Fifteen games for Friday with an afternoon appetizer at Wrigley and 11 games on the main daily fantasy slate.
We are fully immersed in 2025 statistics, though recognizing their small sample sizes where needed. Legend at the bottom of the page.
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Diamondbacks @ Cubs
Corbin Burnes has a 49 PitchingBot grade and 101 Pitching+ on his cutter, down from 67 and 126 last year and 62 and 125 for his career. The good news is his last start, with increased velocity, was the best it looked and his first positive grades on the pitch this season. However, it seems like we’ve been making excuses about his inability to miss bats since he left Milwaukee and even the first half of his last season there.
Opp wRC+: 117
DEF: 2/3
B30: 2.61
BSR: 3
Colin Rea is pitching here too. His wOBA and xwOBA against RHBs since last season is only about 10-20 points worse than Burnes.
Opp wRC+: 139
DEF: 3/5
B30: 4.57
BSR: 1
Just found this dude on Twitter (I’ll never call it that other name) and he’s telling us the wind details at like a full day before! How awesome is that?
Royals @ Tigers
Cole Ragans is rolling with a 32.3 K-BB% through four starts. Nothing out of the norm (for him) to see here.
Opp wRC+: 93
DEF: -2/1
B30: 4.06
BSR: 0
I’ve heard it mentioned that despite great stuff (though pitch modeling doesn’t see it in the raw stuff grades right now), Jackson Jobe (1.7 K-BB% in three starts) has a delivery that’s too easy to time. This might have been a Fangraphs article or quote.
Opp wRC+: 60
DEF: 1/1
B30: 3.88
BSR: 0
If you believe that Kansas City is anywhere near a true talent 60 wRC+ offense (and they might be outside the two through four guys), then you’re supposed to like the home dog here. I can’t do it, but if it’s close when Ragans leaves the game and you can still get a decent price…
Guardians @ Pirates
Luis L Ortiz generated a 17 SwStr% against the Royals last time out, mostly from locating his heater upstairs. It was easily his best fastball grade of the season and led to positive overall reviews from PitchingBot and Pitching+. I don’t know that he holds it necessarily, but it could be that easy and this is a revenge game. Revenge for what? I don’t know.
Opp wRC+: 69
DEF: -6/-2
B30: 3.26
BSR: 0
The Pirates are starting a guy who’s name is hard to spell and even harder to pronounce. Shitty fastball, great slider. That’s not me. That’s pitch modeling talking.
Opp wRC+: 99
DEF: 2/-1
B30: 4.12
BSR: 0
Don’t forget that it’s Luis L Ortiz instead of…is there another Ortiz? I think the L is for his innie. He’s been severed by Cleveland. Pitching better because he doesn’t have to think about his outside life anymore.
Marlins @ Phillies
Second start, Sandy Alcantara’s velocity was down. Third start, it rebounded with some extra rest, but he couldn’t command. Hopefully he’s just working through the kinks and I hope the Marlins didn’t rush him back just to showcase him for a trade.
Opp wRC+: 98
DEF: 1/-2
B30: 5.14
BSR: -2
Since striking out 18 of his first 44 batters, Zack Wheeler has allowed nine runs in 11.1 innings in road starts at Atlanta and St Louis. He’s working with some different pitches to keep LHBs (.311 wOBA last year) honest and it’s working (.263), though his K-BB against them has only gone from 17.2% to 18%. However, RHBs have a .355 wOBA against him now, but also a 28.3 K-BB% that’s a bit higher than last year and only 46 PA, so I’m not really worried yet. Despite striking out just 10 of his last 52, he’s held a SwStr above 11% in each of his last two starts.
Opp wRC+: 87
DEF: 1/3
B30: 3.88
BSR: -1
Let’s see if two of the best pitchers in the National League for the last half decade can get right.
Reds @ Orioles
HEY AAAAABBBOTTTT!! You’re velocity was down 1.4 mph. He still struck out five of 19 Pirates with just one run allowed. He did this with a 4.9 SwStr% and as many barrels (two) as ground balls. His pitch grades were the same as last year (poor – 4.99 Bot ERA, 91 Pitching+). His 31.4 career GB% is lowest in the league since his debut among pitchers with a certain amount of innings I can’t be bothered to look up right now. With just a 10.6 K-BB% last season, don’t expect him to maintain 82.9 LOB%.
