Potentially the last multi-game day of baseball this season. The Guardians looked like they could make a series of it until Emmanuel Clase did what he does in the post-season. Give up huge home runs. The Dodgers have also taken a lead on the second pitch by Jose Quintana and may be able to close it out on Friday if they hold as well. Of course, both teams only have single run leads as of this writing. Things can change. And a Vientos home run ties it up as I say it. And now Big Christmas blasts a two out, two run game tying home run in the ninth.
I'm done with trying to predict the weather before I see it (it's supposed to be near 70 in New York again, but was also supposed to be near 70 on Thursday, which didn't happen.). Umpires, we do know. It will be the very pitcher friendly Bill Miller in New York and the very neutral Chris Segal in Cleveland.
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented/projected lineup(Roster Resource) Fielding Run Value
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average this post-season (this is new)
BSR: Projected Lineup Base Running Runs
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Yankees @ Guardians
Neither starting pitcher in this game has pitched since September. For Luis Gil, it’s a three week layoff, allowing four home runs to the Pirates in his final outing of the season, driving his ERA up to exactly 3.50, still at least one-third of a run below all estimators and more than half a run below everything except his xERA (3.83). Gil struck out a lot of batters (26.8%), but also walked far too many (12.1%) with not a lot of hard contact (37.4%), but too much of it in barrels (9.5%). He had just a 21.7 K% over his last four starts.
Gil had a 34 point wOBA split and 48 point xwOBA one, which won’t play well against a nearly entirely left-handed Cleveland lineup. He produced an impressive 110 Stuff+, but the control problems dropped him to a 100 Pitching+. PitchingBot grades ranged from 49 to 53 (4.23 Bot ERA) on all three of his pitches.
Opp wRC+: 95 (20 K%, 109 Home, 77 Post-Season)
DEF: 6/17
B30: 2.99
BSR: 3
Gavin Williams has sat almost a week longer than Gil. He has talent, but mostly in his fastball (51.5%, -0.1 RV/100, 63 PB grade). He has a 20 grade slider (11.3%), which he should never throw, but the rest of his arsenal ranges from 45 (curveball 19.8%) to 52 (cutter 12%). While his 3.75 Bot ERA beats Gil by half a run, his 99 Stuff+ works up to a 102 Pitching+. Hard to see why with a 9.6 K%. Striking out batters at an above average 23.8% rate, a 44 HardHit% is still a major problem with all those walks, though he has somehow allowed just 6.9% Barrels/BBE with a 40.6 GB%.
A slight positive against the Yankees might be his reverse split (61 points by wOBA, 66 by xwOBA), unless the Yankees decide to run out the predominantly right-handed lineup again, though it’s not that much of an edge and New York’s punishment of the pitches in his arsenal since the trade deadline may be an even bigger disadvantage. They’re seventh best against sliders and curveballs over that time-frame and sixth best against fastballs.
Opp wRC+: 120 (15.8 HR/FB, 117 Road, 116, 3.0 K-BB% PS)
DEF: 5/27
B30: 3.51
BSR: -9
Gavin Williams has sat almost a week longer than Gil. He has talent, but mostly in his fastball (51.5%, -0.1 RV/100, 63 PB grade). He has a 20 grade slider (11.3%), which he should never throw, but the rest of his arsenal ranges from 45 (curveball 19.8%) to 52 (cutter 12%). While his 3.75 Bot ERA beats Gil by half a run, his 99 Stuff+ works up to a 102 Pitching+. Hard to see why with a 9.6 K%. Striking out batters at an above average 23.8% rate, a 44 HardHit% is still a major problem with all those walks, though he has somehow allowed just 6.9% Barrels/BBE with a 40.6 GB%.
A slight positive against the Yankees might be his reverse split (61 points by wOBA, 66 by xwOBA), unless the Yankees decide to run out the predominantly right-handed lineup again, though it’s not that much of an edge and New York’s punishment of the pitches in his arsenal since the trade deadline may be an even bigger disadvantage. They’re seventh best against sliders and curveballs over that time-frame and sixth best against fastballs.
