Thursday 10/17 ALCS (3) /NLCS (4) Thoughts & Analysis

Two baseball games for one of the last times this year. We start with the third game of the NLCS, where the Cleveland gang has been incredibly frustrating if it weren't for sloppy defense (wild pitches, errors and lapses in judgement) and untimely hitting (so many runners stranded). The Mets and Dodgers will pick up with Game Four, but this open is being written well before Game Three even starts. 

It's supposed to be a bit warmer at Citi Field on Thursday, around 60, with a near double digit wind still prevailing with a similar temperature and slightly less wind in Cleveland. Both parks should play pitcher friendly. Nic Lentz and Dan Iassogna are both fairly neutral, very slightly hitter leaning umpires, if anything. 

LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented/projected lineup(Roster Resource) Fielding Run Value
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average this post-season (this is new)
BSR: Projected Lineup Base Running Runs

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Yankees @ Guardians

Clarke Schmidt was on his way to a breakout season with a 19 K-BB% through 11 starts before hitting the IL at the end of May. He didn’t return until September, posting a 15.1 K-BB% over his final five starts, though with a HartHit rate exceeding 43% in four of the five. None the less, Schmidt’s Stuff+ actually improved to 119 since his return.

On the season, his 2.85 ERA is well below still very fine estimators ranging from a 3.58 FIP to a 3.92 xFIP. An 80% strand rate was the main reason for that. Batters from the left-hand side had a .305 wOBA and .302 xwOBA against Schmidt this year, which is an improvement from last season, while RHBs had a .275 wOBA, but also a .302 xwOBA. Schmidt’s best pitch is a curveball (18.2%, 1.5 RV/100, 64 PB grade) that should see some success here (Guardians 0.7 wCU/C since the deadline was fifth worst in the league). Schmidt’s cutter (35%, 0.7 RV/100, 56 PB grade) should be another advantageous pitch (Guardians -0.35 wCU/C is bottom third of the league). His 115 Stuff+ was up there with the league leaders this year, but with just a 100 Pitching+.

Schmidt struck out four of 19 Royals with one walk last Wednesday, sitting 0.8 mph above his season average velocity on 37 cutters thrown (52%) and 0.2 mph above his season average velocity on 11 sinkers (15%). The remaining pitches were sweepers (15, 21%) and curves (8, 11%). From his 10 whiffs, six came on the cutter with four more (on seven swings) against the sweeper. He basically kept the cutter above the sinker, which was above the sweeper and more concentrated outside against RHBs. Overall, Schmidt lived more around and below the belt than above. The result was three of his eight hard hit batted balls (95+ mph EV) on the ground, but more hard contact than not (five BBE) in all. While it’s not as advantageous to stack LHBs against him as its been in previous years, it’s still better than stacking RHBs. Expect Cleveland to stick with the eight LHBs they lined up against Cole, who actually has a reverse split.

Opp wRC+: 95 (20 K%, 109 Home, 77 & 18 K-BB% Post-Season)
DEF: 6/12
B30: 2.99
BSR: 3

Matthew Boyd signed with the Guardians after Tommy John surgery with no expectations and eight starts later, he’s their number two starter in the post-season. Part of that is because Cleveland doesn’t have many trustable starters. The larger part of it is because he pitched well (19.9 K-BB%, 6.7% Barrels/BBE, 37.1 HardHit% over eight starts), though he did walk six of his last 35 batters during the regular season. His 2.72 ERA was below respectable estimators from a 3.10 xERA to a 4.02 dERA, with all contact neutral ones (usually the better indicator in smaller samples) above three and a half. Batters from either side of the plate were between a .256 and .284 wOBA and xwOBA in that small sample with RHBs 20 to 30 points better. Boyd’s slider (17.3%, 2 RV/100, 38 PB grade) performed well, but was graded poorly and could be a potential problem spot against the Yankees (0.15 SL /C was seventh best since the deadline). The 75 Stuff+ and 95 Pitching+ aren’t going to win Boyd any awards either.

Boyd struck out five of the 19 Tigers he faced in his first ALDS start, walking two with four hits and no runs over 4.2 innings. He led with the fastball (25), but with 23 changeups as well (72 total pitches). His velocity was only up 0.1 mph on the season. Boyd did a solid job of avoiding the middle of the plate, generating 15 whiffs (seven on the changeup) and only four hard hit batted balls (none on the changeup), though also none on the ground. 

