SP Tuesday 4/22 MLB Thoughts & Analysis

I’ve run the numbers and am only going through a few of Tuesday’s games without daily fantasy notes and I won’t be able to update on Tuesday.

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Yankees @ Guardians

I have great difficulty advocating for Will Warren’s 13.4 BB% or 50% hard hit rate, but his velocity has been climbing with each start and pitch modeling not only likes his stuff, but even factoring in the command, he registers a 3.80 Bot ERA and 107 Pitching+.

Opp wRC+: 106
DEF: 2/3
B30: 3.45
BSR: -2

In four outings, Tanner Bibee has two starts without allowing a run (10.1 innings), but with as many walks (six) as strikeouts. In his other two starts, he’s struck out more (nine) than he’s walked (five), but with seven home runs on eight barrels. We see a substantial decline in his pitch modeling grades (4.48 Bot ERA, 92 Pitching+), specifically the fastball (51 PB, 87 P+ to 34 PB, 67 P+), Opposing batters have at least a 120 wRC+ on every pitch ending a plate appearance, while on a per pitch basis, none top a 13.5 SwStr% and he’s already allowed a home run on four of his five pitches. Batters from the left-hand side have a .347 wOBA and .322 xwOBA against Bibee since last year.

Opp wRC+: 128
DEF: -5/-2
B30: 3.32
BSR: 1

Both of these pitches are talented messes this year. One, both or neither may figure it out, but I want to concentrate on some other areas, specifically, the massive Yankee offensive edge and the surprising defensive and base running ones as well. The Guardians are supposed to be the small market team that does everything that’s under-rated efficiently, but that doesn’t appear to be the case so far. While both closers have struggled, the remainder of each pen  has sustained dominance. I have the Yankees favored here. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for more.

Orioles @ Nationals

Dean Kremer has decreased fastball usage and is now throwing five pitches between 15% and 26% and despite the improved pitch model grading (4.04 Bot ERA, 98 Pitching+), his K-BB has decreased to 10% with just a 6.9 SwStr% and he’s still allowing 9.7% Barrels/BBE (9.8% last year). That would mean more barrels if his strikeout rate were to remain at 14.4%, rather than last year’s 22.2%. Batters from the left-hand side are above a .320 wOBA and xwOBA against Kremer since last year and the Washington lineup is loaded with them.

Opp wRC+: 98
DEF: -6/0
B30: 4.13
BSR: -1

Four quality starts in a row for Mitchell Parker to start the season, only one with more than one run allowed, but he walked more Diamondbacks than he struck out in one, while also facing the Marlins and Phillies in two others. While his Bot ERA has declined (4.81), his Pitching+ has improved (96), but in terms of actual results, a 6.9 K-BB% with a 43.2 HardHit% are concerning, but with a 48.6 GB% that’s about 10 points higher than anything he’s ever posted in the majors or minors, he’s allowed just a pair of barrels (2.7%). Which parts of that are sustainable?

Opp wRC+: 55
DEF: -2/-2
B30: 4.69
BSR: 0

Throw away Baltimore’s 55 wRC+ against LHP. That’s not why I’m on the Nationals (+114) here. It’s because the Nationals match up well with Kremer, who should rarely be a road favorite. Aside from the bullpen, the Nationals match up fairly well in most areas here.

Phillies @ Mets

I just wanted to show this to illustrate how the Cardinals were hacking at Griffin Canning's fastballs all over the place last time out. Seven of his 16 whiffs came on the pitch. I hope he doesn't think it's going to be a thing now. That is all.