider, curveball with overall average pitch modeling grades, but only the fastball grading well above average. His velocity was down this spring, as was the iVB on that fastball by an inch or so. He averaged 95 mph last season and was below 94 in his last preseason start.
Jorge Soler was the big offensive import this offseason, though I guess you can count Mike Trout and Yoan Moncada if they somehow manage to stay healthy. If so, this could be a near average lineup. If not, it will be another disaster of a season. Not only can the White Sox not hit, they can’t field and the bullpen is the only one in the majors projected for negative fWAR.
Opp wRC+: 89 (24.2 K%)
DEF: -34/-18
B30: 30 – 4.56 – 4.52 - -0.2
BSR: -10
The Angels should be moderate favorites here, as they are. Any DFS exposure should come on their side too. Kikuchi is another strong, affordable pitching option. Otherwise, the less said here, the better. Pay attention to the weather here.
Pirates @ Marlins
Paul Skenes posted a 28.6 K-BB% over 133 innings in his rookie season and struck out 23 of 88 batters this spring. Most of his estimators sat around two and a half with none reaching three, while allowing just 5.2% Barrels/BBE last year. I’m not sure his pitches are being classified entirely correctly by Statcast or pitch modeling, but it’s all good. The only surprise is that he doesn’t have a 60 grade pitch via PitchingBot. Skenes stiflied left and righthanded batters alike with a wOBA and xwOBA below .260. What’s left to say?
The Marlins are just throwing post-hype prospects at the wall to seeing if anything sticks. This should be one of the worst offenses in the league. Casual fans may not recognize a single name in it. I barely do. MLB.com projects something called a Wagaman to hit cleanup. Pittsburgh has an awful defense, but middling pen. David Bednar went from potentially elite closer to losing the job last year.
Opp wRC+: 91
DEF: -14/-17
B30: 17 – 4.12 – 4.11 – 2.8
BSR: -1
Sandy Alcantara returns from Tommy John Surgery, but looked the same as ever this spring. His strikeout rate has sat between 19.8% and 24% each of the four previous years, exceeding a 50% ground ball rate in each of the last three. This allows him to allow hard contact at an average rate, yet still keep the barrels down. Fastball, sinker, slider, change all thrown between 20 and 30%. Projection systems almost universally have him between 3.50 and 3.75. Alcantara is auditioning for a new team.
Pittsburgh did even less to support their young pitching staff this winter than the Royals did for Witt. At least Kansas City made the postseason last year. This offense did not improve last season, as hoped. They have some marginal position player prospects, but expectations should not be lofty. Hey, look at that. The Marlins might have a defense. They had a quality bullpen last year and performed well even after trading everyone away, but that does not project to carry over.
Opp wRC+: 83 (24.3 K%)
DEF: -28/7
B30: 27 – 4.24 – 4.29 – 1.4
BSR: 1
There’s a chance that Skenes is already the best pitcher in the league (he’s the most expensive pitcher on the board), while we can probably expect business as usual from Alcantara except for the workload. Skenes has the better matchup and more upside, though Alcantara only costs $7.7K on DraftKings in a good matchup as well. I assume people will pay down for their pitching and up for their offense with so many quality, affordable pitchers on this Opening Day slate. Both pitchers should be able to shut down the opposing offense. It may depend on which bullpen is worse. With their defensive edge, I don’t have the Marlins as large a dog as the line suggests (+130), but I don’t find it actionable in this spot either.
Twins @ Cardinals
Pablo Lopez posted almost the same xFIP and SIERA, just below three and a half, in 2023 and 2024, but his ERA rose half a run (4.08) and he accumulated 1.4 less fWAR. The K-BB dropped from 23.2% to 20.3%, which was still pretty damn good, and barrels increased from 6.3% to 8.2%. The sweeper went from a .210 wOBA (.205 xwOBA) to .311 (.259) despite a similar whiff rate. It was very difficult to pinpoint the issue. All of his pitches remained elite by PitchingBot standards, though closer to average via Stuff+. Regardless, his estimators were about half a run better than actual results in both seasons.
The Cardinals lost Goldschmidt to free agency, which may have been addition by subtraction at this point in his career, but they didn’t actually add anything. It’s a mostly home grown lineup, but without a lot of upside, while Arenado and Contreras are well into their 30s now. This team may need to gut and completely rebuild. The Minnesota defense projects to be pretty awful, but the bullpen, led by Duran and Jax might be the best in the league.
