An eight game day after Easter Monday with six on the slate and none in the afternoon, but that pesky annual Boston morning game that nobody ever seems awake enough to play.
There will be no article on Tuesday. Things have been piling up that were unable to be taken care of on the weekend and I already had a mid-afternoon doctor’s appointment, so why not just get everything done Monday and Tuesday afternoon?
Legend at the bottom of the page.
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White Sox @ Red Sox
Sandwiched in between a pair of home starts (LAA, ATH), where Jonathan Cannon has thrown 9.1 scoreless innings, the Guardians and Tigers have blasted him for nine runs in as many innings with three home runs on as many barrels on the road. I’d imagine the weather in Chicago had something to do with his success because the six barrels and 45.3 HardHit% with an 8.3 K-BB% suggest disaster. The only positive notes have been half his contact on the ground and respectable pitch modeling (4.26 Bot ERA, 101 Pitching+).
Opp wRC+: 102
DEF: 3/-1
B30: 4.30
BSR: 1
After a strong bounce back start against the Blue Jays in poor Fenway weather, Walker Buehler allowed just two runs on three hits in Tampa Bay last time out, but also only went five innings with as many walks (three) as strikeouts and just a 3.4 SwStr%. Nothing but his changeup (12.4%) graded positively in that game, though his velocity has increased with each start this year. I’m not buying back in, but it’s the White Sox.
Opp wRC+: 69
DEF: -5/-2
B30: 3.22
BSR: 1
You’d expect an 11 am game to be sloppy under any circumstances, but it’s the White Sox and with Walker Buehler. I just don’t want any part of it.
Yankees @ Guardians
Clarke Schmidt throws a cutter as his main fastball (35.6%) and while it’s velocity was down a mph in his first start of the year, the secondary velocities were fine. He got to within an out of six innings on just 73 pitches with nine whiffs, split evenly between his three pitches. The curveball and sweeper appeared to have a different shape though. He allowed 11 hard hit batted balls with only nine grounders over 19 total batted balls, but just one barrel. Schmidt closed his previously wide platoon gap last season, so Cleveland shouldn’t be as bad a spot as it would have been in the past.
Opp wRC+: 108
DEF: 2/3
B30: 3.35
BSR: -2
Gavin Williams struck out four Orioles last time out with as many walks and more runs (five). Two of his four barrels left the yard with a 68.4 HardHit% overall. Again, fastball great, but with nothing else that he can really command, though they do get the necessary swings and misses. The result has been a career worst 4.40 Bot ERA and 93 Pitching+ so far. Batters from the right side are within two points of a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year.
Opp wRC+: 127
DEF: -5/-2
B30: 3.32
BSR: 1
A more disciplined lineup like the Yankees wouldn’t seem a good matchup for Williams. We could see a lot of bullpen work here and both have been tremendous, despite Clase’s early struggles.
Padres @ Tigers
Somehow, Randy Vasquez has produced a 1.74 ERA, while walking nearly twice as many (14) as he’s struck out (eight), while also allowing 9.4% Barrels/BBE. He’s cut down on everything else to go cutter (27.9%) and slider (22.5%) heavy this year. The result has been his wOBA against LHBs dropping to .283, though he’s only struck out one of the 44 he’s faced. Batters from that side still have a .415 xwOBA against him since last year.
Opp wRC+: 115
DEF: -5/-3
B30: 3.33
BSR: 2
Keider Montero struck out eight of 24 Brewers in his season debut. He generated 15 whiffs on 85 pitches, mostly with the slider (21.2%, 23.3 SwStr%). The main development is dropping down to 30.6% fastballs and throwing more sinkers (21.2%). There was a 42.1%/7.8% ratio last year. Now for the bad news. Montero allowed three barrels and they all went out. Hard contact was also generated on eight of 15 batted balls. It’s nice to see the whiffs, but batters from either side of the plate still exceed a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against Montero since last year with a reverse platoon split. However, he didn’t have the hard contact issues last year, so an improvement on the 11.2 K-BB% could pay large dividends if he sustains it.
Opp wRC+: 125
DEF: 1/2
B30: 4.09
BSR: 1
We’ve reached the Daily Fantasy portion of our programing and it seems apt to be writing about miracles on Easter night because that’s what Vasquez has performed. It isn’t the defense saving him. I’m certainly looking to stack left-handed Tigers here. On the other side, we generally don’t want to start pitchers against the Padres. However, with Arraez going down on Sunday night, their entire left-handed contingent is now IL’d with the current projected lineup suddenly sitting much closer to league average strikeout wise. I don’t have a problem with paying down for Montero as your SP2 or lining up against him until he proves it.
