Two games in and this series hasn't gone nearly the way I projected. All of the untracked series plays are probably dead except for the Teoscar Hernandez HR leader one. Freddie Freeman is already nearly a lock for MVP, though I shouldn't say that considering all the unforeseen circumstances that have occurred already. Back to Yankee Stadium, where you'd expect cooler weather and a slightly more power friendly environment, though this park plays surprisingly similar to Dodger Stadium outside the short RF porch.
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented/projected lineup(Roster Resource) Fielding Run Value
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average this post-season (this is new)
BSR: Projected Lineup Base Running Runs
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Dodgers @ Yankees
Let’s start by noting that both of these pitchers pitched once in both the Divisional Round and also the LCS. Also, Mark Carlson, the chief crew, leans slightly hitter friendly. Dave Roberts has also said that Shohei Ohtani will play on Monday. Whether it’s at full strength or not, is going to be difficult to project. Maybe he just hits some shorter porch home runs at Yankee Stadium.
While Walker Buehler had shown flashes of competence late in the season, those were mostly against poor offenses (Rockies, Angels). He failed to strike out more batters than he walked against the Braves and Padres in two of his last three starts. Buehler’s 2024 season was nothing short of disastrous. That his 13.1 K-BB% over his last six starts was an improvement on his season rate (10.5%) should be the first indicator, even with a favorable contact profile (6.9% Barrels/BBE, 36 HardHit%). It’s somewhat unfortunate that he allowed 16 home runs on 17 barrels, which nearly matches his 5.54 FIP to a 5.38 ERA with all other estimators being more than half a run, but less than a full run lower. If we’re calling that a positive, we can probably also include that a .380 wOBA against LHBs and .360 against RHBs drops to a .334 and .336 xwOBA respectively. That’s still around 25 points worse than league average. Or basically, a league average hitter batting at Coors. Perhaps the most encouraging vibes come from Buehler’s pitch modeling with PitchingBot grades ranging from 46 to 59, resulting in a 3.95 Bot ERA, along with a 93 Stuff+ that works up to a 100 Pitching+.
Lasting 24 batters in Game Three of the NLDS, you might believe it was a quality outing, especially at only 3.2 pitches per batter. He led with the fastball (33x) and it was only -0.1 off his season average velocity. Buehler did get eight whiffs and another 13 called strikes, but was too much over the middle of the plate, resulting in nine hard hit batted balls (95+ mph EV), only four of which were on the ground. Buehler allowed six runs without a strikeout, but did allow a walk and a home run, while throwing a wild pitch.
Buehler faced fewer batters (18) over just four innings against the Mets, throwing 90 pitches (five per batter). You would think from those numbers that this was a worse outing, but Buehler struck out six with 18 swings and misses, allowing not a single run, despite two walks. He did this despite being down 1.2 mph from his season average velocity, but three more inches of induced vertical break on the pitch and four more inches of horizontal break on his sweeper. How was this so? Let’s go back to a tweet I posted in the Game One article on headwind effects. That plus better command (Buehler only threw one fastball near the center of the plate) resulted in his best outing of the season. He did allow a 44 HardHit%, all of it in the air, three of them on fastballs, but that was only four batted balls in total. Different park, same city for Buehler on Monday. Check the wind direction and speed at Yankee Stadium. His projection is perhaps the most difficult for Game Three. On a pitch modeling note, Buehler’s cutter remained a strong pitch this year (20.8%, 2.4 RV/100, 59 PB grade), a pitch the Yankees were third worst against on a per pitch basis post-trade deadline (-1.71 wFC/C), though that doesn’t account for sample size, which was likely fairly small. Corbin Burnes was the most notorious cutter thrower in the division and many offense are going to suffer against that pitch.
Opp wRC+: 120 (116 Home, 106 Post-Season)
DEF: -4/-18
B30: 4.24 (4.06 FIP/4.40 xFIP/4.34 SIERA)
BSR: -9
Clarke Schmidt was on his way to a breakout season with a 19 K-BB% through 11 starts before hitting the IL at the end of May. He didn’t return until September, posting a 15.1 K-BB% over his final five starts, though with a HardHit rate exceeding 43% in four of the five. None the less, Schmidt’s Stuff+ actually improved to 119 since his return.