Opp wRC+: 69
DEF: 3/4
B30: 4.11
BSR: 0
Cade Povich’s pitch count has declined with each start from 94 first time out to just 76 against Toronto in his most recent outing. He has just a 7.0 SwStr% with declining velocity in each start too. Pitch modeling is still solid (3.60 Bot ERA, 103 Pitching+) and actually improving with each start, so go figure. Batters from either side of the plate a .310 wOBA and xwOBA against him in his career with a large wOBA, but very small xwOBA gap.
Opp wRC+: 40
DEF: -4/-1
B30: 3.63
BSR: 1
If the weather’s decent and the wind’s blowing out, I guess you run up some RHBs here, but Good Lord that Cincy offense. They have a 63 wRC+ on the road so far too.
Yankees @ Rays
Despite striking out 16 of his last 48 batters, Carlos Rodon has really struggled since his Opening Day brilliance against the Brewers. He has just a 9.0 SwStr% and 14.1 BB% since. The good news is that he’s allowed five home runs, but only four barrels over that span. His velocity also dropped two mph in both games following that first start, but did bounce halfway back last time out. The fastball still grades as a quality pitch, but the slider has dropped from a 56 PB and 116 P+ grade last season to 52 and 98 this season and 48 and 89 over his last three starts. RHBs have a .325 wOBA and .316 xwOBA since last year and even LHBs have already tagged him for two home runs this year (three all of last season), not a great sign for this park, where I’m just realizing it’s very weird for the Yankees to call themselves visitors.
Opp wRC+: 99
DEF: 1/0
B30: 3.38
BSR: 2
Drew Rasmussen has been held to a very strict twice through the order limit He hasn’t gone beyond 19 batters or 80 pitches, but has increased slightly with each start. The fastball and cutter grade as elite pitches, leading an overall 2.70 Bot ERA and 111 Pitching+. The major concern here is his sinker (24.5%, 43 PB, 93 P+, Yankees 2.03 wSI/C), which he just has to be smart enough not to throw, especially to LHBs. Rasmussen has allowed one run in 15 innings with a 24.1 K-BB% and nearly half his contact (47.2%) on the ground. This has led to a single barrel and just 13 batted balls reaching a 95 mph EV.
Opp wRC+: 132
DEF: 0/-4
B30: 3.63
BSR:
I think we have a significant gap in starting pitching here with two guys trending in opposite directions. That said, the Yankee bullpen has been dominant, so I’ll easily go F5 for nearly the same price (-115 DK). That said, I don’t think I’d feel comfortable with Rasmussen above $8K in a dangerous park against a dangerous park with that limited workload. I also probably would rather attack Rodon than roster him at this point. He’s racking up Ks that are a bit unsustainable right now. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for more. On a nice little run there now (6-1).
Mariners @ Blue Jays
Bryan Woo is up nearly a mph this season, but like most Seattle pitchers has a bit of a home/road split. Woo dropped 7.3 points of K-BB% on the road in 2024. It’s tough to get away with just fastballs and sinkers (combined 73.4% of pitches) outside of Seatte, but I imagine he might lean more sinker heavy in this park? While batters increased by nearly 60 points of wOBA on the road against Woo last season, it was still just .276.
Opp wRC+: 95
DEF: -6/-8
B30: 3.65
BSR: -1
Bowden Francis is running a 3.71 ERA with a .167 BABIP. He’s already allowed six barrels (13%) with a 52.2 HardHit% with a half mph in his starting velocity from last year. He also has a higher walk rate (10.1%) than swinging strike rate (9.0%). The fastball is fine, but that’s all it is. The splitter has declined (43 PB, 63 P+) from near average grades last year. LHBs have an xwOBA 50 points better than their actual results against him since last year.
Opp wRC+: 117
DEF: 2/-2
B30: 3.31
BSR: 2
First of all, you can’t use Woo on the road against the most contact prone offense in the league. I’m not even sure you can roster pitchers against the Blue Jays in Seattle. They have a team 17.4 K% vs RHP this year. I also don’t think Francis is good enough right now against a Seattle offense with 136 wRC+ and 18.2 K% on the road this year. Lastly, I’m jumping the over F5 at 4.5 (+114).