Reds @ Marlins
Since throwing 37.2% sinkers in his initial outing, Nick Lodolo has reduced usage of the pitch in each start with just 13.3% sinkers at home last time. He exceeded 30% fastballs and curveballs last time out, still below his 43% for the former last season. The sinker grades wells (58 PB, 114 P+), but with just a 121 wRC+ and 52.4 GB%, it’s understandable he’d go back to his more often favored pitch (fastball 63/100) throughout his career. Six of his 14 strikeouts came against the Mariners last time out. He’s not walking anyone (2.2%) and the 15.2 K% should increase if he’s truly phasing out the sinker. RHBs have a .304 wOBA and xwOBA against Lodolo since last year with RHBs around 20 points lower, but recent injuries and roster construction could see him facing a few LHBs in this one.
Opp wRC+: 110
DEF: 5/1
B30: 4.62
BSR: 0
I think I’ve been praising Max Meyer since his first start and he’s responded by falling just one out short of a quality start in all four tries and at least seven strikeouts in three of four starts. He’s up a mph and more than that in two of the four starts and throwing his slider (58 PB, 116 P+) 49% of the time with an 18.9 SwStr%. His overall pitch modeling scores have improved to a 3.05 Bot ERA and 112 Pitching+. A major part of his improvement is in a changeup that scores just as well as the slider (59/116).
Opp wRC+: 91
DEF: 3/0
B30: 4.90
BSR: 0
I’m on the Marlins and Meyer here. He’s just as good as Lodolo at worse, while the Cincinnati offense usually looks better than it really is because of their park and they don’t even look good. Both bullpens have stunk, but I’ve gone full game with the very slightly higher prices (+114). Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for more. Meyer is $2.5K less on DK than FD, where he's the second most expensive pitcher.
Phillies @ Mets
Written here before Nola’s last start…
“Aaron Nola has allowed six barrels (12.2%), of which four have left the yard with his only home start being against the Dodgers (two home runs, three barrels). Thus, the ERA and FIP above five check out. The 16.7 K-BB% is a bit low for him, but would mark the third consecutive year of decline in that department. If you accept the premise that he’s an above average innings eater rather than a Cy Young candidate, then you should be fine. There should be strikeouts in this Giants lineup for him.”
He did find those strikeouts. Eight of them, but still I wonder if my words were too optimistic. Nola walked four and was down to 90.4 mph. though he didn’t allow a barrel with only five hard hit batted balls (31.3%) with 56.4% of that contact on the ground. The good news is that his Bot ERA is down more than half a run from last season to 2.98, though his 109 Pitching+ is actually a decline of two points. The curveball (67 PB, 121 P+) remains his best pitch. In small samples, the Mets have been one of the worst offenses in the league against curveballs, but middle of the pack against knuckle curves. Take that however you will.
Opp wRC+: 98
DEF: 1/0
B30: 4.10
BSR: 1
Tyler Megill doubled up on his changeups against the Twins (9.5%). He hadn’t previously thrown the pitch more than 4.4% in any of his other three starts. You could say the Astros and Blue Jays run mostly right-handed, but he also faced the predominantly left-handed Marlins. Pitch modeling hates the pitch (20 PB, 23 P+), though the models were conflicted on it last year. However, the fastball, sinker, slider approach is going just fine (3.07 Bot ERA, 111 Pitching+). But how is he getting LHBs out? They have a .196 wOBA against him this season and are below a .300 wOBA and xwOBA since last year, so whatever he's doing is working. Megill struck out just three Twins and is down to a 15.1 K-BB% with a 48.3 HardHit%. The 1.40 ERA is because none of his three barrels have left the park and four of his seven runs are unearned. I’m skeptical that this is the breakout we’ve been hoping for the last few years, but he’s turning himself into a decent middle of the rotation arm at worst.
Opp wRC+: 103
DEF: -3/-3
B30: 2.98
BSR: 0
Two decent pitchers, even if neither looks like what we hoped they’d be this year in a pitcher’s park with temps in the low 50s (says Google) at game time. I’m siding with the under here. I figure slightly above average pitchers against what have been slightly above average offenses neutralize each other, while the Mets pen has been lights out for most of April and Philadelphia’s relief issues are concentrated on one or two arms.
Cardinals @ Braves
We won’t use up much time on Erick Fedde. He has a -1.2 K-BB% with a 40.3 HardHit% and the entire arsenal is below average (4.77 Bot ERA, 95 Pitching+). While LHBs have just a .298 wOBA against him since last year, but with a .329 xwOBA.
