We have baseball on Wednesday and Game Five is a living, breathing thing now partially because Dave Roberts did not waver from his commitment to low leverage pitchers, essentially punting Game Four, even though they had a lead at some point, to put his team in a better position for the last three games (if necessary).
As far as the pitching matchup goes, it's a repeat of Game One with Jack Flaherty and Gerrit Cole both making their fifth post-season start. I won't repeat the information posted for that game in order to keep this readable, but will update for the results of that game and some aftermath, along with the weather (67 degrees, wind 8 mph out towards the left-field pole), essentially maintaining the neutral run environment, and umpire (Mark Ripperger is also neutral).
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented/projected lineup(Roster Resource) Fielding Run Value
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average this post-season (this is new)
BSR: Projected Lineup Base Running Runs
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Dodgers @ Yankees
Jack Flaherty opened the World Series a man on fire, from his very first pitch at 96.4 mph, more than three mph harder than his first pitch in any of his other three post-season starts. He struck out six, the same amount of batters he did in his first start against the Mets in the NLCS, but unlike that start, this wasn’t a pitcher who was getting hit hard, yet keeping the Mets off the board. Despite allowing two runs in this game, Flaherty generated 19 swings and misses, 12 of them on a curveball that was up 1.8 mph on average. While he only generated three fastball whiffs, he got another 10 called FB strikes. Flaherty did a solid job of avoiding the middle of the plate and while he did allow a 40% HardHit rate, only three of the six batted balls reaching a 95 mph EV were in the air. The velocity spike did not last for the fastball (only +0.3 mph for the entire game vs season average), but this was certainly the best version of Flaherty we’ve seen in a long time, both by surface results and underlying indicators.
Until, he suffered a hamstring injury in the fifth. Now, we have a number of questions regarding Flaherty’s health…AGAIN. He’s suffered each time he’s had to pitch on regular rest and gained whenever he’s had extended rest (at least velocity wise) this post-season. Will we see the same pattern emerge here and how much of an issue, if any, is that hamstring? These questions are stopping me from playing the Dodgers. Everything being equal, going purely by the numbers, I show some value on the visiting side, but the Jeckyll & Hyde nature of Flaherty this post-season disrupts everything. At least pre-game.
Opp wRC+: 120 (116 Home, 110 Post-Season)
DEF: -4/-18
B30: 4.58 (4.59 FIP/4.94 xFIP/4.23 SIERA)
BSR: -9
Gerrit Cole has struck out four batters in each and every one of his…four post-season starts. Against the Dodgers, Cole was up 0.8 mph on average from his season velocity, aligned with his first two post-season starts. He generated just nine whiffs on 88 pitches 45 of which were fastballs, 26 of those swung on and only four missed, but with six called strikes. Cole threw no other pitch more than 13 times. Cole did not do a great job of avoiding the meatball zone and thus, 49 of his pitches were swung at. However, only five of his 18 batted balls were classified as HardHit with only three of those in the air (two fastballs and a slider).
Opp wRC+: 117 (114 Road, 117 PS)
DEF: 6/17
B30: 4.02 (3.77/4.20/4.09)
BSR: 3
The thing to realize in these bullpen numbers is that the Dodgers have not been reluctant to utilize their low leverage relievers when behind, prioritizing not allowing lineups to see the same relievers multiple times over win expectancy when it’s not in their favor. They’ve also been able to utilize lower leverage relievers in several blowouts. Both teams should have everyone they want available tonight. Even Luke Weaver only threw 21 pitches.
Perhaps the best course of action is to see what Flaherty looks like early and with some luck, one side or the other will still have some value at that point.
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