And just like that, the 2025 MLB season is upon us. A lot has happened, baseball and real world, since the last words written here five months ago. I'll try to keep the politics out of this space for baseball, but it's scary and uncertain times we live in all of a sudden.
On the field, two teams have changed venues, one planned, one not, while one venue itself has changed. After not having any big ballpark remodeling projects or moves for the first time in a long time last year, I suppose we were due for this chaos. I plan on doing something covering park factors and weathers before Opening Day (the real one, not the two spring training games that count in the Tokyo Dome this week).
As far as those two games go, we have very little baseball data on the Tokyo Dome, the last MLB games played there in 2019.
Top of the head quick scouting reports...
Shota Imanaga throws high, but not hard. His velocity has been down significantly this spring. He was nearly untouchable with the wind blowing in at Wrigley early in the year and much more average once it started going in the other direction. The biggest change in the lineup behind him is Kyle Tucker in for Cody Bellinger and that's a tremendous upgrade.
Yoshi Yama throws hard, but not high. His fastball was a problem at times, getting hit hard lower in the zone. His secondary stuff is so strong though that he was still able to dominate when he was healthy. The Dodgers behind him are a bit older. Betts and Freeman started showing the first signs of aging last year, but it's still one of the best lineups in baseball.
Rori Sasaki hasn't impressed this spring (we may be expecting too much) and Justin Steele struggled through injuries last season, while showing flashes of his previous breakout when healthy. Don't expect any of these four pitchers to go deep mid-March.
Now with the news that Betts will miss both games due to an illness that's reportedly cost him 15 pounds, I'd lean Cubs in Game Two as a dog of +120 or better. Not a play I am officially making. Still just top of the head. Steele will have an advantage facing numerous Dodger lefties (who hit LHP well though) with Betts out.
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Of course, the analysis will be much more detailed in a week and a half, but lets talk about what that's going to look like this year. After putting in 10 hour or even more days more often than not last year and putting most of the profits back into the website (as you can see, the website has a real name now), more real world responsibilities have created themselves, which means 10 hours will have to be substantially cut down and more frequent absences. I apologize, but it's hard to justify spending so much time on a venture that doesn't generate income when many more important things now demand attention.
Even if I'm not going to be extensive on every single game or play, I'll still be tracking on Action Network (follow RockyJade). Last season did end well, finishing up 10.75 units or +16.29 units from July 25th on after struggling to break even through the first two thirds of the season. I don't claim to be a professional at this. Don't blindly follow picks. I see the value in what I do as the information provided. Interpret it your own way.
I tend to refrain from futures these days because it ties up too much capital for too long, generally yielding moderate results for the most part. I used one free bet on Draftkings to parlay MVPs for Juan Soto and Gunnar Henderson at +5425. The latter suffered an injury the day after the wager was placed, which is another reason not to only play unders early in March. The other was a parlay for the Orioles, Diamondbacks, Rangers and Tigers to each win at least 80 games (+208). This was also placed using an expiring free bet from the Superbowl on FanDuel. Since then, Grayson Rodriguez and about half the Texas rotation have gone down (deGrom may be the last one standing), reinforcing the theory mentioned above about unders if you're betting early win totals.
Lastly for today, for reasons you probably understand if you've been up on current events, I'll be posting most of my baseball content on bsky.app with the same handle as Twitter (@FreelanceBBall). If you don't have access or don't want to sign up for something new, just bookmark the site and check back often for updates.
Next and maybe last up before the start of the season proper, will be a post on park factors and weather.
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