Opp wRC+: 120 (15.8 HR/FB, 117 Road, 116, 3.0 K-BB% PS)
DEF: 5/27
B30: 3.51
BSR: -9
Projecting these pitchers normally, I make this game dead even (full game, CLE slight F5 favorite, total around 7.5 w/o weather consideration). That won’t be the case here at all, but both teams also emptied the bullpen in a just concluded extra inning affair with the high leverage relievers being hit hard on both sides. Not knowing what they’ll do, I still have it even with less of a confidence interval.
Dodgers @ Mets
Jack Flaherty was traded to the Dodgers after 18 starts of a 27.5 K-BB%. He was nearly traded to the Yankees, who balked at the medicals and maybe they were right because while Flaherty still posted a 17.9 K-BB% with the Dodgers that dipped to 13.6% over his last seven starts, while his velocity also dropped half a mile per hour post-trade. Flaherty’s 95 Stuff+ and 104 Pitching+ dropped to 92 and 98 post-trade then 90 and 94 over the last seven. The one thing that didn’t change was his quality of contact (7.7% Barrels/BBE, 34.9 HardHit%), but Flaherty was clearly not the same pitcher who began the season at the end of it. Flaherty’s significant reverse split (RHBs .315 wOBA, .311 xwOBA) may be bad news against a predominantly right-handed Mets lineup (though maybe a favor if they keep playing Martinez), who are supposed to have Jeff McNeil available for this series (they do, he hasn’t been used), but could stick with Jose Iglesias and J.D. Martinez (they have), offering Flaherty just a pair of LHBs (Lindor & Nimmo).
The good news for Flaherty is that he averaged 93.3 mph on his 42 fastballs in the NLDS. That was exactly his season average and only 0.3 mph above his last seven starts, but 1.5 mph above his last two regular season starts. The bad news is that the Padres still belted two home runs, while only swinging and missing at five of 90 pitches, resulting in just two strikeouts with a walk and HBP over 22 batters. He was charged with four runs. The curveball generated four of the five whiffs. The slider was swung at nine times without a miss and a 95.2 mph average EV. The pair of home runs came off of a slider and a fastball with five more hard hit batted balls, but only one other one off the ground (also a slider).
Seven innings of two hit ball with as many walks, but no runs and six strikeouts is what the Dodgers got out of Flaherty in Game One. This, despite being down to 92.6 mph. He only had a lower average velocity in three starts this season, including his last two. Eight of his 11 whiffs came from the curve and the slider though, as Flaherty buried them below the zone. He did leave several fastballs middle-middle, but was unpunished for it. Mets batters did elevate seven hard hit batted balls (43.75% of contact).
I believe Flaherty’s Game One performance was solid once he got ahead, but flawed and beatable if he pitches the same game again, like the Padres showed in the NLDS. The decreased velocity and hard contact are proof of that.
Opp wRC+: 114
DEF: -4/-18
B30: 4.11
BSR: -4
This is a rematch from Game One over the weekend, so the analysis will be the same with a few updates…
In a shocker of a move, Carlos Mendoza announced Kodai Senga as his game one starter in the NLDS. Senga had faced 20 batters all season. One start. He faced four batters in a 9/21 rehab start and then shut it down again. Projections all concur with something around three and three quarters runs per nine, which may be slightly conservative if Senga truly is healthy. Last year, Senga exhibited a bit of a reverse split and perhaps that’s going to help him against the Dodgers, as it did the Phillies. Batters from the left side had just a .263 wOBA against Senga with six of his 17 home runs. In the one game he did pitch this year, Senga earned a 110 Stuff+ grade.
There’s nothing wrong with his arm (or so at least we thought) and he proved that after allowing a leadoff home run to Kyle Scwarber and then striking out three of his last seven batters. A walk his only other base runner. Throwing only 31 pitches may leave him in line to close to double that and perhaps three to four innings against the Dodgers. Thirteen of his pitches were fastballs, averaging 94.3 mph, down 1.5 mph from his lone season start and both his AAA starts this season and rookie season last year. I wasn’t concerned at the time, considering the layoff. He threw six splitters, three of which were offered at, all whiffs. Five of his pitches overall were swung on and missed, while another five were called strikes. Senga was a little bit wild with the Phillies helping him out some (41 O-Swing%, 44 Z-Swing%), staying away from the middle of the plate. Schwarber’s leadoff homer was the only hard hit batted ball.
