Now that we have the Game One pitching sorted out, let's talk some World Series.
LEGEND
Opp wRC+ Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season
DEF Team Runs Prevented/projected lineup(Roster Resource) Fielding Run Value
B30 Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average this post-season (this is new)
BSR: Projected Lineup Base Running Runs
If you find the information on this site helpful, the tip jar is open at mtrollo86@gmail.com on Paypal.
Yankees @ Dodgers
Regular Season: Jack Flaherty was traded to the Dodgers after 18 starts of a 27.5 K-BB%. He was nearly traded to the Yankees, who balked at the medicals and maybe they were right because while Flaherty still posted a 17.9 K-BB% with the Dodgers that dipped to 13.6% over his last seven starts, while his velocity also dropped half a mile per hour post-trade. Flaherty’s 95 Stuff+ and 104 Pitching+ dropped to 92 and 98 post-trade then 90 and 94 over the last seven. The one thing that didn’t change was his quality of contact (7.7% Barrels/BBE, 34.9 HardHit%), but Flaherty was clearly not the same pitcher who began the season at the end of it. Flaherty’s significant reverse split (RHBs .315 wOBA, .311 xwOBA) may be bad news against a predominantly right-handed Mets lineup (though maybe a favor if they keep playing Martinez), who are supposed to have Jeff McNeil available for this series (they do, he hasn’t been used), but could stick with Jose Iglesias and J.D. Martinez (they have), offering Flaherty just a pair of LHBs (Lindor & Nimmo).
Post-Season: Flaherty averaged 93.3 mph on his 42 fastballs in the NLDS. That was exactly his season average and only 0.3 mph above his last seven starts, but 1.5 mph above his last two regular season starts. The bad news is that the Padres still belted two home runs, while only swinging and missing at five of 90 pitches, resulting in just two strikeouts with a walk and HBP over 22 batters. He was charged with four runs. The curveball generated four of the five whiffs. The slider was swung at nine times without a miss and a 95.2 mph average EV. The pair of home runs came off of a slider and a fastball with five more hard hit batted balls, but only one other one off the ground (also a slider).
Seven innings of two hit ball with as many walks, but no runs and six strikeouts is what the Dodgers got out of Flaherty in Game One of the NLCS. This, despite being down to 92.6 mph. He only had a lower average velocity in three starts this season, including his last two. Eight of his 11 whiffs came from the curve and the slider though, as Flaherty buried them below the zone. He did leave several fastballs middle-middle, but was unpunished for it. Mets batters did elevate seven hard hit batted balls (43.75% of contact).
It was because of that last part, I believed the Mets would be able to match up with him well in Game Five and that’s exactly what happened as Flaherty’s velocity was down further, while his command was even worse. Dave Roberts blamed an illness for the performance, but still stuck with him awfully long. He must believe in what he said and be hoping that the extended rest (almost a full week) will once again rejuvenate Flaherty.
The fastball being down 1.9 mph from his season average is probably why he threw only 26 of those and 30 curveballs. Most unfortunately for Flaherty, neither produced a single swing and miss on 23 combined swings (the Mets failed to strike out once the entire game). He got his only two swings and misses on the 14 sliders he threw (seven swings). Flaherty threw very few pitches above the belt and if he did, they were fastballs that were either non-competitive or right in the middle of the plate. Of the 17 batted balls put in play against him, 10 reached a 95 mph EV with only four of those on the ground.
Opp wRC+: 117 (123 Home, 122 Post-Season)
DEF: 6/17
B30: 3.94 (3.76 FIP/4.00 xFIP/4.05 SIERA)
BSR: 3
Regular Season: Gerrit Cole’s 17.9 K-BB% is not just his lowest mark since Pittsburgh, but the first time he’s been below 21% (last year) and second time he’s been below 25% since leaving the steel city. One certainly wonders if there’s been a decline in pitch quality, but Cole did reach a 25 K-BB% or better in 10 of his 17 starts. Four of the seven times he failed to do so were against either playoff offenses (Mets 2x, Orioles, Guardians) or other tough offenses (Red Sox, Blue Jays). None the less, his Bot ERA (3.76) was a quarter run above last year, which was a half run above the year before, while his Stuff+ has dropped from 139 to 121 to 111 over the last three seasons. Cole is still a quality pitcher and a top end of the rotation one, but estimators all exceeding his 3.41 ERA without reaching five do say something.
Post-Season: Concerns appeared warranted, as Cole lasted 23 batters and five innings in Game One of the NLDS against the Royals, striking out just four with two walks and a home run. Four runners crossed the plate, three earned. The velocity was actually up more than half a mph from his season average and tied for his best effort of the season, but he was also much more down the middle of the plate and rarely on the edges of the strike zone. Maybe the stuff doesn't play well enough for him to get away with that anymore, but batters swung and missed at just six of his 80 pitches with 20 foul balls. The real killer was 11 of his 17 batted balls at 95 mph or harder off the bat and only ONE of those on the ground.