On the season, his 2.85 ERA is well below solid estimators ranging from a 3.58 FIP to a 3.92 xFIP. An 80% strand rate was the main reason for that. Batters from the left-hand side had a .305 wOBA and .302 xwOBA against Schmidt this year, which is an improvement from last season, while RHBs had a .275 wOBA, but also a .302 xwOBA. Schmidt’s 115 Stuff+ was up there with the league leaders this year, but with just a 100 Pitching+.
He struck out four of 19 Royals with one walk in an ALDS start, sitting 0.8 mph above his season average velocity on 37 cutters thrown (52%) and 0.2 mph above his season average velocity on 11 sinkers (15%). The remaining pitches were sweepers (15, 21%) and curves (8, 11%). From his 10 whiffs, six came on the cutter with four more (on seven swings) against the sweeper. He basically kept the cutter above the sinker, which was above the sweeper and more concentrated outside against RHBs. Overall, Schmidt lived more around and below the belt than above. The result was three of his eight hard hit batted balls (95+ mph EV) on the ground, but more hard contact (five BBE) than not.
Schmidt threw the same 4.2 innings he threw in the ALDS against the Royals in the ALCS against the Guardians, allowing the same two runs (well, not the SAME two), though striking out just two with as many walks and allowing his first post-season home run. He was up 0.3 mph from his season average velocity on the cutter (25, 32%), but down 0.2 mph on just 12 sinkers (15%). Three of his five swings and misses came on the curveball. Schmidt did not locate as well or attempt to keep the ball as low as he did against the Royals, though just five of his 12 batted balls reached a 95 mph exit velocity and one of those was on the ground. Schmidt’s best pitch is a curveball (18.2%, 1.5 RV/100, 64 PB grade) that may not be as effective against the Dodgers (1.92 wCU/C was second best post-deadline). Schmidt’s cutter (35%, 0.7 RV/100, 56 PB grade) may be the better option (Dodgers -0.03 wFC/C post-deadline). Whatever he chooses, it may be best to lay off his sinker (21%, -0.6 RV/100, 35 PB grade), as the Dodgers smoked those post-deadline (2.26 wFC/C was best in the league by more than a full run).
Opp wRC+: 117 (114 Road, 121 PS)
DEF: 6/17
B30: 4.27 (3.91 FIP/4.77 xFIP/4.05 SIERA)
BSR: 3
You’ll see that both of these teams have very similar overall offenses numbers and very similar post-season bullpen performances. Where they separate significantly is defensively and on the base paths where both team has one advantage over the other. And also…maybe the pitching. If we get the same Walker Buehler we saw at Citi Field, then all that separates these two teams is home field, which isn’t much in baseball. How much of that was the weather? Will the weather be similar?
If we’re betting on seeing something similar to the regular season version of Buehler, then the Yankees should be moderate favorites. Something in between probably still makes the Yankees small favorites and that’s about where we the market is settling. I was hoping to have something for every game of this series, but the uncertainty surrounding Buehler and Ohtani makes it so difficult. I slightly lean Dodgers at anything above +120, but would probably need something close to +130 to throw half a unit their way.
The total is a possibility once we get a forecast closer to game time.
Update:
Two things to cover here. Both concerning the weather. In the mid-50s with a five mph wind blowing in from right-center is a bit more pitcher friendly than I had anticipated. Earlier reports suggested it might be slightly warmer. This likely takes somewhere from 10 to 20% off a neutrally projected total for Yankee Stadium (100 Park Run Factor L3 years) and puts me in line with the market going from above 9.5 to below 8.5.
The other thing is that while Buehler (and Schmidt) may be facing a headwind, like Buehler and Yamamoto did at Citi Field, the effect will certainly be less. Citi Field had double digit winds, more than double what's expected in the Bronx tonight. None the less, use Statcast, check the break more than the velocity of Buehler's pitches (iVB). Maybe it will lead you to a live play.
Update II:
The lineup surprise is Jose Trevino getting his first start of the post-season. With Buehler's near even splits, Trevino's elite framing (but poor throwing) and Wells' struggles this post-season, it barely moves the needle.
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