Opp wRC+: 99
DEF: 14/9
B30: 4.11
BSR: 1
Spencer Schwellenbach allowed more than one run for the first time this year or in seven starts since last season last time out. The Blue Jays smacked him around good (six runs, two home runs, three barrels, 50 HardHit%). He struck out only three, but sustained a 12.8 SwStr% with his best velocity of the season (97). His pitch model grading for the outing was elite (2.36 Bot ERA, 122 Pitching+). The Schwell one still carries an 18.1 K-BB%, 54.5 GB% with just four barrels (6.1%) on the season. I’m not concerned.
Opp wRC+: 106
DEF: 3/4
B30: 3.99
BSR: 2
Fedde can thank the St Louis defense and a .183 BABIP for his 3.43 ERA. In what’s supposed to be 80 degree weather, Atlanta is probably the top run environment on the league and Fedde is a pitcher I’m looking to attack on a smaller slate. Alternately, Schwellenbach is my top overall pitcher on the board at this point and a pretty strong value. While I still have four more to go, I don’t see that changing.
Blue Jays @ Astros
Kevin Gausman has struck out 16 of his last 50 (Braves & Red Sox), allowing just two earned over 14 innings without a walk. He’s done this throwing fastballs and splitters over 90% of the time, after throwing a slider over 10% in each of his first two starts. The fastball grade is actually down (but still nearly elite) from his first two starts, while the spiltter has caught up. I don’t know why I’m not totally convinced yet. His velocity is not all the way back to 2023 levels, but his Bot ERA is down more than a run from last season and his Pitching+ score up a full 10 points overall. I guess we have to respect this.
Opp wRC+: 89
DEF: 4/0
B30: 3.42
BSR: 0
Though he’s only struck out seven of his last 42 batters against the Mariners and Cardinals, Hunter Brown is now four for four in quality starts and has only allowed five runs overall. His velocity is up over a mph from last year, his K-BB is up to 19.5%, despite the last two starts, he’s generating a ton of ground balls (58.3%) and has allowed a 28.3 HardHit%. A 3.28 Bot ERA and 116 Pitching+ are All Star level stuff. Also, despite the lack of strikeouts against the Mariners, his SwStr% has only been below 11.5% this year against the Cardinals.
Opp wRC+: 92
DEF: 8/1
B30: 3.15
BSR: 0
I have these two pitchers rated very similarly because of the matchups and Gausman is cheaper. Houston is not the same offense and they strikeout around average. On the other hand, Toronto may not be hitting the snot out of the ball, but they very rarely miss it. I think it’s Gausman or nothing here.
Brewers @ Giants
Quinn Priester has allowed one run over 10 innings at Coors and against the Tigers, striking out eight of 40 with five walks. The pitch grading is not all that (4.61 Bot ERA, 98 Pitching+) with he sinker (51 PB, 109 P+) the only thing above average. The new cutter has a 2.8 SwStr%, while Priester hasn’t hit double digits in SwStr overall in both starts. Despite the sinker allowing him to keep the ball on the ground (53.8%), four of his 13 non-ground balls have been barrels. Batters from the left-hand side exceed a .360 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year, though he’s held RHBs below .290.
Opp wRC+: 106
DEF: -1/-1
B30: 3.86
BSR: 4
Robbie Ray has struck out 15 of his last 41 batters (at New York AL & Philadelphia), but with an 11.5 SwStr% that’s more average than spectacular, while he’s also walked 14 of his last 65. If you remember, the old Robbie Ray came with strikeouts, walks and barrels. Ray has allowed nine barrels (18.4%), though just two in his last two starts. Are there signs Ray is getting it together? That’s debatable. His fastball grade is below average in his last two starts (46 PB, 91 P+), while his slider has improved from his first two starts, but is still awful (35 PB, 78 P+). A small sample of LHBs (45) exceed a .420 wOBA and xwOBA against Ray since returning from TJ surgery last year, though RHBs are still below .300.
Opp wRC+: 79
DEF: 6/3
B30: 3.48
BSR: 2
The park is the allure here. You wouldn’t consider either pitcher in most parks, but there are enough strikeouts here to consider either pitcher, though I would be careful and certainly not count on either. I’d probably prefer Montero in Priester’s range (unless Arraez makes a miraculous recovery).
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented/projected lineup(Roster Resource) Fielding Run Value
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
BSR: Projected Lineup Base Running Runs
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