Like Flaherty, Cole somewhat redeemed himself in Game Four of the same series, but didn’t also didn’t feature underlying numbers that matched the magnificence of the surface results. He threw seven one-run innings without a walk, though he struck out only four. On 87 pitches, Cole fired 46 fastballs at 0.9 mph above his season average, generating just six whiffs, five of them with another four called strikes on the heater. He again got away with some poorly located pitches. Cole allowed another 12 hard hit batted balls (more than half his contact) with only five of them on the ground. It wasn’t as well a pitched game as the headlines would have you believe. He was fortunate to turn a lot of hard contact into outs in a power suppressing park.
Cole pitches just once against the Guardians, Game Two around a week and a half ago (Tuesday). The Guardians were like the Royals in that they don’t strike out much and don’t have a lot of power. While he struck out another four batters, Cole gave no illusion of a strong start this time out, walking four and failing to completed five innings, while his fastball was right at his season average. He generated 10 whiffs, six of those on 25 swings at the fastball. Here, he was the opposite of Flaherty, living up in and above the zone, failing to find the bottom half of the strike zone with almost anything. However, this time, only one-third of Cole’s 15 batted balls reached a 95 mph EV, though all five of them were in the air and off the fastball.
Opp wRC+: 120 (117 Road & Post-Season)
DEF: -4/-18
B30: 4.38 (4.10 FIP/4.82 xFIP/4.19 SIERA)
BSR: -9
I make the Dodgers as very slight home favorites here and barely slightly more over the F5, which is exactly where the market has this game. My game total just above nine takes into account park effects, but not weather or umpire, neither of which we know for sure yet. As you can probably tell, I'm lower on both of these pitchers than more casual observers might be, though the rest could rejuvenate both pitchers. However, despite the spikes in velocity both experienced in their first post-season starts, the surface results did not match. The surface results did improve with a velocity drop for both in their second starts, but the underlying numbers weren't as strong. Neither was very strong in their third start with further velocity drop. Ironically, both had reverse splits this season (with almost the same numbers) and will face offenses who have been sending five LHBs against most RHPs this post-season.
The Yankees and Dodgers have been just as strong offensively in the post-season as they had been all regular season, which is terrible news for pitchers. Bullpens, which have been bad overall this post-season were both middle of the pack among the 14 post-season qualifiers, the Yankees just three spots ahead of the Dodgers.
The Dodgers get a significant base running advantage, while the Yankees have the far superior defense.
From a series standpoint, the Yankees will follow with some combination of Rodon, Schmidt and Gil. The Dodgers will go with Yamamoto, Buehler and Sir Bullpen. You may think this looks great for the Dodgers considering Buehler's uptick in stuff against the Mets, but it's possible both he and Yamamoto were wind aided at Citi Field.
Like in Game One, I believe the Dodgers should be small favorites here and already with a 10-1 ticket on the Dodgers in the bank, there's no reason to further add to that. In fact, I may hedge and take a two unit win either way. I will return with posts for each game of the series and provide further updates to this post once we get more information (lineups, weather, umpires) and/or I'm able to find something worthy of my attention in the market.
--
Most HRs: Teoscar Hernandez (+1300 FD 0.1u) Hernandez has just a 101 wRC+ this post-season, but hits RHP well (126 wRC+, .210 ISO) and will be facing the reverse splits Cole and then a lefty. Both are power pitchers who are prone to long balls. The park home run factor for RHBs at Dodger Stadium is 126 and also a strong 120 at Yankee Stadium, while the RF porch gets all the publicity. With Flaherty & Yamamoto having reverse splits too, Judge is the obvious choice, but offers a much lower price.
Most Ks: Carlos Rodon (+420 FD 0.4u) not only has the highest strikeout rate this post-season at 37.3%, but the next best starter is Yamamoto (21.2%) and Rodon has done this against a pair of the toughest teams to strikeout in the majors (Royals & Guardians). He’s struck out 22 of the 59 batters he’s faced. If you prefer to play total strikeouts, he’s +350 to accumulate at least 12 and +750 for 14. The ladder starts at 10 (-106) on FD.
MVP: Mookie Betts (+900 DK 0.2u) has worse MVP odds than Stanton. Kind of crazy for a guy who was considered the MVP of the National League before his injury. He’ll be facing the reverse split of Cole twice and Rodon (a lefty) twice if it goes six.
1st Pitch: Jack Flaherty
v SDP 93.1 mph
v NYM (1) 93 mph
v NYM (2) 92.7 mph
He’s started all three games with a fastball between 92.7 and 93.1 mph.
Flaherty 1st pitch 92-92.9 mph +245 FD 0.5u
Flahrety 1st pitch 93-93.9 mph +174 FD 0.5u
If you’re thinking about the same play for Gerrit Cole, here are his 1st pitches of each post-season start
v KCR (1) 96.2 mph
v KCR (2) 95 mph
v CLE 94 mph
This leaks into three of the four categories, showing no profit. If you must, he’ll be about 10 days rested and potentially closer to his peak velocity starting the first game of the World Series. A play at 96 to 96.9 mph is +350 on FD.
UPDATE FOR GAME ONE:
With the information that Carlos Torres (hitter friendly) will be the plate umpire in G1, I've made several plays on the total (0.5u each on o8.5, 04.5 (F5) and LAD o4.5).
Add comment
Comments