Senga actually decreased his pitch count to 30 against the Dodgers in Game One of the NLCS because it all fell apart. He walked four without a strikeout, lasting only four outs with his fastball down to 90.6 mph on average, more than 3.5 mph down from his average last season and the few strikes he did throw were mostly right down the pipe. He did not register a single swing and miss, though only one of his six batted balls was hard hit and off the ground. The walks did most of the damage.
There was a lot of criticism for Carlos Mendoza the next day, which I didn’t hear nearly as much of pre-game or when Senga pitched in Philadelphia. I thought it was a bit unfair (though he’s fair game for many other critiques about how he’s handled the roster in this series), but to see how off Senga was in his first start against the Dodgers, I have my concerns here, especially as it now looks like it could be an elimination game for the Mets. The other alternative would be a Peterson start, which is not ideal either, but if Senga is out there throwing 90 mph again…
Not only did I get the pitchers wrong (though it was actually a swap with Senga available out of the bullpen and still likely to play some role, which is why I'll leave the notes above), but they swapped the times on me two. This will be the early evening game with David Peterson the third pitcher on Friday making his first post-season start, but he has faced 36 batters this post-season, striking out just five over four innings in a relief role.
Some may want to call this a breakout season for David Peterson (2.90 ERA), but that's only if you're not paying attention or don't know what to look for. His 10.8 K-BB% was his lowest mark since 2020 (his rookie season), while his ground ball (50.1%), HardHit (42.7%) and Barrels/BBE (7.3%) rates were all on his career marks. What was different? His 78.4% strand rate and 7.8 HR/FB were career bests. Just eight of his 26 barrels left the yard, generating a 3.67 FIP with additional estimators ranging from 4.10 (xFIP) to 4.58 (xERA). He is virtually who he always was, if not a bit worse, despite what the announcers say. The problem is that his ERA was so much higher than his estimators in some of his previous years, so we shouldn't expect him to regress back that four, but to exactly what the estimators suggest.
Peterson had a 54 point split this season, that increases to 93 by Statcast (xwOBA). This should help neutralize some of the big lefties a couple of times through the order before employing Senga against the more right-handed portion of the lineup (though he has reverse splits too). Peterson had an unimpressive 94 Stuff+ and 96 Pitching+ to go along with a 4.53 Bot ERA with everything except the slider (18.4%, 40 PB grade) ranging from a 47 to a 54 PB grade.
Opp wRC+: 117 (114 Road)
DEF: 7/1
B30: 4.66
BSR: 3
This is an interesting spot. I have concerns about both pitchers, built around velocity drops, though they handled it very differently in Game One. I have some concerns about bullpens too, though again, more Mets. Both are reverse platoon pitchers, which you'd think would be advantage Mets, but not by the way most of their RHBs have swung the bat (Vientos absolved) in this series). Maybe the injuries (Nimmo, Senga, Lindor) have finally caught up with this team. While there is no line yet on this game, follow me on Action Network (Rocky Jade) in case I find something actionable. Perhaps a total if the weather holds up, though Miller behind the plate will factor into that too. I currently have the Dodgers as the smallest of favorites (both full game and F5) with a total around eight considering Miller and park effects, but not weather. Updates as necessary during the day on Friday.
Update I
First, let's note that while there is weather improvement in Citi (same in Cleveland, mid-50s with little wind), it still only gets us to the mid-60s with a 10 mph wind blowing in again.
Carlos Mendoza appears to have succumbed to pressure to remove Martinez and Iglesias from the starting lineup (Winker/McNeil), despite Flaherty's reverse split. And also despite the splits, you can't blame him. They've been near automatic outs. He's also elected to start Peterson over Senga, which probably just swaps the order of the two pitchers today.
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