Cardinals @ Mets
Miles Mikolas is down 1.3 mph and combines an 8.3 K-BB% and BB% with a 37.8 GB% and, so far, average contact profile. His hard contact had been up above 40% each of the two previous seasons. The slider is junk (42 PB, 92 P+) and brings the whole profile down (4.17 Bot ERA, 97 P+). That’s still a near average pitcher, but LHBs have a .343 wOBA/.340 xwOBA against him since last year with RHBs only 10-15 points lower.
Opp wRC+: 95
DEF: 6/0
B30: 3.80
BSR: 1
David Peterson has increased his K-BB (12.7%) and ground ball rate (58.1%), but also his walks (11.3%) a significant drop in SwStr to 7.1%. He has been trending up in velocity each start though and is now where he was last season, at 93 mph. Except for his slider (17.1%), all of his pitches, which were barely league average last year or below, have declined, resulting in a 4.63 Bot ERA and 84 Pitching+. It’s a great park to pitch in, but Peterson allowed just eight home runs on 26 Barrels last year, while two of his first three have gone out this year. RHBs have a .317 wOBA, but .354 xwOBA against him since last year.
Opp wRC+: 124
DEF: 2/1
B30: 2.88
BSR: 0
There’s probably a bet to be had here on St Louis, but I have a lot of trouble pulling the trigger on Mikolas. That said, despite it being a pitcher’s park with temperatures expected in the upper 50s, I can’t endorse either of these pitchers. Peterson has more upside, but also costs $2K more. If you're looking to roster St Louis bats in a tough park, keep in mind how good the Mets bullpen has been. Second best estimators in the league this year.
White Sox @ Red Sox
Martin Perez has a .231 BABIP and 84.2 LOB%. He’s managed contact well with a 26.9 K%, but 9.7 SwStr% and 13.4 BB%. He also has the worst pitch modeling of his career (5.56 Bot ERA, 80 Pitching+) with the sinker being a particular offender (36.1%, 30, 58), which is down 2.5 mph this year. The Red Sox have murdered sinkers this year (1.38 wSI/C). RHBs exceed a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last season.
Opp wRC+: 97
DEF: 2/-2
B30: 4.00
BSR: 3
Twenty-five year old Hunter Dobbins struck out five of 24 Cardinals (14 SwStr%) with two walks in five innings of one run ball in his major league debut. He kept half his contact on the ground without a barrel, but 43.8 HardHit%. Tommy John and COVID pushed his development back and he was ranked just the 22nd best Boston prospect by Fangraphs over the winter. They called him a major league ready fifth starter with a velocity uptick and the addition of a splinker. The pitch graded a 66 PB and 122 P+ in his debut with an overall 4.02 Bot ERA and 95 Pitching+. He had just a 13.7 K-BB% in 125.2 minor league innings last year (AA & AAA) and has not been a huge strikeout guy throughout his journey.
Opp wRC+: 72
DEF: -3/0
B30: 3.07
BSR: 0
If the weather is cooperative you can either attack Perez or roster a cheap Dobbins on DK as your SP2. Temperatures are likely to be around 50, but which way the wind is blowing ultimately probably decides whether you want offense or defense from this game.
Twins @ Braves
Chris Paddack has an elite pitch that he throws 25.2% of the time (changeup 71 PB, 144 P+), yet LHBs still, somehow, have a .347 wOBA and .361 xwOBA against him since last year. Even his fastball (50%) grades fine (51, 103). Maybe he truly needs that third pitch. His last start, against Detroit, was his first good one this year, so maybe he’s found his rhythm.
Opp wRC+: 97
DEF: -2/-1
B30: 3.41
BSR: 0
Bryce Elder has been torched for eight runs, four home runs, a 16.3 K% and a 44.1 HardHit% over three starts. However, he’s only allowed three barrels and all of his pitch grades have increased by a large margin (3.49 BotERA, 109 Pitching+). I don’t get it. LHBs have a .399 wOBA and .383 xwOBA against Elder since last year.
