A rematch of Game Two, where Sean Manaea will face the Dodgers and the Dodger bullpen will face the Mets. The Dodgers have done a decent job of protecting their higher leverage arms with every game in the series being a blowout.
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented/projected lineup(Roster Resource) Fielding Run Value
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average this post-season (this is new)
BSR: Projected Lineup Base Running Runs
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Mets @ Dodgers
Sean Manaea threw a final start stinker against Milwaukee. Yet, he still posted a 22.3 K-BB% over his last 12 starts (16.4% on the season), which coincides with an arm angle change to emulate Chris Sale. His fastball PB grade increased more than five points since that point and his slider/sweeper grade increased over 10 points. His Bot ERA is half a run less than his full season total over this 12 start stretch with his Stuff+ going from below 90 to 96 with a 98 Pitching+. All season long estimators exceeded his 3.47 ERA, but only a 4.04 xFIP by more than half a run. Manaea had a reverse split this season with LHBs about 60 points higher by actual results, but less than 15 points by xwOBA. The Dodgers don’t care which arm you throw with.
Manaea rebounded in his first post-season start, striking out just four of 21 Brewers, but without a walk over five innings, allowing two runs, the first a leadoff home run to Jackson Chourio. Fifty-eight of his 86 pitches were sinkers with 23 of the remaining 28 being sweepers. Manaea was sitting 93.9 mph on those sinkers, as opposed to 92.3 mph on the season and 92.0 mph in each of his final three regular season starts. He was also elevating the majority of those sinkers, which might explain the 19 called strikes, but just five swinging ones, though just two of nine hard hit batted balls (eight sinkers, one sweeper) not on the ground.
He was down to 91.9 mph against the Phillies, below his season average, despite striking out six with two walks over seven one run innings. He once again led with 37 sinkers, a potential problem against the Dodgers, whose 2.26 wSI/C since the trade deadline was more than a full run above the second best offense, who was the only other offense to surpass 1.0. None the less, Manaea once again successfully elevated his sinker and stayed away from the middle of the plate for the most part, generating 19 swinging strikes. Fourteen of those whiffs were generated on the 28 swings taken at his sweeper and changeup. He did allow nine hard hit batted balls (all either changeup or sinker), though five of the m were on the ground.
In his first start of this series, Manaea dominated the Dodgers, striking out seven over five innings. He did hit a wall in the sixth, leading to his exit after four walks and three runs (two earned), but the bullpen held for a 7-3 win. Manaea was down 0.8 mph here, 0.4 mph below his average velocity against the Phillies, but it was a new arm angel the Dodgers hadn’t seen out of him before. This allowed him to generated 11 whiffs on 87 pitches and 37 swings, eight of them on 54 sinkers (25 swings). Again, Manaea elevated those sinkers, but did fall over the middle of the plate a few times. All four hard hit batted balls came from sinkers, but with one on the ground to go with seven batted balls that were not h it hard. Of the 11 batted balls put into fair territory, only three were on non-sinkers.
Opp wRC+: 123 (19.8 K%, 121 Home, 116, 18.6 HR/FB Post-Season)
DEF: 7/-6
B30: 4.59
BSR: 2
If there were to be a bulk pitcher here, I would guess Landon Knack, but he did not last long in Game Two and I’m not even sure the Dodgers care about a bulk pitcher here. Knack has struck out just three of 18 post-season batters with as many walks and five runs allowed. He threw a wild pitch, balked and allowed a home run. You could see why they might avoid him, but then what do they do? Who knows? As stated in the open, all high-leverage relievers should be available. It’ll be interesting to see how the Dodgers navigate if they fall behind early and it looks like Game Seven is a stronger possibility.
Opp wRC+: 105 (107 PS)
DEF: -4/-14
B30: 4.31
BSR: -8
The bullpen stats for the post-season are pretty close, though the Dodger high leverage relievers have performed a bit better. Still, the Dodgers have real edges offensively and with base running. The Mets may have starting pitching and defense in their favor. The logical part of me makes the Dodgers a small to moderate favorite (which they are), but the gut feel is that we could see similar results to Game Two, though in a closer, harder fought game.
Update:
70 degrees w/ a 10 mph wind out to right. No Freeman against the LHP. Just two LHBs against Manaea, who had a bit of a reverse split this year, but that's the entire year on a whole, not after he changed his arm angle. Remember how bad he made Ohtani look in Game Two. Mets duplicating the Game Five lineup. Dodgers opening with Kopech.
Since we won't know if there's going to be baseball on Monday until after this game ends, I'll be back on Monday if there's a Game Seven.
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