If I were asked for a writing sample from a prospective employee, I would show them yesterday's Jack Flaherty blurb with a copy of the box score. It's perhaps the most prognosticative thing I've written all year. Not that I put my money where my proverbial mouth was, but let's try and ride that wave through the rest of the post-season.
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented/projected lineup(Roster Resource) Fielding Run Value
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average this post-season (this is new)
BSR: Projected Lineup Base Running Runs
If you find the information on this site helpful, the tip jar is open at mtrollo86@gmail.com on Paypal.
Yankees @ Guardians
If you ask a casual fan or television analyst, they will probably tell you that Carlos Rodon had a great second half because he had a 2.91 ERA, compared to 4.63 in the first half. That’s not exactly it though.
First 16 starts: 15.8 K-BB%, 10.5% Barrels/BBE, 43.4 HardHit%, 3.86 ERA
Next 13 starts: 24.4 K-BB%, 10% Barrels/BBE, 38 HardHit%, but 4.52 ERA.
Last three starts: 10.4 K-BB%, 17.4% Barrels/BBE, but 32.6 HardHit% and 2.16 ERA
It was odd, but the most prevailing theme was the barrels. On the season, his 3.96 ERA was within half a run of all estimators, but with only a 3.78 SIERA below four. If we get the July and August version of Rodon, the Yankees are in good shape with less contact, meaning less hard contact. Another problem is that RHBs had a .323 wOBA and .330 xwOBA against him this year. I’m not exactly sure what Cleveland will do lineup wise because they often leave three or four LHBs in there against same handed pitching, but the power comes mostly from the right-hand side.
Pitch modeling absolutely loved Rodon this season (122 Stuff+, 103 Pitching+), while the fastball (49.4%, 0.4 RV/100, 59 PB grade) is a pitch the Guardians had no trouble handling since the deadline (0.56 wFA/C is third best). The slider (26%, -0.5 RV/100, 56 PB grade) was another story though (-0.6 wSL/C was seventh worst).
The story of Rodon’s start in Game Two against the Royals was one of both BABIP and hard contact. He struck out seven of 18 batters, but with seven hits. He also allowed seven batted balls with an exit velocity of at least 95 mph and only one of those was on the ground. The fastball velocity sat at 97 mph, up 1.6 mph from his season average and harder than he average in every single game outside his last one before the All-Star game against the Orioles, knowing he’d have some extra rest. There did not seem to be any concentrated effort capture the edges of the strike zone though and maybe some of his pitches were just a bit too fat. Rodon also generated 12 whiffs, not easy against the Royals and perhaps harder to duplicate against the Guardians.
Rodon dominated Cleveland in a way you wouldn’t expect in Game One, striking out nine of six three hit innings. Up nearly half a mph on his fastball, which was down over a mph from the ALDS start, Rodon got nine whiffs with his slider, but a stunning 12 with his fastball, counter to the information a couple of paragraphs above. In all, 52 of the 93 pitches he threw were fastballs with 25 sliders and also 25 swings and misses. He wasn’t exactly dotting corners and went unpunished for several fastballs left right over the heart of the plate. The Guardians put 12 batted balls in fair territory, five of them hard hit, only one of those on the ground. If he’s somehow able to repeat this performance (I have my doubts Cleveland will swing and miss that much again), the Yankees would either be a step closer to or heading to the World Series.
Opp wRC+: 114 (20.7K%, 109 Home)
DEF: 6/17
B30: 3.83
BSR: 1
Tanner Bibee pitches in his first post-season coming off a 20.1 K-BB% in his second major league season. This, along with 7.0% Barrels/BBE and a 36.9 HardHit% produces estimators all above, but within half a run of his 3.47 ERA. There is some caution with his 34.6 GB%. Bibee finished the season with 19.2 innings of six run ball over his last three start and had a long layoff (Sept 24th – Oct 5th) between starts. Normally, he’s be the only Cleveland pitcher afforded any kind of leash, but that hasn’t necessarily been the case for any Cleveland pitcher this post-season. Bibee’s split (LHBs .336 wOBA, .318 xwOBA – RHBs .252, .289) is a bit of a concern against the Yankees, who will likely deploy five LHBs.
He faced just 19 Tigers, striking out six with a walk and four hits. He also hit one, but did not allow a run in Game One. Of the 76 pitches thrown, 33 were fastaballs, averaging just 0.3 mph over his season mark. He did well to avoid the absolute center of the plate and generated more swings (39) than takes (37). Detroit swung and missed 11 of Bibee’s pitches, fouling 17 off and reaching a 95 mph EV on five of 11 balls put into play, which was apparently too many for Vogt’s liking. I was surprised to see him exit so early in that outing.
Bibee’s second outing was even shorter (16 batters, 64 pitches), but there was more at stake later in the series. He struck out just three with two walks and a home run over four innings (two runs). His fastball was up 0.5 mph over his season average here, but got just one of his six total whiffs with the changeup the better bat missing pitch (three of five swings). Bibee did a solid job of avoiding the middle of the plate, though some of that was because he was missing the plate completely (38 pitches), which is why batters did not offer on 39 of his pitches. Two of his five hard hit batted balls were on the ground.
In Game Two against the Yankees, Bibee lasted just 11 batters, 39 pitches and four outs, which is why he’s being brought back on short rest for Game Five. The average velocity on his 20 fastballs was up 0.5 mph again and even generated three whiffs on 11 swings, but that pitch and the cutter allowed a total of five hard hit batted balls, four in the air out of a total of eight BBE. Bibee certainly needs to better locate his cutter.
Opp wRC+: 120 (15.8 HR/FB, 117 Road, 115, 3.3 K-BB% Post-Season)
DEF: 5/26
B30: 3.89
BSR: -9
I haven't looked at the forecast yet, but Alan Porter leans slightly hitter friendly behind the plate. Without a posted line yet, I have the Guardians as very small full game and F5 favorites with a total between seven and a half and eight, accounting for park and umpire, but again, not weather. If there's any additional pertinent information, check here for updates.
Update:
Temps in the mid-upper 50s w/ little to no wind factor. I guess Naylor plays against LHP now and Hedges against RHP? Regardless, CLE has reached a point +110, where I'm starting to show minor value on them at home with defensive and base running edges. Both pens exhausted.
Add comment
Comments