Opp wRC+: 101
DEF: 2/-16
B30: 1 – 3.81 – 3.79 – 5.1
BSR: 5
Sonny Gray posted the best K-BB of his career last year (24.4%). He had never previously hit 20%. Yet he had a 3.84 ERA that was more than half a run above all of his estimators except one and that one is why I’m concerned. Gray had a 3.67 xERA, which isn’t terrible, but he allowed a 40% hard hit rate from the start of June on, which is in line with a half mph velocity drop. Not a huge deal in itself, but he’s been down nearly two mph this spring. Veteran pitcher ramping up. Sure, except for the fact that he’s actually expressed some concern about it after allowing eight home runs in 14.1 innings. While Gray remained effective against RHBs, but LHBs had a .331 wOBA against him (.317 xwOBA).
The Twins have a fairly balanced lineup, but do have some power from the left-hand side. The lineup hasn’t changed much, if at all, from last season, but it didn’t need to. That part of the team was fine. Arenado is the only position player that was strong defensively for St Lous last year and the bullpen projects marginally with little behind Helsley, who’s likely a trade candidate this summer.
Opp wRC+: 107 (Kepler largest subtraction)
DEF: 15/-2
B30: 22 – 3.97 – 4.10 – 2.4
BSR: -3
St Louis has played more hitter friendly in recent seasons, though I’d imagine it’s still a pitcher friendly park at this time of year. Despite that, I don’t think a lot of daily fantasy players will be attacked Sonny Gray, but we’re talking about some cheap LH platoon bats against a power prone pitcher with declining velocity. Lopez is fine here, but other pitchers offer more value. I was hoping to get Minnesota at even money or better, but that’s not the case.
Tigers @ Dodgers
Blake Snell is the 2024 American League Cy Young winner. He dominated last year (25.6 K-BB%, 33.9 HardHit%). He’s dominated this spring (31.1%). What else is there to say?
The Dodgers will run out virtually the same lineup they did last year against LHP. It’s a tough spot for Skubal regardless, but there’s something going on with Mookie Betts. He’s expected to play as of now, but he’s lost a lot of weight with a digestive ailment he still doesn’t appear to have under control. While the pen is ranked 18th, I believe it and the defense to be positives for Detroit this year. There might not be a stud at the top of the bullpen, but there are plenty of capable arms.
Opp wRC+: 121 (19.8 K%)
DEF: 14/8
B30: 18 – 3.88 – 3.92 – 2.6
BSR: 2
It’s taken me a long time to buy into a pitcher who walks as many as Blake Snell does, being as good as he is, but here we are. Snell struggled with injuries with more than one stint on the IL in his only year in San Francisco, but when he finally became healthy, Snell dominated with a 31.2 K-BB% over his last 11 starts. And that’s with a double digit walk rate. He allowed four barrels with a 25.7 HardHit% over that span. Sure, walking three or four guys per game works when everything else is a strikeout or weak contact. Snell only has 4.2 recorded innings against major league competition this spring, but also pitched in a game in Japan that has not been recorded or added to his spring stats. While Snell’s worst PitchingBot grade last year was 59 (fastball), Stuff+ only sees the curveball above average (109).
Snell kept batters from either side of the plate below a .260 wOBA and xwOBA for the entire season, so it really doesn’t matter which side the Tigers attack him from. The only offensive import for Detroit, Gleyber Torres, should make the lineup more formidable against LHP, but that still gets Kerry Carpenter out of the lineup. The Dodger pen projects as one of the best in the league and it ought to be after what they paid for it. The defense…not so much.
Opp wRC+: 88 (24.6 K%, 8.5 HR/FB)
DEF: -3/-14
B30: 4 – 3.87 – 3.96 – 4.0
BSR: 2
I expected to be on the Detroit side of this affair because I expected a much larger line. This is very reasonably priced though. The only real edge here (when looking at bullpen ERA/FIP projections instead of rank) is offense and they’ll be facing a pitcher who neutralizes lefties with a potentially hindered Mookie Betts. This will be a fun game to watch, but I likely won’t have a side.
Cubs @ Diamondbacks
Justin Steele already has a regular season start under his belt this year, but it was not a good one. It probably shouldn’t have counted. We know why MLB plays these games in Japan, even if the pitchers aren’t ready. Steele was down more than half a mph. Two of the 17 batters he faced homered, although he did strikeout five with just one walk. Despite only making 24 starts in an injury plagued season following his breakout, Steele still pitched well enough to earn a 2.74 xERA (4.2% Barrels/BBE, 33.2 HardHit%), though that was a full run below his SIERA (17.6 K-BB%).
