On October 16th of last year, Walker Buehler threw just four innings in an LCS game against the Mets, but only allowed three hits, while striking out six without a run. Casual fans probably accept that as a standard performance from an All Star pitcher in a big spot. Only Buehler hasn't been anything close to an All Star in quite a while. After the dreaded Tommy John, he came back to post his worst season ever in 2024 with a 5.38 ERA and only marginally superior 4.78 xERA. At 16.7 inches of vertical break (iVB) and 95 mph, his fastball was merely average. His 10.2 K-BB% was the lowest margin of his career by quite a bit and well below league average.
However, on this day, Buehler magically averaged 20.8 iVB. Yet, this was unlikely a case of a pitcher magically finding his stuff again. Something else was at play here.
Generally, when we think of wind, the first park that comes to mind is Wrigley field with the largest effect of that wind on home runs and runs. And in the macro, that's very fair, but we now know there is a significant micro effect too, potentially on every pitch and that has become my obsession this off-season.
Aside from temperature and dimensions, we now may know more about why some parks play more pitcher friendly than you might expect. This article where I introduce you to headwinds and tailwinds.
With a tailwind, as one might suspect, the wind is at a pitcher's back and may speed up a pitch. But it also may help it sink and take away break, not always a benefit to a certain type of pitcher or certain pitches.
With a headwind, sure the pitcher is in danger of more batted balls in the air turning into home runs with the wind working against him and it may also slow down his pitch, but as we saw with Buehler that day and others before him, under the right conditions in the right parks, it aids in iVB (ball looks like it's rising) and increases break.
While hitters see their advantage when they hit the ball in the air on these days, pitchers can take back that edge in pitch selection with a good idea of how the wind will effect those pitches. Some parks are known to increase the effects more than others.
Unsurprisingly, Citi Field is near the top of the list in this effect, especially early and later in the season when the weather is more harsh, but so is Yankee Stadium, just a few minutes away. If you ever wondered why the park in the Bronx is so home run friendly, but run neutral or even negative in some seasons, this might be a big clue why. A headwind, you throw more elevated four-seam fastballs. A tailwind, you throw more sinkers and keep the ball down.
Another park with a significant effect is Safeco. We think of the marine layer reducing offense in this park initially, but ever wonder why pitchers who are fastball heavy like Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo are so successful at home and most Seattle pitchers have such significant home/road splits? Think about wind effect at Safeco. It's not the only reason, but it's a reason. Wrigley and Oracle park are two more parks whose pitches are strongly effected by wind.
I was hoping to find someplace that ranked parks by iVB induced, but had no success. If anyone knows of such rankings or even better, where we can find head or tail wind information pre-game, please reach out. There's so much baseball content out there right now that I easily could have missed it.
Part two will cover two park changes and an additional dimensional change for the 2025 season.
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