Opp wRC+: 99
DEF: 2/4
B30: 4.08
BSR: 1
It’s warm with a near 10 mph wind blowing in from right, which probably hurts LHBs slightly. Both pitchers are so cheap that you can look at the pitch grades and wonder. I don’t love it, but I understand it. Both teams are below 4.5 implied runs, but I also certainly want LHBs against Elder too.
Dodgers @ Rangers
Yoshi Yama has increased his K-BB to 25.3%, has generated two-thirds of his contact on the ground and reduced his hard hit rate (37.5%). He’s allowed just two barrels in four starts. Fastball and splitter grades are up (2.90 Bot ERA, 116 Pitching+). He’s even increased his pitch count in each start to 103 last time out. Are the Dodgers ready to make him their workhorse? The only issue is that RHBs still have a .315 wOBA against him so far (.316 since last year with a .299 xwOBA), but even that’s hardly a problem.
Opp wRC+: 86
DEF: -1/1
B30: 3.07
BSR: 3
Jacob deGrom has a 16.1 SwStr%. Given, that’s his lowest mark since 2019 (ignoring last year’s small sample), but the point is that the strikeout rate won’t remain 20.6%. Still, he’s throwing 96.6 mph, intentionally to stay healthy, but LHBs have crushed deGrom for a .393 wOBA and .386 xwOBA since returning from Tommy John surgery. The fastball slider combination is still dominating RHBs (.273, .191), but maybe he should just throw harder against LHBs? He’s still carrying a 2.84 Bot ERA with a 119 Pitching+. All of his pitch grades are down, but the fastball and slider are still well above average and the changeup is fine too (57, 100). He’ll be fine eventually (if he’s fine healthwise), but he’s faced 37 LHBs with a 2.5 K-BB% and four home runs. He has to figure that out.
Opp wRC+: 134
DEF: 0/-2
B30: 3.08
BSR: 1
The Dodgers aren’t an offense you figure out your problems with LHBs against. I’d certainly go contrarian and drop some LAD LHBs in your GPPs. I already mentioned I’m on the Dodgers -135 F5 here (Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network). Yamamoto is the most expensive pitcher on the board and probably adequately priced. I’d be a bit concerned if they opened the roof tonight from a DFS standpoint. He should be fine, but the Rangers don’t strike out a ton.
Padres @ Astros
Kyle Hart has struck out eight of 46 batters (8.3 SwStr%) with five walks, while getting blasted for a 51.5 HardHit%. He’s throwing the slider over 40% of the time and he needs to because his only pitch that’s even close to average (63 PB, 122 P+). He pitched well in a home start against the Rockies last time out, but who hasn’t? (Okay, Bobby Miller) RHBs have a .379 wOBA and .375 xwOBA against him. I know what you’re thinking about that number below, but the Astros (71 PA) are the only offense below 100 PAs vs LHP this year. Their projected lineup has a 131 wRC+ against LHP since last season.
Opp wRC+: 30
DEF: -4/-4
B30: 3.21
BSR: 1
Twenty-six year old Ryan Gusto has not been mentioned in a Houston prospect report for years and he started with them in 2019. In 148.1 AAA innings last year, he posted a 14.1 K-BB%. There’s a gap in his record from 2019 to 2022, but he hasn’t exceeded a 16.2 K-BB% anywhere post-gap. He struck out six of 17 Angels in his first start, throwing 55.7% fastballs (he aims high with 19.1 iVB) and no other pitch more than 11.5%, but pitch modeling has loved what they’ve seen out of him so far (2.43 Bot ERA, 109 Pitching+) and you gotta love a guy with…Gusto?
Opp wRC+: 129
DEF: 6/4
B30: 3.07
BSR: -1
Maybe Gusto gets them first time through the league, but I don’t know if we can trust a guy with that marginal a minor league track record long run. Batters will always catch up to a one trick pony and that may be what Gusto is. We can’t roster pitchers against the contact prone Padres and Gusto isn’t even that cheap already. We do want Astros (4.93 team run total), though the San Diego pen has been strong.