Swapping Walker for Naylor shouldn’t have much of a negative effect on Arizona, but it may hurt their standing against LHP. Still, expect this to be a quality lineup without a lot of strikeouts. PCA and Swanson are elite defenders and Hoerner is pretty damn good too. The Cubs project a middle of the league bullpen led by Ryan Pressly. Carroll may be the best base runner in the league.
Opp wRC+: 119 (20.3 K%)
DEF: 15/34
B30: 20 – 3.90 – 3.97 – 2.5
BSR: 14
With a dip in velocity early on, Zac Gallen’s K-BB dropped four points to 16.4% last year, while maintaining a hard hit rate above 40%, but five points lower than 2023. In the end, his 3.65 ERA mostly matched up with estimators, which wasn’t far off his previous season numbers. Gallen is once again down more than a mph this spring, but we can’t take that to mean anything until the season starts. While Gallen had a small reverse split last year, batters from either side of the plate were right around .300. I’m not sure what we’re looking at here. Aside from the curve and changeup on PitchingBot, his pitch modeling was below average.
Tucker is certainly an offensive upgrade over Bellinger at this point and PCA could add another element to the offense if his second half performance was real. This should not be an easy matchup for Gallen, though he does have an elite defense behind him, along with a strong bullpen led by Martinez and Puk.
Opp wRC+: 102
DEF: 27/20
B30: 10 – 3.86 – 3.94 – 3.3
BSR: 3
It remains to be seen if either pitcher can return to their 2023 form. Gallen has the longer track record, but Steele may only need to bounce back from an injury filled season and did show flashes of his previous season brilliance at times. None the less, this is a nearly evenly matched affair with the Diamondbacks perhaps having small edges in bullpen and base running. My projected line is in agreement with the actual one.
Athletics @ Mariners
While it wasn’t a peak Luis Severino season, his rebound in 2024 was enough to solicit 3/$60 out of the stingy A’s. Severino went from being a ground ball machine early in the season (52.5% first 13 starts) to a much sexier 20.3 K-BB% over his last 10. There was also a middle part of the season, during which he struggled (42.4 GB%, 10.3 K-BB%). Overall, Severino’s 3.91 ERA was within one-third of a run of all estimators, but which version of Severino will the A’s get, if any of the ones that showed their face last year. None of them were terrible, but the last would be preferrable. Pitch modeling LOVED the sweeper (58 PB, 145 ST+), which Severino threw 30.9% of the time over his last seven starts (24.2% season). It seems important to note that Severino had a 60 point full season split last year and that actually declined to a .390 for LHBs over those last 10 starts.
The only major difference for the Seattle offense from last season is that Randy Arozarena will be there for the full year. Seven in the projected lineup still have a strikeout rate above 25% against RHP last year and this is the best park to pitch in for more reasons than dimensions or marine layer, as was discussed in the Parks & Weather piece last week. The A’s will still have an awful defense and the bullpen is Mason Miller (2.0 fWAR proj, rest of pen -0.1).
Opp wRC+: 107 (27.3 K%)
DEF: -41/-14
B30: 25 – 4.11 – 4.21 – 1.9
BSR: -2
Maybe I should start doing this for all Seattle pitchers this year because if you were going to build a perfect park for pitchers…
Logan Gilbert @ Home: 25.9 K-BB%, 40 GB%, 31.7 HardHit% (FG, not Statcast)
Logan Gilbert @ Away: 19.9 K-BB%, 48.9 GB%, 33.7 HardHit%
Gilbert is a stud anyway you slice it, but at home, he’s a top three to five pitcher in the league. As long as the park keeps doing it’s thing, he should be able to do his while healthy. I can’t figure out how to split pitch usage by Home/Road, but that may tell us something too. It’s just important to realize how good he is at home. Overall, all of his PB grades are no lower than 57, while Stuff+ has a bit more variance, but still loves the splitter (122).
The A’s continue to have a dangerous, yet volatile lineup with no real changes in the upper half. Having two Max Muncys (Munci?) running through my spreadsheets is going to be fun though. Why didn’t I just set things up using player IDs? The Seattle defense is mostly Raleight and J-Rod. Most others grade quite poorly. The bullpen generally finds a way to be good and now we know part of that is the park.
Opp wRC+: 99 (25.2 K%)
DEF: -13/3
B30: 15 – 3.79 – 3.94 – 2.9
BSR: -4
While the A’s may be a dangerous team here, the Mariners still have just about every edge in this game. They should be the 60% favorites they are. If it matters to anyone, I have Gilbert projected as a top three strikeout arm on Thursday (around seven).
Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for any additional information.
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented/projected lineup(Roster Resource) Fielding Run Value (Statcast)
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
BSR: Projected Lineup Base Running Runs
Add comment
Comments