Allowed only 33 pitches in his more recent start against the Tigers over the weekend, it was not at all ineffectiveness that got Boyd yanked. He struck out five with a 33 SwStr% (misses on pitches) and 65 Whiff% (misses on swings), but was simply removed because it was the fifth and deciding game of the series. Suspecting as much, Boyd had a little extra oomph (up 1.3 mph over season average velocity), that I wouldn’t expect him to retain in what’s likely a longer outing like this one. The fastball (12) was the only pitch he threw more than six times. Detroit only put two batted balls in fair territory, neither of them hit hard (90.4 mph, 88.9 mph).

Opp wRC+: 117 (107, 8.6 K-BB% Road, 116, 3.0 K-BB% PS)
DEF: 5/27
B30: 3.51
BSR: -9

Dodgers @ Mets

Yoshi Yama posted a dominant 22.6 K-BB% this season, though the 8.1% Barrels/BBE and 41.3 HardHit% were a bit more marginal. All estimators were within half a run of his 3.00 ERA though and went in both directions. He shut down LHBs (.237 wOBA, .283 xwOBA), while RHBs had some success against him (.317 wOBA, .298 xwOBA). Yamanoto had just a 100 Stuff+, but 106 Pitching+ and used three pitches 88% of the time with a 55 grade fastball (40.4%) setting the pace. Then a curveball (23.1%) and splitter (24.2%) at 64 and 58 respectively. He did not exceed 18 batters faced or 80 batters in any of his four starts after returning from the IL or since June 7^th and only threw a combined 123 pitches in his two NLDS starts. The Mets did rough him up a bit early in the season (52.9 HardHit%), doing most of their damage against his fastball, but Yamamoto also struck out nine of 27 batters in that game, one of only five times he reached 100 pitches this season.

The Padres roughed up Yamamoto again in Game One. Two walks, one strikeout and home run plus five runs over three innings (16 batters). Twenty-five of his 60 pitches were fastballs and somebody forgot to tell him he was supposed to throw harder in the post-season because he was only 0.3 mph above his season average, although he only had three regular season starts higher. He only generated five whiffs, 10 foul balls and six called strikes. Of his four hard hit batted balls, just one was on the ground.

Yamamoto finally solved the Padres for the first time in four starts in Game Five of the NLDS. He sat 1.2 mph above his season average velocity in this start and threw that fastball on 32 of his 63 pitches. He threw no other pitch more than 11 times. Yamamoto kept the ball down below the letters and even mostly below the belt, resulting in just three hard hit batted balls off the ground (out of 14 BBE total), but he also generated just four swings and misses. That’s certainly partly because the Padres are the top contact team in the league.

Opp wRC+: 104
DEF: -4/-14
B30: 4.37
BSR: -4

Jose Quintana had just a 10.0 K-BB% this season. It increased to a more respectable 12% over his last 18 starts and 18.5% over his last four starts, including whiffing nine of the 20 Brewers he faced in his last regular season start, but it’s unlikely you’re teaching this dog many new tricks at his age. Quintana’s 3.75 ERA is mostly the product of a .263 BABIP (.303 career and not below .300 since 2018) and 78.2 LOB% (73.6% career, best since 2016). Quintana’s best estimator was a 4.44 xFIP, though he can still hold a team in check when he’s hitting his spots and the Mets are playing strong up the middle defense behind him (as has been the case lately). A bit unfortunate that 22 of his 34 barrels (6.7%) left the park, Quintana’s 37.8 HardHit% this year was nearly two points higher than his career average.

Batters from either side of the plate were between a .308 and .334 wOBA and xwOBA. Quintana had a 16 point standard wOBA split this year, though Statcast shows a 25 point reverse xwOBA split. No pitch in his arsenal reached a 50 Pitching Bot grade, resulting in a 5.19 Bot ERA to coincide with 83 Stuff+ and 93 Pitching+ marks. The changeup (19.3%, -0.1 RV/100, 41 PB grade) and fastballs (22.5%, -0.2 RV/100, 37 PB grade) were the greatest offenders.

Quintana has surprisingly struck out 11 of 44 Brewers and Phillies this post-season. His velocity was in line with his season average in the former, but down a bit in the latter. He generated 11 whiffs in 90ish pitches in both starts, but did a much better job at avoiding the middle of the plate in the first game than he did in the second. Philadelphia batters chased much less (24%) than Milwaukee batters (36%), which helps explain why four of Quintana’s 12 batted balls against the Phillies were elevated and hard hit, compared to just two of 17 against the Brewers. The Dodgers are a more selective team than either of those two offenses, which could cause some problems if Quintana’s command isn’t nearly perfect and probably better than it was against the Phillies.