Athletics @ Brewers
Maybe there was a little bit of extra juice against the team that traded him away as J.T. Ginn struck out six of 23 Mets, but he was up two mph from last season and that’s only half a mph above what he’d been throwing at AAA this year. That said, PitchingBot gave his sinker/slider approach a 4.69 Bot ERA for the outing, though Pitching+ was at 113. Ginn threw 34 major league innings last year with a massive, nearly 100 point split (LHBs .390 wOBA, .368 xwOBA) and that makes sense with the sinker/slider thing, but he still posted a 14.1 K-BB%. He’ll be facing a balanced lineup here that always seems to outperform expectations.
Opp wRC+: 116
DEF: -7/-3
B30: 3.73
BSR: 1
Freddy Peralta hasn’t allowed more than two runs in a start yet, but has also only recorded more than one sixth inning out once too. He has faced the Yankees and Diamondbacks, but also the Rockies and Royals, but you can’t deny the overall 21.7 K-BB% with a 32.7 HardHit%. The limited workload is not for lack of trying. He was up to 103 pitches last time out. The fastball grades are up from last year(59 PB, 112 P+), but are the only pitch that modeling likes (3.98 Bot ERA, 97 Pitching+).
Opp wRC+: 116
DEF: 1/1
B30: 3.79
BSR: 0
Milwaukee is a negative run environment (three year rolling Statcast) with the roof closed and not much worse on average with he roof open. I think Ginn may work for $6.6K on DK in an SP2 spot, but still would want some Milwaukee LHB exposure. 17.8%, 7.7%, 13.2%, 15.6% - that’s the strikeout rates against RHP since last year for the Bleday through Urshela (5-8) part of the projected A’s lineup. Like Yamamoto, I think Peralta is fine here and a top pitcher on the board overall, but adequately priced. He is a bit barrel and home run prone without much of a split, so I wouldn’t rule out an Oakland one off or two. They have power.
Nationals @ Rockies
Google says freezing w/ snow/rain. May not be played, but total of 9 with two solid pitchers and one atrocious offense is an easy under call here. Will elaborate later.
Update: Already PPD as expected. I was going to play pitchers from this game if it played.
Giants @ Angels
A Fangraphs article earlier this week noted that Logan Webb has started throwing a cutter. He doesn’t throw it a ton (13%), just something else to make them think about. It grades poorly (44 PB, 84 P+), but it’s effect on other pitches has been positive with a two point jump in his SwStr rate (10.5%) and 7.5 point jump in his strikeout rate (28%). Yeah, that’s probably not sustainable and all of his pitch modeling grades are down (3.67 Bot ERA, 101 Pitching+), but LHBs had a .342 wOBA away from San Francisco against Webb last season. They were the only split to have a hard hit rate above 34.2% against him via Fangraphs splits, though Statcast is showing a 45% hard hit rate overall and you can probably guess where most of that comes from too. The gist of that great article still stands. He had to adjust.
Opp wRC+: 108
DEF: -4/-2
B30: 3.43
BSR: 2
On trick pony Chase Anderson’s one trick has declined (changeup 56 PB, 106 P+), but he’s still BABIPing .194 with a 93.6 LOB%. The now 7.7 K-BB% with five barrels already (12.8%) will catch up. However, he has a reverse split (LHBs .357 wOBA, .360 xwOBA) and with that changeup, it’s clear as day that the Giants should leave their LHBs in the lineup, as nobody does against this guy.
Opp wRC+: 89
DEF: 1/-3
B30: 4.53
BSR: 2
You may be looking at that 108 wRC+ for the Angels and I’ll even add to the concern with a 17.8 HR/FB vs RHP and 27.2 HR/FB at home this year. However, ground ball pitcher (52.5%) against a lineup with strikeouts (24.3 K% vs RHP) against a pitcher who can give you seven innings regularly and I like Webb a bit more than some other higher priced pitchers here. True, this is one of the most hitter friendly west coast parks, but with cooler temperatures, below 60 tonight and the Angels have only been running two LHBs (Schanuel, Rengifo) against RHP lately. Webb may be my top overall arm on the board tonight with the Coors PPD, which I know is a ridiculous thing to say.
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented/projected lineup(Roster Resource) Fielding Run Value
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (remember that teams will only be throwing their top arms and even backend starters out of the pen in a short series, making these numbers less useful)
BSR: Projected Lineup Base Running Runs
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