Tuesday 10/29 WS GM 4 Thoughts & Analysis

Depending upon how Game Three goes, this could very well be the last baseball game of the season. We do not have a Dodgers starter yet, which likely means another bullpen game against Luis Gil. The early weather report is a few degrees warmer, but potentially stronger winds, perhaps blowing out. That's speculative, but one thing that isn't is the pitcher friendly nature of Doug Eddings. 

LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented/projected lineup(Roster Resource) Fielding Run Value
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average this post-season (this is new)
BSR: Projected Lineup Base Running Runs

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Dodgers @ Yankees

I’ve been using Landon Knack as a place holder for these bullpen games and he has pitched in two of them, but just a total of three innings, retiring only nine of the 18 batter’s he’s faced. If the Dodgers win on Monday night, I could see him being a larger part of this game. If not, I could see him not being involved at all. He’s shown no reason that he deserves to be this month.

The last bullpen game for the Dodgers started with Michael Kopech and went much better than the one before that started with Ryan Brazier. The first one, against the Padres, was also started by Brasier. He’s one of five relievers on this World Series roster for the Dodgers who has thrown at least seven innings this post-season. The others being Anthony Banda and Kopech (each exactly seven innings as well) and Brent Honeywell (7.2), along with Blake Treinan (10).

Honeywell has only seen this much action because a lot of the Dodgers’ games have been blowouts, one way or the other. With a 0.0 K-BB% (same as Knack), I can’t believe Honeywell’s a guy that Dave Roberts is looking for spots for. Treinan’s 26.7 K-BB% this post-season more than doubles all of the rest of this group except for Banda (18.8), but is also unlikely to be a guy they’d probably want to go to for different reasons. He threw a lot of pitches in the first two games. If not so much for fatigue, then for the fact that Roberts probably shouldn’t want the Yankees to see him so often, Treinan will probably be a “break glass if needed” arm in Game Four.

Banda and Kopech (10.3%) are both guys we could see cover up to four innings combined. Ben Casparius (11.8%), Brusdar Graterol (1 IP) and Alex Vesia (33.3%) are all more likely than not to make appearances as well, depending on how Game Three goes.

Opp wRC+: 120 (assuming RHP, 117 Home, 103 Post-Season)
DEF: -4/-18
B30: 4.27 (4.06 FIP/4.72 xFIP/4.04 SIERA)
BSR: -10 (assuming same lineup again)

A three week layoff for Luis Gil before his first and only post—season start, allowing four home runs to the Pirates in his final outing of the season, driving his ERA up to exactly 3.50, still at least one-third of a run below all estimators and more than half a run below everything except his xERA (3.83). Gil struck out a lot of batters (26.8%), but also walked far too many (12.1%) with not a lot of hard contact (37.4%), but too much of it in barrels (9.5%). He had just a 21.7 K% over his last four starts.

Gil had a 34 point wOBA split and 48 point xwOBA one, which could go either way against a well-balanced Dodger lineup. He produced an impressive 110 Stuff+, but the control problems dropped him to a 100 Pitching+. PitchingBot grades ranged from 49 to 53 (4.23 Bot ERA) on all three of his pitches.

It’s been another 10 days since his start in Cleveland, lasting exactly twice through the order and four innings. It was quite shaky, striking out three and walking as many. Gil threw 79 pitches in that game, 44 of them fastballs, 21 changeups and 14 sliders. The layoff had him down -0.4 mph from his season average velocity, but he did generate 10 whiffs, six of them on the fastball that was almost entirely elevated. Of his 12 batted balls, only two of them reached a 95 mph EV, both fly balls. One fastball, one changeup.

Opp wRC+: 117 (114 Road, 119 Post-Season)
DEF: 6/14
B30: 4.25 (4.03 FIP/4.41 xFIP/4.32 SIERA)
BSR: 3

You can generally say that any baseball game has a wide range of potential outcomes, but magnify that significantly here. The Game Three results (which hasn’t even started yet), should narrow things down a bit, but right now, we have no idea who to expect out of the Dodger bullpen or for how long. Gil is a volatile pitcher to start with. If he’s not sharp, the Dodgers can really exploit him and turn it into another post-season blowout. He’ll probably have a short leash, even if the Yankees are down 2-1, but in an elimination game, erratic behavior may not allow him to escape the first inning. However, if Gil is on, he might have the best chance of any Yankee pitcher to shut this Dodger lineup down couple of times through the order.

I have a speculative line with the Yankees barely north of even for the full game and first five. I also have a total around 10 without regard to weather, but again, that’s as speculative as it gets, considering Gil’s volatility and the lack of knowledge on the other side. Oh, and we haven’t even seen how Ohtani might be affected yet either.

Update: 

A few degrees warmer (around 60), but with a near double digit wind in from right probably has the same effect Monday night weather wise. With the Dodgers making mince meat of the Yankees, it makes it more likely we see some secondary relievers for the Dodgers. 

Here is their reliever usage chart for the series, which doesn't even include Treinan, but Banda and Kopech appear to be guys they're likely to avoid tonight.